More evidence for a healthy Ortiz

An idea I’m mad I didn’t think to use as I was looking more at home run power and distance, but Jeff Zimmerman at Beyond the Boxscore takes a look [...]

This Thank You Is Huge

Our rivals/enemies/counterparts 210 miles to the South came out with their own bit of news on the heels of CC Sabathia’s poor 2 inning performance today (who cares if it’s spring stats, it’s still fun to say!).

With the contracts of future Hall of Famers Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera in their final year this season, there’s been much talk about what kinds of contracts the Yankees should extend to two icons that have been with the franchise for close to 15 years. Let’s take a snapshot of both players from the point they signed their 2001 contracts.

Derek Jeter has averaged 18.9 million per year during his 10 year contract, reaching as high as 21 million this year. Since 2002, he’s been worth 40.1 Wins Above Replacement, averaging about 132.2 million dollars of market value. During that same time period, Jeter has been paid 157 million dollars. While it’s not the return on investment you should see from a player who never officially reached free agency, it’s a testament to what Jeter has been able to accomplish over the years, as the odds normally say a large long term contract like this usually follow the path the Cubs are enduring with Soriano.

What about lineup protection?

It didn’t take long for David Ortiz to ask for a “power” bat to protect him in the lineup after Manny Ramirez was traded. This was oddly timed last year as the team was returning Jason Bay to the lineup and was expecting big things from him. Now with Bay gone Ortiz has stuck to his mantra asking who is supposed to “protect” him now.

This is a mental thing for David, but protection is a very misunderstood idea. The first thing I would hope is that Ortiz would take it upon himself to become the protection. To stop expecting it of others and say “I can hit 35 homers have a .400 OBP and carry this team”. Outside of that we need to understand what is known about protection.

Early studies looked at different numbers and found lineup protection to be largely a myth. Some were small size studies. Others said any effect they found was so small to be considered a myth. So we should just ignore Ortiz’s statement and move on? Not yet.

Davey Beisbol

David Ortiz’ last two seasons have been considered disappointments, there’s no way to spin his plummeting OPS numbers. 2008 and 2009 were Ortiz’ worst seasons since his final days in Minnesota, when he started to look more like a “never-will”, rather than a burgeoning talent.

Interestingly enough, I found something in his baseball-reference page that made me do a double take. David Ortiz’ Hall Of Fame Monitor is extremely close to the range of “likely” Hall Of Famers. Not what I expected.

I never quite considered David Ortiz a Hall of Fame candidate. For as happy as I was for Jim Rice, undoubtedly one of my childhood baseball heroes, I was never convinced he was a Hall of Famer either(actually, I’d still pick Dewey over him). I personally tend of have very high Hall of Fame standards, especially when a body of work without much domination is propped up by “Fear” or some other random reason. When I saw Ortiz’ HOF Monitor score was a 92 (likely HOFers are 100+), I decided I wanted to investigate this further and wanted a player with similar Hall of Fame credentials to use as a comparison. The perfect player? Don Mattingly.

10 questions of regression for 2010

With trucks heading to Florida yesterday it’s a good time to look at the questions for what the Red Sox hope will happen in 2010. With breakouts and new levels of performance there is always the possibility of regression. That can also include getting better as you return to the mean. What are the top ten possible regressions for 2010?

10. Can Manny Delcarmen find the plate – While Manny never had great control there was an alarming rate of walks in 2009. He walked 5.13 batters every nine innings or more than a batter every two innings. We found the signs of arm problems here and I think that with health he should be better, but a better walk rate is required for him to be a solid contributor.

Super Advertising Sporting Event Squares

In honor of the Super Bo.. um, Big Game today (please don’t sue me, Roger Goodell!), Firebrand is going Vegas today and presenting some prop bets for the upcoming season. Which ones would you be laying money on or avoiding?

10-1: Tim Wakefield opens the season in the starting rotation.
Wakefield made his feeling about deserving a spot in the rotation known recently, feeling he’s paid his dues over the past decade.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade DH: David Ortiz

The beginning of the 2000s saw saw such names as Dante Bichette, Brian Daubach and Carlos Baerga man the designated hitter position. Beginning in 2003, a new name was added to these ranks: David Ortiz. Once Shea Hillenbrand was ousted to Arizona in May, Ortiz took over the full-time DH job and carved his place in Red Sox lore as the greatest clutch hitter in Boston history (commemorated with a plaque given by John Henry in 2004) and a major reason why Boston won two titles.

Ortiz finished fifth in the MVP voting in 2003, topping 100 RBI for the first time in his career. He had a quiet ALDS against the Athletics save for his rousing double in Game 4, but gave us a hint of what was to come in the ALCS against New York, cranking two home runs. Ortiz then avoided arbitration by signing a one year deal worth $4.5875 million a year after earning $1.25 million. Such cheap production for such valuable output, much to George Steinbrenner’s anger as he reportedly encouraged GM Brian Cashman to ink Ortiz as a free agent, which Cashman nixed.

Contingency Planning for an Ortiz on the Ropes

As Buster Olney stated in a recent piece, “the Red Sox may look to replace David Ortiz if he struggles again in the first half like he did last year.”

Certainly, the struggles of Big Papi have a lot to say about the success of the team. Like we profiled earlier, David Ortiz is undeniably on the downswing of his career. In what should be the last year of his contract, Ortiz will likely have difficulty living up to his $12.5 million price tag.

The plan outlined by Olney involves a specific scenario under which Ortiz repeats his 2009 first-half struggles, leading to a trade of Ortiz, acquiring a catcher and moving Victor Martinez to DH.

Quite the series of moves.

The first obstacle to any such move involves Ortiz underperforming to such a degree that he repeats his putrid April and May, in which he hit just one home run in 178 at-bats on his way to a .185/.289/.286 overall line…

What to Do With David Ortiz

Ask anyone about the playoff prospects of the 2010 Red Sox and they are sure to tell you that a large part of them are riding on the bat of a resurgent David Ortiz.

Papi has been one of the biggest cogs in the Red Sox machine for the better part of the past decade. Pushing the team to the brink of a World Series appearance in 2003, he lit worlds on fire bringing the club to two world championships in 2004 and 2007.

Then 2008 struck. Downed by an injury to his left wrist, Papi missed 45 games in June and July recovering from his subsequent surgery. Since then, Ortiz hasn’t the same.

Wrist injuries are death on power hitters. They decrease bat control and bat speed – two of the most important components of power hitting.

But, the wrist is just one development in the evolution of David Ortiz as a hitter. He turned 34 this past November, showing signs of aging in his last few seasons. There were PED allegations. And, it wasn’t long before the injury that Ortiz was struggling at the plate, leading to suspicions that Ortiz has become somewhat of a second-half hitter.

Still, what seems to have happened to Ortiz is that his wrist has combined with some of the drawbacks of aging – suggesting that Ortiz’s bat speed has slowed…

The Red Sox’s Christmas List

Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, Happy Holidays to everyone!

While I celebrate both Christmas and Hannukah, there’s no denying the holiday that stops America in its tracks — that’s Christmas. That’s why I’ve chosen Christmas as the holiday of choice to reveal certain Red Sox personnel’s holiday gift lists that were acquired in some unseemly ways. And away we go…