INTERNAL OPTIONS

Jed Lowrie: No surprise here. Lowrie turned heads in 2008 but lost most of 2009 thanks to injury. Now, Theo Epstein has made it clear he is not interested in relying on Lowrie to produce. With his wrist giving him problems for two years in a row, Lowrie is at the point where he has to fight to have a career as a backup, nevermind a starter. The potential is still there, but the road of opportunity is gone. There is zero chance Lowrie enters spring training as the shortstop du jour, and he may even be left out of the utility position. We’ll give consideration to him sticking as a platoon shortstop in this outlook, though.

Jose Iglesias: 19, Iglesias is apparently a defensive wizard with the glove. He’s drawn comparisons to Omar Vizquel and has skyrocketed up the charts. I’m a bit leery of ascribing so much immediate success to a 19-year old who hasn’t played American professional ball for any period of time, although he did flash potential with the bat. If he can display Alcides Escobar-type contact skills at the plate, we have a real find on our hands. Some are saying Iglesias could be ready by 2010. I say slow down. We don’t know enough. I’m not expecting any type of impact — if there is one — until 2011, which is why I’m not opposed to two-year deals for shortstops on the free agent market. Again… he’s 19.

FREE AGENT OPTIONS

Marco Scutaro: Mike covered Scutaro the other day. There’s a lot to like about the to-be 34-year old. Scutaro is coming off a career season, having hit .282/.379/.409 and has shown an increased understanding of plate patience that won’t suddenly disappear. The knock against Scutaro is that he’s long been a utility player, and there’s a question on whether or not Scutaro really profiles as a starter.

For the last four years, his offense numbers could pass for a starter, but he’ll try to get paid off of his 2009. Expecting a repeat of 2009 is a tough thing to talk myself into. His career line is .265/.337/.384 is more doable, and coupled with above-average defense at short, is easily the best option on the free agent market. If he’s available at $5 million per year for two years (three would be a stretch, but I’d be okay with it) then I’d say sign Scutaro. Any more than that, and I blanch. The key for Boston here is accurately projecting what Scutaro can do the next two years. Bill James likes him at .264/.347/.381 for 2010.

Orlando Cabrera: Cabrera is seeking a two-year, $10 million contract in line with what Jack Wilson got from Seattle. Cabrera got off to a poor start in Oakland but turned it on as the weather got warmer and continued his good play in Minnesota. Offensively, there’s not much separating him from Marco Scutaro (what Cabrera gains in batting average, he loses in plate discipline) and UZR/150 says that Cabrera became a liability in the field this season. On a one-year deal, a flyer wouldn’t be a bad idea. On a two-year deal, I prefer Scutaro because of the volatility of batting average.

Craig Counsell: Counsell is a utility player this late in the game, but he just keeps on ticking despite entering age 39. If none of the other free agent options are available or palatable, would it be a bad thing to install Counsell as shortstop and give Jed Lowrie liberal playing time? I actually really like this idea.

Adam Everett: There’s a school of thought that Everett is just as good as Gonzalez. I don’t buy it. I’m not questioning Everett’s proficiency in the field, but I think Gonzalez is the better hitter. He has some more pop, and Everett hasn’t sniffed a batting average higher than .240 for four seasons now. That said, the offensive separation between the two is not significant. While Counsell represents more offensive upside, platooning Everett and Lowrie would also be a nice idea. In addition, Everett is more likely to hold up over a full season as a starter than Counsell is. Perhaps the former Boston farmhand will want to return to town.

Felipe Lopez: Lopez has been around — despite being 29, he will likely join his seventh team this offseason. Lopez reportedly had attitude problems early in his career, although they have been addressed. His career took a major derailing in his tenure with the Washington Nationals, but past that has been an above-average offensive player. Lopez is by and large a second baseman now, but came up playing shortstop and has played there recently enough to make one think that it wouldn’t be terrible to stick Lopez in there for a season. Lopez has the best offensive potential of any shortstop free agent. The question is: can he field? All public indications say no.

Miguel Tejada: Tejada has wanted to play for Boston in a long time, and is definitely someone obsessed with winning. A lot of people — myself included — feel that he needs to move to third base. In addition, while his .313 average and 46 doubles this past season suggest he has a lot of juice left in the tank, the fact is that he had an .879 OPS at home with a .709 on the road. Not pretty, and while Fenway is a doubles/hitter’s park, I wouldn’t want to commit a ton to expecting Tejada to produce in the American League. He is extremely durable, however, and we could rely on him being in the lineup every day which has tremendous value in itself. UZR/150 can’t seem to decide if Tejada is either a very good or very bad shortstop, so let’s just go with average in the field — which is how he’s always struck me as.

TRADE OPTIONS

Stephen Drew: Drew has been linked to Boston before. Since then, we have continued to hear whispers about Drew being available and Boston being interested, but nowhere to the level that suggested Arizona was actively planning on moving him. He still makes the list here. Arizona is looking to compete in 2010 and I’m not sure how they can do that by trading Drew, unless the value they got at another position was clearly worth it. Off the top of my head, I can’t find any fits.

Cristian Guzman: There’s no chance the Red Sox will trade for Guzman, but I’m putting him here anyways. There was a report earlier this year that Boston put in a waiver claim for Cristian Guzman. The Nationals weren’t interested in letting him go, so Boston got Alex Gonzalez instead. Guzman has a $8 million pact and is being forced to move to second base as the Nationals feel he’s done as a shortstop. I liked him as a waiver claim to play out the year, but what I was leery about was his 2010. There’s no way the Nationals aren’t calling — if they haven’t already — Boston about Guzman. He can hit .300 with decent pop, but his stock has fallen way down from when he was claimed. The Nationals must regret their decision not to let him go.

Hanley Ramirez: The New York Daily News has a note that the Marlins are talking to the Red Sox about a Hanley Ramirez trade. I just don’t see this even being true. Sure, maybe Boston called about Hanley, but if talks progressed past that, I’d be shocked. Off the top of my head, a Hanley trade would have to include Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Jed Lowrie, Casey Kelly, Ryan Kalish/Josh Reddick. He’s in this list simply because of that article linked, but it’s truly a trade that won’t happen.

Ryan Theriot: Nothing to base this on except Chicago’s intent to move Theriot to second base to make way for uber-prospect Starlin Castro. Castro is just 19, so I think Chicago would be making a mistake moving Theriot to the keystone position to start 2010.  If they do so, they might be better off trading Theriot and being able to market him as a shortstop. I’m not going to make any trade predictions here. In addition, Theriot seems like a spitting image of Scutaro or Counsell. Why give up players when you can just sign one of those players?

CONCLUSION

Barring a player available via trade that comes out of nowhere, it looks as if Boston is stuck playing the free agent market. Scutaro is a risk on a multi-year contract, while the other options are nowhere as palatable as Alex Gonzalez was. People outside (and some inside) of Boston can’t believe why Red Sox fans are upset, but … come on. You kind of had to watch him play every day. He seemed to have a knack for getting hits at the right time, Fenway seemed to fit him and he was a great defender. Heck, Boston wanted to bring him back, they just wanted to put it off a couple weeks while they explored other options.

I’m looking at all these options, and I just keep thinking to myself, “Boy, we really whiffed on not signing Gonzalez immediately.”

All told, I like Miguel Tejada the most, with Marco Scutaro and Adam Everett both tied for second. I like Scutaro’s potential better, but Everett would come on short money and (likely) a one-year deal.

If we can sign Tejada to a guaranteed one-year deal with a club vesting option based on offensive production rather than at-bats/plate appearances, then I say go for it.

It’s a slump. That’s it. That has to be it.
Mayday! Mayday! We’re going down… aren’t we?
Sometimes it’s difficult to tell the difference between a slump and a freefall. When given the choice, you always root for the slump, because, what other options do you have?
But there’s a subtle beauty in a slump. Just like a sudden thundershower in July (and we’ve had plenty of those this year in New England), they come and go without warning, are usually brief, and no one but the Almighty seems to know when they’ll end. So, instead of trying to be the Knower of All Things, let’s just try to be weathermen. Shall we?
There have been definite signs that point to a freefall and there have been others that point to a slump. First off, this team is way, WAY too talented to put on a repeat of Kerrigan’s Klub in 2001, when they lost a gut-wrenching 13 of 14 games in late August. However, it’s far from certain that they are the 2004 or 2007 teams that rode off into the sunset.
As for the good signs, this team is about to get a whole lot better. The wounded veterans are about to return and bring some desperately needed reinforcements.
Jason Bay’s hamstring is going to heal, which, coupled with his time away from the plate, should bring an end to his horrific struggles at the dish. That sweet April power stroke should return because, hey, talent doesn’t just disappear. Unless this injury is more serious than is being let on, he’ll be just fine. A break is just what the doctor ordered anyway, as those strikeout issues were getting ridiculous.
Tim Wakefield’s return will also be a welcome sight for sore eyes… and backs, and calves, and whatever else can plague a 40+ year old man. The team needs to be careful not to rush him, but his return as the number three starter will be a huge upgrade over whatever garbage we throw out there in the meantime.
Another thing to keep in mind is that there is more to this rotation than just Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.
This season, there has been a lot of questioning of Brad Penny’s abilities. While he may be sitting on a poor 5.16 ERA, and may be default winner of the inglorious “will it be Penny or Smoltz who actually works out?” contest, there is really a lot to like about Big Brad. He’s got a low walk rate (2.73 BB/9), his fastball velocity is way up from last year (avg. FB velocity: 2008 – 92.4 mph; 2009 – 94.0 mph), and his ERA is currently suffering from some bad BABIP and a poor strand rate.
In short, this guy is a league average pitcher who would go six innings a night on a better defensive team. And, as a wise man once said, if your #4 or #5 starter is league average, you’re in good shape.
Unfortunately, the Red Sox are the owner of one of the worst defenses in the league, and when your defense is this bad, no starter or Act of God can make it any better. Fangraphs.com credits Penny with a 4.52 FIP ERA on the season, although I’m a little more pessimistic about his prospects with such a terrible defense behind him, projecting Penny for a 4.92 mERA the rest of the way.
Don’t fool yourself into thinking Penny should be replaced. His ERA is not his fault. It’s this awful, AWFUL defense. Oh, and if you were wondering: No. Cristian Guzman will not make it any better. This is something we will all have to collectively sweat out until October, then shower off in November.
For the proponents of Chicken Little and the sky is falling, there are some gaping holes in this team, far larger than there have been in recent memory.
The days of the megalith offense that is the Boston Red Sox are over. This is the first time since 2002 that David Ortiz won’t be able to put this team on his back and carry it through September. Even Manny’s comparable, but slightly less talented step-brother, Jason Bay, may not be able to contribute at full strength given his recent leg problems.
Further compounding these issues is the fact that there is no safe fifth starter on the horizon. Now that fail-safe Justin Monsterson is gone, John Smoltz has been DFA’d, and Buchholz cannot remember how to throw a fastball, that “ridiculous pitching depth” of April is wearing very thin. Even Daisuke won’t be back until September. Would someone please get Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa some Wheaties?
But, before we all jump ship like the Titanic, remember that there is no perfect team, the division is still within striking distance, and the Wild Card is still in the home team’s hands. Should the Sox play in October, with the injury woes in the past, don’t bet against them.
Losing streaks have a special place in our hearts because of how bleak things seem and how desperate we all become. However, slumps are never all they’re cracked up to be. After all, “the great ones always figure it out.”
If you’ve ever seen Goodfellas, you’d be keen to remember Henry Hill’s famous words of advice from his father, “When you’re down you’re never as low as it seems, and when you’re up, you’re never as high as it seems.” While you should never trust a mobster, the beleaguered Sox fan should heed his advice: Keep the Faith.

MIGUEL TEJADA, HOU — .362/.388/.546, 8 HR, -20.6 UZR/150
$13M 2009, free agent 2010
Tejada is on a team fast going nowhere and will soon supplant the Nationals as the joke of baseball. With an inept general manager, an hands-on owner who knows nothing and a declining Roy Oswalt, the time is ripe to pluck the team’s best hitter.
The Sox have constantly been linked to Tejada in the past and he is one of David Ortiz’s closest friends. Tejada has mentioned during his time with Baltimore that he would love to be a Red Sox.
Three things hold back this possibility, however.

• First, Tejada is a concern defensively. He really should be at third at this stage of his career but so far has been resistant to do so. His Ultimate Zone Rating, averaged out per 150 games, is -20.6. This means he’s cost the team 20.6 runs over 150 games so far this year. (Obviously, there hasn’t been 150 games played yet).
• Second, Tejada’s .362 batting average is unsustainable. Last year, Miggy hit .283/.314/.415 with a .305 BABIP, close to his career .301 BABIP. This year it’s at .365. … but he is showing zero signs of slowing down. It could go either way, but at some point you have to make the decision.
• Tejada pleaded guilty to lying to Congress about his use of steroids, which he had been linked to previously. We know that the Sox are leery about bringing in players who are linked to steroids in any tangible form, so will this work against Tejada enough to make Theo turn away?

CRISTIAN GUZMAN, WAS — .327/.343/.446, 10 2B, -15 150 UZR/150
$8M 2009, $10M 2010
Guzman recently re-upped with the Nationals after rediscovering his stroke. Guz doesn’t walk a lot — never has — but boasts a career .272 batting average. That includes his awful .219 season in 2005 and 2007-9, where he’s never been lower than .316.
Guzman would be an interesting shot if he wasn’t already making so much money. With questionable defense, track record of losing all semblance of having to hit… gee, doesn’t that remind you a bit of Julio Lugo?
Still, it can’t be ruled out as the Nationals are clearly in a rebuilding phase and need pitching.
J.J. HARDY, MIL — .238/.319/.384, 5 HR, 22.9 UZR/150
$4.65M 2009, arbitration 2010
Hardy’s been a name bantered around on this site for a bit now, and his slow start isn’t changing anything for me. I love J.J. Hardy and want him at short for the next five years. He’s not as good as his 22.9 UZR/150 indicates, but doesn’t embarrass himself in the field.
Plus, Hardy has hit 26 and 24 home runs, respectively, the last two years. Now that’s offense we could use. At 27, Hardy still has a long, fruitful career ahead of him and the Brewers just so happen to have top prospect Alcides Escobar behind him.
Ah, but the Brewers are contending and just lost Rickie Weeks for the season. The only way they’d trade Hardy at this time would be to significantly beef up their pitching. Could a Brad Penny, Manny Delcarmen and a Triple-A bat be enough? Maybe, but are the Brewers prepared to go to Mat Gamel full time at third to offset the loss of Hardy’s bat? Probably not.
JHONNY PERALTA, CLE — .260/.345/.328, 21 RBI, 12.4 UZR/150
$3.4M 2009, $4.6M 2010, $7M 2011 club option
Peralta has been playing third for the Indians recently as the club has gone with Asdrubal Cabrera at short and Luis Valbuena at second. With Cabrera’s recent injury, the Indians may elect to move Peralta back to short, showcase his value and deal him instead of moving Mark DeRosa. That’s unlikely, given Peralta’s team-friendly contract.
Peralta’s overall numbers are less than impressive, but that was mostly tied up in April. He’s rebounded to his usual average/on-base percentage (but not power) in May. Considering I just dealt for him in fantasy a few weeks ago, I could really use his power showing up.
The Indians might be interested in dealing Peralta if they could get a Lowrie/Bowden package from the Red Sox, a deal I don’t see the Sox doing.

JACK WILSON, PIT — .264/.291/.380, 12 R, 26.8 UZR/150
$7.25M 2009, $8.4M 2010 club option
Wilson just came back from injury but is posting numbers that he always has. He’s never impressed with the bat and he’s not suddenly going to break out.
What he will do is give a strong glove to the proceedings, which the Sox could use at short. Add in Wilson’s glove and instead of being near the end of the pack in defensive metrics, the Sox would easily vault to the top 10, if not top five.
Can the Sox afford to lose out on more offense by starting Wilson? Don’t forget: for all the defensive woes at short, we’ve gotten pretty good offensive production. We’d be swapping offense for defense. With David Ortiz in the lineup, that makes our lineup that much worse.
(Dis)honorable mentions:
Yuniesky Betancourt (SEA) is hitting .249/.278/.331. The Mariners would love to ship out the 27-year old as he has atrocious defense and negligible value at the plate. Throw in a needed attitude adjustment, and the Sox are staying away.
Orlando Cabrera (OAK) is off to a poor .233/.279/.296 start and shows zero signs of turning it around. With his defense slipping as well, he’s a long shot.
Internally, the Red Sox could elect to fill the position with Jed Lowrie. Lowrie’s wrist gave him problems last year, but he still finished with a strong .258/.339/.400 campaign last year, posting a surprising 24.6 UZR/150.
He had only five games worth of at-bats in April before he was disabled and underwent surgery. If he can return at full strength, it’s a major boost to a Sox club in desperate need of one. Without any moves, Lowrie would easily be the de facto starter, but I don’t think the Sox would mind at all importing another starter and having Lowrie back up (or, if they don’t want to cut ties with Lugo just yet, send him to Triple-A).
So which shortstop should we get?
It seems as if there are two clear candidates: Miguel Tejada and Jack Wilson.
Really, the Sox could go either way on this one. If they acquire Tejada, they’re adding offense to the club in place of defense. If they acquire Jack Wilson, they’re adding defense but will still have an offensive hole.
At this stage, the Red Sox need help both offensively and defensively. That’s why I think Tejada makes more sense than Wilson — he’ll immediately add a bat to the lineup and can serve as designated hitter should the Sox move on from Ortiz. Lowrie would then man short.
If the club acquires a different player to DH (such as Adam Dunn, Nick Johnson or Josh Willingham), then I would be in favor of Wilson.
What do you think?
FIRE BRAND NOTE: I’m headed to Europe! Well, I am next Monday. This weekend, I’m going to Cape Cod for a wedding, so you won’t hear from me here on Fire Brand for an interminably long time: not until July 8th, although since I land stateside on the third, I may check in with a few quickposts. To take my place, former Fire Brander Zach Hayes will be stepping in, so you won’t miss me at all.