This article mostly exists so I could do this. Original Photo (c) 2011 Keith Allison, Flickr

Since the revelation that Mike Napoli has been suffering from avascular necrosis, I’ve wanted to write about the necessity of an insurance policy at first base for the Red Sox. This column has been in the works for a while. Let’s face it, though: a full column about backup first basemen isn’t exactly the most entertaining thing to read, and it’s also not what you would call “stimulating to write,” for me, either. So I thought I would spice it up somehow. But how?

The answer, of course, is Batman.

Why, you ask? Well, because it’s Batman. Who doesn’t love Batman?

That’s what I thought.

So let’s take a look at some candidates to back up Napoli at first, with some choice Batman quotes (and awful Photoshops) along the way.

(Note: Lars Anderson was going to find his way onto this list, until the White Sox snagged him on waivers. He was going to be my favorite option, too. I consider him the hero we needed, but not the one we deserved.)

Lyle Overbay – “…and you can strap up your leg and put your mask back on, but that doesn’t make you what you were.” –Alfred, The Dark Knight Rises

The Red Sox signed Overbay to a minor league contract this past Friday, and the 36-year-old will likely compete for a spot on the major league roster as Napoli’s backup. While a lefty bat off the bench would be ideal for this righty-heavy Red Sox roster, I’m very skeptical Overbay has anything left in the tank.

In 65 games with the Diamondbacks and Braves last season, Overbay produced only 0.1 fWAR and .397 SLG while striking out 26% of the time, far and away a career-high. And this was an improvement over his 2011 season. He’s also consistently rated between “average” and “awful” in terms of his defense at first, so I wouldn’t count on him adding value with his glove, either.

I used to sort of-like Overbay for his on-base skills, but it would seem to me that his time as an effective major league player is up. He’s not what he was. The Red Sox could probably do worse, but they could also certainly do better.

Casey Kotchman – “You see, I’m, a guy of simple taste: I enjoy OBP… and defense! You know the thing they have in common? They’re cheap.” -The Joker (sort of), The Dark Knight

Kotchman’s a difficult guy to get a read on, at least for me. In 2011, he racked up a triple-slash of .306/.378/.422 and accounted for 2.8 fWAR for the Rays, only to follow that up with a 2012 stat line of .229/.280/.333 in only four fewer games.

I don’t think Kotchman is either of those guys, clearly, but more likely something in between. In other words, the prototypical “replacement player.” I think something in the .250/.330/.400 range would be realistic, if not exactly exciting.

Kotchman was formerly a very valuable defensive first baseman, posting fielding ratings of 12.6, 11.7, and 7.8 from 2007 to 2009. However, he hasn’t been able to post a rating higher than 1.6 in that category since then, so it’s possible his glove has slipped in recent years.

I would say Kotchman is probably the safest option, if only because he’ll come for next to nothing and provide at least as much production as Overbay. He’s also been relatively durable, playing in at least 142 games each of the past two seasons. I would not be at all surprised to see him back in Boston this season, even if he’s not exactly the most exciting of additions.

Jim Thome – “And I thought MY jokes were bad.” –The Joker, The Dark Knight

This one is mostly a shot in the dark, as Thome has said previously that he’s likely only a DH at this point in his career and this statement is very, very true.

I mostly suggest him, though, because – IF Napoli can put together a healthy 2013 season, there’s offensive value to be had from Thome as a bench bat and spot-starter at first and DH.

There’s obviously been a decline in Thome’s performance over the past few seasons – as one would expect from a 42-year-old slugger – but he can still get on base (.344 OBP last season) and hit for some power (.442 SLG, .190 ISO). Expecting 2010’s .283/.412/.627 version of Jim Thome is definitely unrealistic, but as a limited bench guy, he couldn’t hurt.

Now, if Napoli were to go down for a significant amount of time, Thome is certainly not capable of manning first full-time. In that event, the Sox would clearly need to pursue other options, which would seem to make a Thome signing unlikely.

Justin Smoak – “Your punishment must be more severe.” “Torture?” “Yes, but not of your body… of your soul.” -Bane, The Dark Knight Rises

Smoak is about as perfect a definition of “reclamation project” as the Red Sox could get without signing Greg Oden (zinger for basketball fans!).

Once upon a time, he was an on-base machine in the Texas minor league system. After three years in the pros, though, he’s failed to record a slugging percentage above .400 and has flirted with the Mendoza Line so often, I’m surprised the two aren’t engaged yet.

Smoak is certain to be a cheap addition should the Red Sox pursue him in a trade, and would find himself firmly in the low-risk, marginal-reward category of player. Sure, he might magically find his on-base abilities again and become the player everybody hoped he would be, but his upside is more likely “Jarrod Saltalamacchia” (more on him in a moment).

Smoak would be a nice experiment, but certainly not the solution for the Red Sox if Napoli were to miss substantial time. It would be a special kind of torture to watch him play first full-time this season, I think. Pass.

Mike Carp – “It’s not about money… It’s about… sending a message…” -The Joker, The Dark Knight

After (inexplicably) trading for Michael Morse a few weeks ago, the Mariners find themselves with a surplus of first basemen, which is why we’re seeing them on this list twice.

Carp posted lofty power numbers through Seattle’s minors and would seem to fit the bill of a “hits the ball hard and strikes out a lot,” kind of player. He seems closer to being a passable major leaguer than Smoak – his triple-slash in 2011 was a very palatable .276/.326/.466 – which would likely make his cost marginally higher. Like almost everybody on this list, he’s largely a butcher in the field, but it would seem as though defense at first is hard to come by at this point.

Carp is also only 26 years old, and if he can develop some skills beyond hitting the ball really hard, he could become the Sox’ full-time first baseman after this year, thereby avoiding the inevitable search for one next offseason. Of course, the Mariners know this too, which is why they may be asking more than Boston would be willing to pay.

As a flyer candidate to back up Napoli, though, Carp would seem to be the best choice – provided, of course, that the Mariners’ asking price isn’t too high.

This picture has nothing to do with the article. Original Photo (c) 2008 Keith Allison, Flickr

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – “You can’t rely on anyone these days. You gotta do everything yourself. Don’t we? That’s okay. I came prepared. It’s a funny world that we live in. Speaking of which, you know how I got these scars?” -The Joker, The Dark Knight

It’s very likely the Red Sox might have to handle this particular situation themselves, but there aren’t a whole lot of internal options when it comes to first base. Salty is a notable exception.

It seems likely that the team will carry all three catchers (Salty, David Ross, and Ryan Lavarnway) into Spring Training, and if there’s concern regarding Mike Napoli’s hip, it could be that all three stick around into the season, as well. I’m not a major fan of switching players’ positions recklessly – what’s up, Manny Machado? – but in this case, catchers tend to transition to first base fairly often, and it may become a necessity.

We all know what Salty does by now – he’s going to hit a lot of home runs, strike out 30% of the time, and not get on base worth anything. He’s an easy projection. I wouldn’t expect him to provide much worse defense than anybody else on this list, either.

The only question regarding Salty these days is whether or not he will be traded. While that mostly depends on whether or not Ryan Lavarnway is ready to start; if he is, Salty is almost certainly more valuable as part of a deal than as Napoli insurance.

Mauro Gomez – “You are just an ordinary man in a cape! That’s why you couldn’t fight injustice and that’s why you can’t stop this train!” -Ras Al Ghul, Batman Begins

It seems like everybody is quick to decide Mauro Gomez is the answer to back up Napoli. I… am not convinced.

Sure, his minor league stats look solid, and he was a decent contributor in his 37 games on the big league team last year, but I haven’t seen enough out of him to suggest he’s anything more than your standard AAAA guy. I can live with Gomez as Napoli’s backup, but only if literally nothing else presents itself.

He’s just an ordinary man, after all.

–

So, with all that said, what conclusions could we draw (apart from “Batman is awesome”)? This late in the free agency period, options at first are very, very thin. Personally, I probably like Carp the most of this group, but should the asking price for him be too high, Casey Kotchman is at least physically capable of standing at first and catching the ball.

Maybe the moral of the story is that Mike Napoli really, really needs to stay healthy this season? Let’s go with that.

The situation is still changing, however. The Sox top contingency plan for Napoli, Adam LaRoche, inked a new deal with the Nationals on Tuesday. While this isn’t a major blow for the Red Sox by any means – a LaRoche signing would have included draft pick compensation, which would seem to be a point of hesitation – it certainly does change the complexion of the negotiations with Napoli.

Put simply, the options for the Red Sox at first base are dwindling. The free agent pool is down to the Casey Kotchman/Carlos Lee tier, which is barely an upgrade over late-season starter James Loney. Staying internal, they could try Jarrod Saltalamacchia at first, although his bat is limited in its own way and the Sox would lose their flexibility to deal Salty for another piece in the future. If anything, signing Napoli is now more crucial than ever.

Could it be, however, that the LaRoche signing opened up a more attractive option than the 33-year-old first baseman, should the Napoli deal fall through? With the re-signing expected to make 1B/OF Michael Morse available on the trade market, it’s certainly a possibility.

Morse was a starting outfielder for Nationals last season after he exploded onto the map with a breakout 2011 campaign. After a disappointing 2012, however, he now founds himself without a home in the starting lineup, since LaRoche is returning to man first base and newly acquired Denard Span will fill his spot in the outfield. While the Nats’ front office may say they’re open to keeping him, it would seem likely a trade is in their future.

With that in mind, is Morse a legitimate option for the Red Sox?

First off, you should know that I live in the Northern Virginia area, and as such, I hear quite a bit about the Nationals (as well as far, far too much about the Redskins). Their recent success has been infectious; I likely own more Nationals shirts than Red Sox ones now – although don’t worry, there can be no doubt as to where my allegiances lie. So when Morse broke out in 2011, I heard plenty about it, because between the underachieving Capitals and the continually awful Redskins and Wizards, the Nationals’ suddenly bright outlook was the talk to the region. I’d never taken much time to examine Morse’s career beyond that, however; I essentially took it on faith that he was a quality player because I ultimately wasn’t quite interested enough to research him further. I knew I wanted him whenever I played MLB 12: The Show, but that was about it. With that in mind, I took brief break from my usual daily entertainment of exploring the ESPN profiles of terrible players – 2012 James Loney was arguably as good as 2012 Ryan Howard, in case you were curious – to make an excursion into the magical world of Fangraphs and stack him up against Napoli. Here’s what I found:

2012 Mike Napoli: .227/.343/.469, .349 wOBA, 30% K%, 13% BB%, .241 ISO, .273 BABIP, 2.0 fWAR

2012 Michael Morse: .291/.321/.470, .340 wOBA, 22.6% K%, 3.7 BB%, .180 ISO, .339 BABIP, 0.3 fWAR

We can safely score this round for Napoli, although neither of player quite set the world on fire last season. Napoli’s fWAR sets him roughly around a league-average player, while Morse’s puts him sizably beneath that. In addition, both players struggled with injuries; Napoli managed 108 games while Morse played in 102.

Both players are not exactly what you would call “disciplined” at the plate, but both bring plenty of pop, placing them both solidly in the “old man skills” category of batters. Also of note: Morse is apparently allergic to walks. We’ll take a look at that in a moment.

The Red Sox are clearly not paying for these players’ 2012 production, however, so let’s examine the career numbers of the two.

Mike Napoli: .259/.356/.507, .371 wOBA, 25.4% K%, 11.9 BB%, .299 BABIP, .248 ISO

Michael Morse: .295/.347/.492, .363 wOBA, 21.8% K%, 5.9% BB%, .344 BABIP, .197 ISO

It’s again a fairly close comparison, although Morse has substantially less significant major league time to go off of. Both have been prone to strikeouts, but Morse’s complete aversion to drawing walks means his on-base abilities are solely predicated on his ability to hit.

That leads me to my biggest concern about Michael Morse. Over his past 3 seasons (346 games) with the Nationals, he has produced astronomical BABIPs of .330, .344 and .339. While it’s possible he’s simply a high-BABIP hitter – and his minor league production before coming to the Nationals suggests that could be the case – any regression could be devastating to his offensive production due to the fact that he can’t draw enough walks to pick up the slack. In that way, he’s the anti-Carlos Pena, a player who can somehow churn out a yearly .340 OBP despite striking out 30% of the time and flirting with the Mendoza line every season.

In my opinion, Michael Morse is simply Mike Napoli with a lower floor and ceiling. 2011 gave us a good example of what can happen when everything breaks his way; similarly, 2012 serves as a warning sign of what can happen when the bottom drops out. Essentially, he’s Napoli with more risk.

But what is the cost of said risk?

Most reports have the Nationals seeking a left-handed reliever and/or starting pitcher depth. Considering the similarities between Morse and Kendrys Morales, it would be reasonable to assume that the deal would be somewhat similar to the one that sent Kendrys to Seattle last month (Jason Vargas). The natural fit in such a trade, at least in my mind, would be Franklin Morales, a relatively similar pitcher to Vargas last year (0.7 fWAR for Morales versus 0.8 fWAR for Vargas) who fills both of the Nationals’ needs. Given the Sox newfound youth at starter and overall bullpen depth, a Morales-for-Morse swap would be reasonable.

So what’s the final verdict here? Well, for starters, I think he’s a superior option to LaRoche should the Napoli deal collapse. LaRoche’s age (33) coupled with the draft pick compensation signing him would entail led me to believe he wasn’t the ideal fit for a Red Sox organization trying to preserve its youth and rebuild its farm system to being with. While Morales had a successful 2012 campaign, I think he’s a more than acceptable price should Morse become necessary, especially considering the Red Sox starting rotation is suddenly looking very full.

Ultimately, though, it looks as if the pressure may be on for the front office to get Napoli on board. Health issues aside, he’s by far the best available option at first base right now within the Red Sox price range. Should Morse get moved somewhere other than Boston, we could suddenly be looking at James Loney-level production from first base in 2013, and I think I speak for all of us when I say that’s something nobody wants to see again.

Photo: Samara Pearlstein

After losing two of three to the Texas Rangers, the Boston Red Sox (55-57, 10 games back in the AL East) start a 10-game roadtrip with a 4-game skein against the Cleveland Indians (51-60, 9.5 games back in the AL Central). The Red Sox are 4-6 in their last 10 games while the Indians are 1-9 in their last 10. Ouch. The Tribe won their last game but had lost the previous 11 games in a row. That would have made Harry Doyle bathe in Jack Daniels.

STARTING PITCHERS Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Seddon, Zach McAllister and Corey Kluber

Ubaldo Jimenez (versus Felix Doubront in Thursday’s opener) is underperforming by any measure. His 5.29 ERA is 31% worse than the average pitcher in MLB, his FIP 5.28 is 29% worse, and his xFIP of 5.17 is 25% worse. From being third in the NL Cy Young voting in 2010 to anywhere between 25 and 31 percent worse than average in 2012. There either has to be an injury that Jimenez is hiding, or he received some horrible coaching advice. His fastball, which once averaged 96 mph, now averages 92.5. He’s also throwing his once devastating two-seamer with much less frequency (37.9% in 2010, 14.4% this year). I miss the old Ubaldo and I know Cleveland fans would love to see that guy.

Chris Seddon (facing Clay Buchholz) is a AAAA pitcher, nothing more. Every time Seddon has had a little success at AAA he gets called up to the majors, puts up terrible numbers, then gets sent back to AAA. Fastball, two-seamer, slider, change. Tops out at about 90. Not much more to say about him. If the Red Sox can’t hit Chris Seddon, they can all start eating fried chicken and drinking beer right on the bench, for all I care. The rest of the season won’t matter.

Zach McAllister (against Franklin Morales) is actually having a pretty good season, and I’ll bet you didn’t know that. McAllister has a pitching triple slash line of 3.60 ERA/3.75 FIP/3.91 xFIP, which many of us would like some of the Red Sox pitchers to have. McAllister has a K rate of 8.36 per 9 and a walk rate of 2.57 per 9 (3.25 K/BB). I like that. McAllister’s batting average against of .255 is a touch high, which elevates his WHIP to 1.31. Miss a few more bats and the Indians could have something in McAllister.

Corey Kluber (against TBA) is Chris Seddon with a better fastball. Kluber has put up some gaudy strikeout numbers in the minors but that has come with higher walk rates than one would want. Young pitchers, always trying to do everything themselves. In five games in the majors, that approach hasn’t worked. Kluber’s fastball averages 93.5 MPH and he mixes a hard sinker to go with his slider, curveball and changeup. It seems that Kluber has the tools but hasn’t learned how to utilize them against major leaguers.

EXPECTED LINEUP

1. Jason Kipnis, 2B
2. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS
3. Shin-Soo Choo, RF
4. Carlos Santana, C
5. Michael Brantley, CF
6. Casey Kotchman, 1B
7. Shelley Duncan, DH
8. Jack Hannahan, 3B
9. Ezequiel Carrera, LF

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT

In the past two weeks, Travis Hafner (.333/.368/.667, .437 wOBA, 181 wRC+) hit well before hurting his back. Michael Brantley (.304/.340/.413, .330 wOBA, 108 wRC+) and Carlos Santana (.255/.364/.638, .418 wOBA, 168, 5 homers) also hit well, as did Ezequiel Carrera (.381/.381/.714, .446 wOBA, 187 wRC+) in limited playing time. However, Jason Kipnis (.122/.240/.146, .203 wOBA, 20 wRC+) and Casey Kotchman (.167/.265/.200, .222 wOBA, 33 wRC+) were ice cold.

In the Indians’ bullpen, Vinnie Pestano (1.26 ERA/2.52 FIP/3.42 xFIP) is having an excellent year but his 3.42 xFIP and his .228 BABIP probably means that his success is unsustainable. Chris Perez (3.98 ERA/2.59 FIP/3.33 xFIP) is 29-33 in save chances this season but has blown two in a row. The rest of the current Indians bullpen are varying degrees of average.

INJURIES

RHP Carlos Carrasco (recovery from September 2011 Tommy John surgery) is out for the season. 3B Lonnie Chisenhall (fractured right ulna bone), LHP Rafael Perez (strained left lat muscle) and CF Grady Sizemore (lower back, right knee) are on the 60-day DL. DH Travis Hafner (back stiffness) is on the 15-day DL.

AND WHAT ABOUT THE RED SOX?

The 2012 Red Sox are so frustrating. When they pitched well they couldn’t hit. Now the hitting is coming into form and they can’t pitch. 2011 was a train wreck but that only lasted for one horrible month. This team gets into fender benders every couple of days.

In the past two weeks, Adrian Gonzalez (.460/.509/.720, .514 wOBA, 228 wRC+) continued his scorching post-All Star form, and he is joined by Cody Ross (.362/.392/.532, .393 wOBA, 145 wRC+) and Carl Crawford (.327/.346/.694, .433 wOBA, 172 wRC+). However, Jacoby Ellsbury (.208/.278/.313, .270 wOBA, 61 wRC+), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.219/.306/.313, .266 wOBA, 58 wRC+) and Ryan Kalish (.158/.273/.211, .231 wOBA, 34 wRC+) need to get a few ground balls with eyes.

As for the starters, first the good news. Clay Buchholz (1.20 ERA/3.61 FIP/3.83 xFIP) and Franklin Morales (1.50 ERA/3.25 FIP/4.23 xFIP) had excellent fortnights while Jon Lester (4.79 ERA/3.27 FIP/3.09 xFIP) seems to have shaken off his bad form of two weeks ago. Now for the bad news. Aaron Cook (7.47 ERA/6.97 FIP/4.50 xFIP) needs another live chicken to sacrifice. And Josh Beckett (10.57 ERA/9.47 FIP/7.08 xFIP) has made Aaron Cook look good.

In the bullpen, nobody gets the Blutarsky ERA Award. That is a first for this season. Craig Breslow (2.45 ERA/2.81 FIP/5.22 xFIP) has pitched very well since coming from the Diamondbacks, as has Junichi Tazawa (2.08 ERA/3.77 FIP/2.13 xFIP). Mark Melancon (7.94 ERA/5.73 FIP/4.21 xFIP), Andrew Miller (5.79 ERA/5.87 FIP/4.03 xFIP) and closer Alfredo Aceves (6.75 ERA/5.71 FIP/4.67 xFIP) are just not getting the job done. Whither Daniel Bard? Andrew Bailey? El Guapo?

SUMMARY

With their recent 11-game losing streak, the Indians have played themselves out of playoff contention. I’m starting to wonder if that wouldn’t be more pleasing than rooting for a .500 team.

Cleveland Indians - After a hot start, the Cleveland Indians sit 2.5 games behind the AL Central leading Chicago White Sox.  Offensively, they’re pretty well positioned at the moment at every spot except left field and first base.  Youk won’t be playing LF anytime soon, but he certainly would be a massive upgrade over Casey Kotchman who is hitting a dreadful .209/.282/.307. 

Milwaukee Brewers - When the Brewers lost Prince Fielder to the Tigers via free agency, they knew they’d have a tough time replacing his production at first base.  Still, they had 26-year old Mat Gamel, a promising offensive prospect (albeit defensive liability), so all was seemingly not lost–and then Gamel tore his ACL 24 games into the season; leaving Travis Ishikawa as their starting first baseman.  While Ishikawa has performed better than expected in a small sample, he’s 28 years old with little track record of hitting at this level.  Only 6.5 games out in a wide-open National League, the Brewers would be smart to kick the tires on Youk in hopes of making a large offensive upgrade.

New York Mets - This pretty much sums it all up right here.  Ike Davis is hitting .160/.226/.274 after 190 plate appearances.  If the Mets want to stay in the thick of things in the very deep NL East, they’ll need to find a way to improve their production at first base.  Now, the only question that remains is:  Can they afford Youk?

Philadelphia Phillies – I know I mentioned the Phillies in Monday’s column, but the complications with Ryan Howard‘s Achilles injury make Youkilis a potential target for first base as well.  In fact, Howard’s situation is so potentially dire, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel indicated Chase Utley may play some first base if/when he returns from injury.  56 games into the season, their first basemen have produced a .268/.335/.416 line, which is roughly league average.  While that’s probably a little better than expected, I doubt the Ruben Amaro is enamoured with the idea of Ty Wiggington, John Mayberry, and Jim Thome splitting first base duties for too much longer.  Honestly, I see Utley as the more likely option, but they may opt for Youk if push comes to shove.

San Francisco Giants - While I have been one of the biggest proponents of the “Free Brandon Belt” movement, he’s performed poorly enough at the plate where even I think he may need to be benched.  Unfortunately for the Giants, Brett Pill and Aubrey Huff are their only options to replace him.  Yeah.  Dark days indeed.  Since Belt has a discernable major league talent (he gets on base), he continues to get the lion’s share of plate appearances.  Either way, the Giants need offense.  This is especially true in light of the Pablo Sandoval sexual assault case that is pending.  I’m not sure who Brian Sabean would trade to the Red Sox in exchange for Youk, but they desperately need to add another offensive piece to their roster.  Plus, Youk is nearly the perfect Sabean player:  30s, well played, and perpetually injured.  Now, if only Youk would stop drawing walks…

Photo: Samara Pearlstein

Having lost two of three to the lowly Royals, the Boston Red Sox (12-18) return to Fenway Park to start a six-game homestand against the first place Cleveland Indians (17-15). First place? Somebody get Harry Doyle some more Jack Daniels.

STARTING PITCHERS – Derek Lowe, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Tomlin and Justin Masterson

Derek Lowe (versus Josh Beckett in Thrusday’s opener) seems to have been reborn, and it has come by throwing fewer sliders. In 2011, Lower threw 24.9% sliders, with resulted in a 5.05 ERA (however, note that Lowe’s 2011 BABIP was .327 and his FIP was 3.70, so some luck was at play). However, in 2012, Lowe has reduced his slider percentage to 11.9%, and his ERA has dropped to 2.39 (but note that his FIP is 4.06). Worrying for Lowe is his terrible 0.83 K/BB and concomitant 1.49 WHIP but he is also stranding baserunners at a 82.7% clip.

The bloom is off the rose for Ubaldo Jimenez (against Clay Buchholz on Friday). He has become an average pitcher for the Indians after being a star for the Rockies. Jiminez’s fastball velocity, averaging 96 MPH in Colorado, is down to 92 MPH this season. He has a 5.05 K/9 and a terrible 6.31 BB/9 and a 1.60 WHIP in 2012. Although Jimenez’s ERA is a respectable 4.04, his BABIP is .245 and his FIP is 5.75, so he is pitching worse than his results show. Basically, Colorado sold their stock in pets.com just before internet stocks crashed.

Josh Tomlin (opposing Felix Doubront on Saturday night) is an intriguing pitcher. His fastball is sort of slow (89 MPH average) and flat, as is his cutter. However, Tomlin has a killer curve and knows how to hit the edges of the zone. In 2010 and 2011, Tomlin had a .274 and .253 BABIP, so it seemed he was due for a regression. However, although his ERA hasn’t really improved yet in 2012, he is striking out 7.01 batters per 9 innings, only walking 1.82 batters per 9, and has an impressive 3.21 FIP. It wouldn’t surprise me if Tomlin improved as the season goes on.

Justin Masterson (facing Daniel Bard in Sunday’s finale) had a stellar 2011 but is coming back to the pack in 2012. Most notably, Masterson’s walk rate has increased from a good 2.71 in 2011 to an ugly 5.31 in 2012. Masterson has also given up four homers in 2012 after giving up only 11 in all of 2011. Masterson’s velocity is down across the board (about 2 MPH for his fastball, sinker and slider), and he has reduced his fastball percentage from 44.8% in 2011 to 18.8% in 2012. These are troubling signs for Masterson.

EXPECTED LINEUP

1. Johnny Damon, LF
2. Jason Kipnis, 2B
3. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS
4. Travis Hafner, DH
5. Carlos Santana, C
6. Shin-Soo Choo, RF
7. Michael Brantley, CF
8. Casey Kotchman, 1B
9. Jack Hannahan, 3B

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT

Asdrubal Cabrera has become the star of the Indians. So far in 2012 Cabrera is hitting .337/.420/.531 with a .407 wOBA and 164 wRC+. Also off to good starts are Carlos Santana (.265/.397/.431), Jason Kipnis (.265/.341/.470) and the healthy Travis Hafner (.265/.400/.456). However, Aaron Cunningham (.227/.320/.273), Michael Brantley (.233/.282/.319) and Shin-Soo Choo (.236/.358/.326) could be doing better.

In the bullpen, Nick Hagadone (0.96 ERA and a 1.66 FIP, with a very lucky .136 BABIP), Joe Smith (2.93 ERA, 3.99 FIP) and Vinnie Pestano (2.08 ERA, 2.95 FIP) are pitching very well. Dan Wheeler is pitching terribly (5.59 ERA, 6.78 FIP and a .250 BABIP), and it seems that Tony Sipp has been incredibly unlucky (8.00 ERA, 2.06 FIP, .414 BABIP).

INJURIES

RHP Carlos Carrasco is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is out for the season. CF Grady Sizemore (lower back, right knee injuries) is on the 60-day DL and could possibly return in June. LHP Rafael Perez (strained left lat) is on the 15-day DL, and his return is not yet scheduled. 3B Jack Hannahan (groin) is day to day but is expected to play in the Red Sox series.

AND WHAT ABOUT THE RED SOX?

That I am pounding Sam Adams Imperial Whites should tell you all you need to know. Over the last week the bullpen (with the exception of Franklin Morales) pitched pretty well (no, Darnell McDonald is not a member of the bullpen). However, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard and Felix Doubront had poor starts. On the hitting side, Dustin Pedroia (.360/.515/.600, .473 wOBA, 204 wRC+) and Adrian Gonzalez (.367/.387/.467, .373 wOBA, 135 wRC+) got hot, but nobody was hotter than Will Middlebrooks (.304/.304/.826, .477 wOBA, 207 wRC+, 3 homers, 9 RBI). Unfortunately, David Ortiz (.240/.345/.440, .321 wOBA, 98 wRC+) came back to Earth, and Mike Aviles (.219/.265/.313, .235 wOBA, a lousy 39 wRC+) became a black hole at the top of the lineup. As Emily Litella said, “It’s always something.”

SUMMARY

The Indians are hitting and walking their way to a certain level of success. If Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez recover their success, Grady Sizemore gets healthy and Travis Hafner stays healthy, the Indians might be able to hang in there in the American League Central.

INJURY REPORT

Boston: Bobby Jenks, left back tightness (Placed on the 15-day on DL June 8); Rich Hill, left elbow sprain (Placed on the 15-day DL on June 3, retroactive to June 2) Franklin Morales, left forearm strain (Placed on the 15-day DL on May 29, retroactive to May 26); Daisuke Matsuzaka, sprained elbow (Placed on the 15-day DL on May 17, transferred to the 60-day DL on June 3); Junichi Tazawa, right elbow surgery (placed on the 60-day DL on March 26)

Tampa Bay: Jeff Niemann, lower back strain (Placed on the 15-day DL on May 6, retroactive to May 5)

GAME NOTES

In a game that probably few people saw, Josh Beckett perhaps gave the best performance of his career last night, pitching a one-hit, no-walk, complete game shutout of the Rays. In the final game of the nine-game road trip, Clay Buchholz hopes to repeat Beckett’s gem. In seven starts against the Rays, Buchholz is 3-2 with a sterling 1.81 ERA. In his last start against the Yankees, Clay got the win, pitching seven innings and giving up just one run on three hits and two walks, while garnering six strikeouts. Clay needs to be careful when Casey is at the bat: Kotchman is 6 for 9 against Buchholz.

The Rays’ nasty lefty David Price takes the mound tonight. Price was hittable in his last start against the Orioles. He gave up four earned runs on eight hits (two home runs) and one walk, while striking out six. Price is 4-2, 3.18 against Boston in his career. Darnell McDonald has had some success against Price, going 4-12 with a homer against the southpaw.

Lineups

Red Sox

1. Darnell McDonald, CF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
4. Kevin Youkilis, 3B
5. David Ortiz, DH
6. Jed Lowrie, SS
7. Carl Crawford, LF
8. Mike Cameron, RF
9. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C

Tampa Bay

1. Johnny Damon, DH
2. Ben Zobrist, 2B
3. Matt Joyce, RF
4. Evan Longoria, 3B
5. Casey Kotchman, 1B
6. B.J. Upton, CF
7. John Jaso, C
8. Sam Fuld, LF
9. Reid Brignac, SS

Fun Facts

- The Red Sox pitching staff lead the American League with 250 strikeouts and a K/9 of 7.43 on the road .

- The Sox love southpaws: they’ve won their last 10 games in which the opposing starting pitcher was a lefty.

- On June 16, 1938, Jimmie Foxx walked an AL record six times (in nine innings) in a 12-8 Red Sox Victory against the St. Louis Browns.

- And for today’s Totally Untrue Fun Fact: Roberto Luongo requested political asylum in North Korea today. Congratulations, Bruins!

Kotchman to Seattle

With all the positive moves the Red Sox have made this off-season, it’s a bit curious that Casey Kotchman became the first player expendable in the wake of the Adrian Beltre acquisition.

Following the trade, the party line claimed that Kotchman became obsolete – and expendable – with four starting-caliber corner infielders on the roster. While it is certainly true that the team does not need four such players to man two positions (Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Beltre, Mike Lowell, Kotchman), it seems as if the team has forgotten that they have been aggressively shopping Mike Lowell since November.

Following a trade of Mike Lowell – whose occurrence is a near certainty – the team is likely to be without a quality reserve corner infielder. Sure, Jed Lowrie and Bill Hall will be able to man the position in the event of injury and off-days, but what kind of upgrade do they provide over Kotchman?

In the event of a significant injury to Beltre or Youkilis, both Hall and Lowrie would be completely miscast as a full-time option. In addition, with Beltre missing 51 games this past season, entrusting the insurance policy to either option is a very dangerous proposition.

Handing Lowrie the job for any extended period is a poor option with wrist injuries and difficulty at the plate ruining his 2009 season.

Hall, on the other hand, has declined considerably at the plate since his career year in 2006. Posting a .740 OPS in 2007, he followed that up with a .689 figure in ’08, before collapsing last season to the tune of .201/.258/.338 in 334 at-bats.

For a team with championship aspirations, these are not the types of player that should be leaned on – even as a contingency plan.

Which begs the question – why trade Kotchman?

Though Kotchman would be somewhat expensive for a bench player in 2010, with some pundits projecting a $4 million arbitration figure for the first baseman, the deal seems poor given the options available.

Maybe the best move at this point would be to keep Mike Lowell. As Epstein stated in a recent article from the Red Sox homepage, perhaps Lowell will be able to embrace a role as a part-time player with the team.

“ ‘We’ll probably be able to put Mike in a situation either here or elsewhere where he can make an impact on a team. If he’s a little bit slower rehabbing or hasn’t quite gotten back to the position where he can play regularly, then I think Mike feels like if he’s going to have a complementary type role, he’d rather have it here, better in Boston than anywhere else, the way he feels about the Red Sox and the way we feel about him. I know it might look awkward from the outside, but it’s a situation that will probably take care of itself as long as we stay on the same page, and we certainly are right now.’ ”

Even with the hip and finger maladies that accompany Lowell, it would be odd if the team would be unable to find another organization that would take him on – assuming that the team will pay a significant portion of his salary. With the third base vacancies across the league, it would be an upset if a team would not take him on at the $3 million that Texas was willing to accept.

But, is a trade of Lowell really the best move that the Sox could make? If Kotchman were still in the fold – a reliable, $4+ million player for 2010 – it would make some sense: save the money and lean on Kotchman to spell Youkilis and Beltre. But, with no other reliable options, the team could run itself into some serious trouble by letting Lowell go.

With the team saving just a projected $3 million by trading their veteran third baseman, it would be hard to argue against keeping him. Though the team would be criticized for employing a $12 million role player, a $9 million write-off is certainly worse. It seems as if the weight of the team’s $146 million payroll is getting very heavy.

Chapman to the Reds

According to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, the Cincinnati Reds have come to terms with Aroldis Chapman on a 5-year, $25 million deal. Though the Red Sox were reported to be among the front-runners to acquire the left-hander’s services, fans should not frown too much about the development. Despite Chapman’s blazing fastball and stellar scouting reports, a deal of this magnitude is a very risky one for a young amateur.

The Reds may have some serious questions to answer in the upcoming seasons. If Chapman takes longer than two years to become major-league ready, he could turn into a significant waste of resources, as the team will have paid $25 million for the first 2-3 years of his career. In this scenario, it will be difficult for Chapman to be worth anything more than an ordinary free agent – a reward that may be difficult for Cincinnati management to justify, as their payroll topped just $70 million twice in the past decade.

A team with deep pockets such as the Red Sox could have made good use out of such a contract, as their dollars-to-wins efficiency ratio could have made the deal a positive one. Especially with the “bridge years” to develop their prospects, the Sox could have made good use out of such a contract. Still, such a deal would not have been a home run by any means. Even Stephen Strasburg was less expensive, costing the Nationals 4 years and $15.1 million.

Such are the perils of free agency in the Major Leagues. For the Reds’ sake, hopefully they will not get burned.

I think Casey Kotchman should be a warning to any long term success we might expect from Lars Anderson.  This is also just a discussion of their offense as Kotchman has a much better glove.  Kotchman was a much higher draft pick going in the first round of the 2001 draft while Anderson was an 18th round pick.  So what is it that makes these two have anything in common?

First is that they have excellent plate discipline.  Even at the minor league level they both have between a half a walk to a full walk for every strikeout.  Anderson strikes out quite a bit more, but he walks a lot more too.  All things being equal Kotchman would probably have a better average, but their OBP would be close.

An interesting comparison is how Baseball America viewed them.  In 2005 BA ranked Kotchman #6 and had this quote from a scout.  “He’s such a good hitter and he’s still developing. I think he’ll easily hit 30-plus homers in the majors. As we have seen that power never came and now Kotchman is more of a 10-15 homer guy at a power position.

In 2009 BA came back and ranked Anderson 17 and commended his OBP skills.  At the same time The Scouting Book commented he would some day hit 40 homers when given the chance.  While two similar scouting reports is not enough to call them the same it is interesting to see there power was banked on at a later age.

Thankfully through the site Minor League Splits we have access to the batted ball line for both of these players and this is where we can see what is going on.  In 2005 with 356 ABs Kotchman smoked the infield with 57.9% ground balls.  Since reaching the majors he has averaged 52.7% ground balls.  Anderson we can see is swinging the same way with a career minor league ground ball rate of 54.3%.

This is a problem since none of these grounders are going to leave the ball park.  With a 50%+ ground ball rate he is going to only have around 30% fly balls.  How many homers can he hit like that?  Well homers are a factor of your fly ball rate and your HR/FB (Homer per fly ball rate).  Only one player with a fly ball rate at 30% or less topped 20 homers and that was Joe Mauer.  Two players had more than 20 at a 32% flyball rate; Micheal Young and Hunter Pence.

To reach 30 homers he would need a HR/FB rate at 20% at a minimum and only 12 players in 2009 had that much power.  While he is only going to be 23 this year and still growing it’s a lot to ask him to be one of the top players in HR/FB.  Kotchman has a career HR/FB of only 8.9% and had more power when in the minors.
Scouts are starting to question the power as you can see John Sickels dropped him to a B- grade and had this to say.

“A difficult grade, but I’m going to give him an injury mulligan and see what he can do with a fresh start. Like Rizzo, will he have the home run power you want in a first baseman?”

Last year before the season he was a A- and his comments were much more glowing of his future power.

“Will hit for power and average, I’m confident home runs will increase.”

Next year is going to be a huge year for Lars Anderson and a showing of power is the key to his future. He is in danger of being passed by Anthony Rizzo on more prospect lists and already behind him on John Sickels 2010 list. In case your curious Rizzo is only hitting 36% ground balls, which is good news for his power to increase.

This all means that Anderson has to count on his OBP skills, but that might not be enough at a power position like first base.  His defense is also rating as neutral at best and probably below according to most systems.

Anderson seemed to be the next prospect in line entering 2009 to force his way into the Red Sox lineup, but things have turned around in the matter of one season.  Many prospects list are unsure how far to drop him, but he has definitely fallen.  He is a major reason the Red Sox feel they are in a bridge season for prospects and while they dealt Kotchman to Seattle it seems we still have him around.

On the field though Hall hasn’t been the same player for years and his bat has been below league average and falling since 2007.  He got even worse last year and his strikeout rate climbed to 36%.  This trade isn’t expecting a return to the 35 homers that Hall had in 2006, but perhaps a quality backup.

While Kotchman is a solid defender his UZR/150 at first base is only 4.4.  It was better in 2009 at 11.1, but with the infield full and Victor Martinez as a potential backup to spell Kevin Youkilis there is little use for him.  Hall on the other hand has solid defensive numbers at 3 positions and should be fine given chances at the others.

               UZR/150
2B            -1.9
3B              5.7
SS              1.6
LF             -2.3
CF              6.3
RF             -0.1
OF              4.6

In essence they go from a one position defensive replacement to a 6 position defensive replacement and makes the team much more flexible.  This could also free them to deal Jeremy Hermida and make him the fourth outfielder if they could get a solid return for him.

I don’t think this is a great deal, but I can see what the team sees in the deal.  They had no playing time for Kotchman here and found a player who can be a super utility player.  Perhaps a final judgment should wait for the financial portion of the deal.