Wrapping Up the Offseason

Spring Training is only a day away, and it’s been a busy offseason for the Red Sox in 2010. The team struggled in the playoffs last year after putting up another solid regular season; tweaks were made to sew up the loose ends on the team’s defensive deficiencies. Another front line starter was brought into the fold. Is Lackey here to supplant Josh Beckett in 2011 and beyond, or simply be another high priced compliment to the rotation?

With the Olympics currently underway, let’s review what’s happened this offseason, and see what moves the teams made deserved a spot on the podium.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre replaces Mike Lowell
While the Lowell trade was derailed by an injury the fan base is still scratching their heads over (was Lowell hiding it, was the organization?), the acquisition of Beltre signaled the end of Lowell’s regular playing time. Arguably the most talented defensive third basemen in baseball, Beltre brings his slick glove to Fenway to provide the teams with the defensive wins they had lacked all last season. Even returning just to his 2008 level of offensive woudl make Beltre a 4 WAR player, a huge bonus for the Red Sox with minimal risk.

10 questions of regression for 2010

With trucks heading to Florida yesterday it’s a good time to look at the questions for what the Red Sox hope will happen in 2010. With breakouts and new levels of performance there is always the possibility of regression. That can also include getting better as you return to the mean. What are the top ten possible regressions for 2010?

10. Can Manny Delcarmen find the plate – While Manny never had great control there was an alarming rate of walks in 2009. He walked 5.13 batters every nine innings or more than a batter every two innings. We found the signs of arm problems here and I think that with health he should be better, but a better walk rate is required for him to be a solid contributor.

Adaptation and working the market

Since Moneyball was published in 2003 there has been a clear misunderstanding of what the book meant. I’m sure much of this is by people who never read the book, but perhaps some who missed the message. The message that is spread and widely understood is that Billy Beane was a huge proponent of OBP and that that wins games. If you ask anyone at a baseball game or on a sports talk show what was the point of Moneyball 90% will say OBP. Of course that 90% will also say that Billy Beane wrote the book.

So what was the point in a cliff notes version? Learn what the market has failed to value and use it to your advantage. As of the writing of the book OBP was a largely ignored stat and teams were viewing players like Adam Kennedy as quality players for a solid batting average. This made a market for Beane to attack and he did so effectively. The problem is teams adapted and not only followed his model with greater finances, but also stole his staff.

The Boston Red Sox and What It Means to Spend Wisely

There is a difference between the Red Sox and nearly every other team in baseball – and it’s pretty obvious. How lucky are our home town fans, that our very own Boston squad has significantly more money to spend on players most other teams. Actually, all but one – but who’s counting. Too bad they’re in our division. But that’s alright, so long as we use our resources wisely.

So, what is using our resources wisely?

From the Red Sox’ perspective, it’s much different from most teams. Over the past five seasons, the team’s highest budget was $143 million, registered in 2007. We’ll save spectulating on this year’s budget, which will be quite high, as there could still be some maneuvering left to go, and the value of free agents and draft picks in this economy is yet to be determined. Therefore, we’ll treat 2007 as the team’s theoretical budget through which to speculate on how the team can formulate its spending practices.

Citing the research of analyst Keith Woolner, a theoretical replacement level team would win approximately 44 games. Putting this in perspective, this standard of futility is comparable to the some worst teams of all time, including the 2003 Detroit Tigers (43-119), the 1962 Mets (40-120), and 1952 Pittsburgh Pirates (42-112).

After seeing this, two thoughts come to mind. One, wow, how far have the Mets come since that
disturbingly dreadful inaugural season 47 years ago. The other, what in the hell happened to the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, who found a way to produce a 20-134 record (.130 win percentage) and be doomed to the annals of worst team in MLB history. Ouch. According to the all-knowing Wikipedia, only 3,179 fans attended the team’s first 16 home games…

The Red Sox’s Christmas List

Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, Happy Holidays to everyone!

While I celebrate both Christmas and Hannukah, there’s no denying the holiday that stops America in its tracks — that’s Christmas. That’s why I’ve chosen Christmas as the holiday of choice to reveal certain Red Sox personnel’s holiday gift lists that were acquired in some unseemly ways. And away we go…

Pizza Cutter: Deconstructing Marco Scutaro

Marco Scutaro. Enigma. Late bloomer. Shortstop. Member of Red Sox Nation. Abstract painting?

I don’t have the benefit of living in Boston and listening to Boston talk radio, but I have to imagine that the news that the Red Sox had signed the diminutive Scutaro (oh great, the Red Sox now have the shortest double play combo in baseball history) to a free agent contract split the opinion of the Red Sox faithful. Some probably saw it as a stroke of genius on the part of Theo Epstein. Some probably saw it as a sign that Theo Epstein had a stroke.

Marco Scutaro is a somewhat maddening figure, always cast as something a little better than a utility infielder, but a wanting as an every day player. It probably doesn’t help matters that his name contains the word “Scooter.” And then 2009 happened. Scutaro hit a nifty .282/.370/.409, up from .267/.341/.356 in 2008, and while those aren’t Hall of Fame numbers, he began to look downright respectable as an every day shortstop for the first time in his career. The problem was that it took him until the age of 34 to do it. He’s coming off what might be a breakout year or a career year. I suppose it’s all in whether you think he can do it again in 2010 as to which one it was.

Mike Lowell fails physical in Texas

According to Peter Abraham at Boston.com a major league source has said that Mike Lowell has failed his physical to finalize the trade to the Texas Rangers.

According to a major league source, the third baseman needs surgery on the radial collateral ligament in his right thumb and the trade to Texas that was agreed upon 11 days ago is off.

Sox Fans Grab Mallets While Theo Prepares to Be The Whack-a-Mole

This will certainly be a defining offseason when Red Sox historians look back on Theo Epstein’s legacy as Boston GM. If the acquisitions work, fans and media alike will sing high praise – and the untouchable GM will become all the more invincible. If the moves fail, he will be chastised and become vulnerable for the first time in his career.

It’s difficult to give a grade to Theo at this point of the offseason – much less begin to rip him in the media. For one, there’s still so much work to be done that any analysis is incomplete, especially with Mike Lowell hanging in limbo. On the other hand, the fact that there’s been so much contention over every signing thus far means that there’s likely not a single person left in New England that is happy with our GM – and any failure for the free agents in the upcoming season will be overmagnified. Marco Scutaro, John Lackey, Mike Cameron. There is no concensus – lots of very intelligent people have advocated on both sides for all three acquisitions.

Marco Scutaro is the best of a poor class of free agent shortstops. He’ll end up costing the Red Sox a 2nd round pick and is signed to a very favorable 3-year (or some would say 2-year) deal. He’s a late bloomer who some argue is a one-year wonder. Scutaro will have to be every bit as good as his breakout in 2009 for both sides to be satisfied. A good personnel move? Yes. But, it will be hard for Theo to win this one in the media…

Epstein warning fans about Sox downturn in ‘10?

In Sunday’s newspaper, the biggest caution flag on the 2010 season yet was tossed.

This offseason, one of the hottest debates surrounding the Red Sox is if the team should “go for it” this year — ala sign Matt Holliday/Jason Bay, pull off a blockbuster trade, so on and so forth. The flip side of the argument was waiting until 2011 where there’s a more competitive free agent class, an increased likelihood of a blockbuster trade and a farm system whose window is 2011-2013.

My opinion has been that the Red Sox are going to stand pat and play out 2010 with their club largely intact along with no major changes.

Whether you agree with it or not, it seems as if this is exactly what Boston is going to do.

Thumbs Up to Scutaro

As Harold Ramis once said to Seth Rogen in Knocked Up after Seth knocked up his one night stand, “This is a good thing.” It may have looked tragic at the time, but he got a beautiful daughter out of it and even got to spend the night with Katherine Heigl. Not a bad haul for a drunken mistake.

The same can be said for the signing of Marco Scutaro. It wasn’t quite the way we planned it (myself not included, I like Toronto import, especially given the alternatives), but it’s what we have. Maybe the little guy will grow up to be a Rembrandt, maybe he’ll be an alcoholic, but either way, he’s ours and we need to love him.

But let’s get something straight. There is a lot to like here – and signing Scutaro is like making the best of a bad situation.

The nuts and bolts of Marco Scutaro are that he is an average fielding shortstop with plus offensive skills for his position. These kinds of players do not grow on trees…