10 questions of regression for 2010

With trucks heading to Florida yesterday it’s a good time to look at the questions for what the Red Sox hope will happen in 2010. With breakouts and new levels of performance there is always the possibility of regression. That can also include getting better as you return to the mean. What are the top ten possible regressions for 2010?

10. Can Manny Delcarmen find the plate – While Manny never had great control there was an alarming rate of walks in 2009. He walked 5.13 batters every nine innings or more than a batter every two innings. We found the signs of arm problems here and I think that with health he should be better, but a better walk rate is required for him to be a solid contributor.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade 1B: Kevin Youkilis

A pudgy 25-year old named Kevin Youkilis made his major league debut in 2004, having made waves a year earlier for being the posterchild for Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. In his first game on May 15 in Toronto, Youkilis cranked a home run for his first major league hit off Pat Hentgen. As he came to the bench after the home run, the Sox ignored him as if nothing had happened. Catching on to the hazing ritual, Youkilis grinned and high-fived the air, pretending people were there for him. It’s one of the feel-good stories of the season the Sox would eventually break their curse in.

Due to injury, Youkilis amassed 208 at-bats that season, hitting for a .780 OPS which remains a career low. The following year, he spent much of the year in Triple-A although he did see 79 at-bats in the bigs. 2006 is when Youkilis stepped in as a starter, moving over from his natural position of third base to first.

The Red Sox’s Christmas List

Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, Happy Holidays to everyone!

While I celebrate both Christmas and Hannukah, there’s no denying the holiday that stops America in its tracks — that’s Christmas. That’s why I’ve chosen Christmas as the holiday of choice to reveal certain Red Sox personnel’s holiday gift lists that were acquired in some unseemly ways. And away we go…

2009 Red Sox DiamondView

Back when the DiamondView was created over at Beyond the Boxscore, I was intrigued by the visual application of statistics. The Hardball Times is doing something similar in attempting to bring visuals to statistics. Essentially, DiamondView uses a ballpark to visually show people just how good (or bad) a player was at the four major aspects of the game: hitting, power, defense and baserunning. It can be a great point of comparison method for sabermetricians and a great way for non-sabermetricians to glean value from advanced statistics.

Today, the Red Sox’s DiamondView was released. I’m not putting any pictures in here, so you’ll have to click to see them. But a couple thoughts:

• Wow, I didn’t realize how amazing Kevin Youkilis was.
• Poor Mike Lowell really is a liability at this point, eh?
• And the cult bandwagon of actually appreciating J.D. Drew gets fuller.

Is Casey Kotchman our best bet at first?

As comprised today, Boston has two choices when it comes to filling it’s first/third hole: Slide Youkilis over to third and commit to Nick Johnson as first-baseman… or leave the window open for Beltre with the expectation that Kotchman ends up at first.

The question is:

Is Nick Johnson appreciably better than Casey Kotchman based on actual value?

To me, it’s a rather simple answer: No. Casey Kotchman is the better option than Nick Johnson.

Charlie Saponara: The Red Sox offense, present and future

Charlie Saponara blogs fantasy baseball at Fantasy Baseball 365. Today, he takes a look at how the Red Sox offense is constructed…

It is an exciting time in the baseball offseason. The first weekend of free agent signing is upon us and the winter meetings are right around the corner. There is plenty of time for the Red Sox to make moves that will improve their club for 2010 and beyond, but what does the future hold given the pieces already in place?

BOS 6, CLE 2: Sox Take Two from Cleveland

“Effective” isn’t a term often used to describe Daisuke Matsuzaka’s outings, but that’s exactly what he looked like in last night’s start, as the Red Sox took a second win off of the Cleveland Indians, 6-2.

BOS 3, CLE 0: Sox Snap Losing Streak Against the Tribe

The Red Sox were ready to snap a six-game losing streak at all costs. Unfortunately, it had to come at the cost of Indians rookie starter Carlos Carrassco, who took a Jacoby Ellsbury line drive off the knee cap on the way to a 3-0 loss.

Jon Lester, who suffered an almost identical injury less than a week ago, looked like his old self, throwing a veritable gem for his fifteenth victory of the season, while the bats played small ball to get themselves out of the slump.

TOR 11, BOS 5: Too Much To Ask

Michael Bowden was stretched too thin, giving up five hits and five earned runs in just over two innings of work. The bullpen did not help matters, as Hunter Jones handed the Blue Jays another four on the way to an 11-5 loss.

Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz would not go silently into the good night, but the pitching, or lack thereof, proved to be a bit too much to overcome, especially in a rain-shortened game.

BOS 11, BAL 5: Less than Lester, Still Good Enough

Even an uninspiring performance by Jon Lester was enough to get the job done against an Orioles team that has all but thrown in the orange towel, as Boston beat Baltimore, 11-5, on Saturday.

It was the Red Sox bats that locked up the 12th consecutive series win against the Orioles, behind a shaky outing six inning stretch where Lester gave up ten hits. But as he continued to miss his spots (only 62 strikes over 102 pitches), the offense was busy at work against an already depleted Orioles pitching staff.