* He has a pretty great sense of humor.  Julian Levine of Giants Nirvana and I made a couple of jokes at his expense on Twitter a few weeks back, and he responded with a light hearted, friendly direct message thanking us for the “shout out.”  Maybe it’s just me, but I thought that was really cool of him.  Also, it allowed me to coin the term “OPSBI’d.”

The reason I’m semi-defending him is not because I want to praise him for being a smart guy or a good writer.  I’m not going to pass judgment on him on either case.  Instead, I find it to be a little cowardly to openly criticize someone else’s work without providing an alternative analysis explaining my position.  To remedy this, I’m going to analyze his list of top 20 free agents, and provide my own analysis.  Please keep in mind that I’m not only far more conservative than the free-wheeling Bowden, but also use a far different methodology.  While I do use fWAR to guide me in helping me determine my valuations, I know and understand it’s inherent limitations.  To help limit fWAR‘s biases, I consulted rWAR, WARP, and its components as a check and balance.

1. Albert Pujols, 1B

3 Year fWAR Trend – 9.0, 7.5, 5.1

Bowden’s Projection – 9/$273M

Chip’s Projection – 8/$210M

Projected Value – $191M

The Pujols camp is reportedly looking for A-Rod (10/$275M) money, but I can’t envision a single scenario where he receives anything near that offer.  The Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies currently have power hitting first basmen locked up indefinitely; the Mets and Dodgers are stuck in financial hell; and the Angels and Giants don’t seem interested in raising their payroll considerably.  That leaves the Cubs and Cardinals as his most likely destinations.  Given the relatively narrow market for Pujols’s services; his “down” 2011 season; and A-Rod’s post signing performance, we won’t likely see a new record set this time around.  It’s too risky.  That said, Pujols is still the greatest hitter in the game.  He should receive a deal that makes him only the second $200M contract player in history.  It’s probably an overpay by $20M overall, but I think the Cardinals pay the premium to keep him in a Cards uniform.

2. Prince Fielder, 1B

3 Year WAR Trend – 6.4, 3.5, 5.5

Bowden’s Projection – 8/$192M

Chip’s Projection – 8/$185M

Projected Value - $171M

Fielder’s appeal, aside from his unbelievable abilities at the plate, is his age.  At only 27 years old, he’s four years younger than Pujols, and has around 3-4 prime seasons ahead of him.  This alone, makes him a incredibly hot commodity.  Considering his lower price tag, we could see a few teams like the Angels, Orioles, Nationals, and Giants sumbit bids.  Save for the Nationals, who were big time players last winter, I don’t see any of the other three teams being serious bidders.  Ultimately, I see him going to the Cubs as the consolation prize for not landing Pujols.  Concerns about long-term durability, weight, and performance projections keep him from breaking $190M.  8/$185M seems like a slight overpay, as I see him valuing at closer to $170M over the next eight seasons.

3. Jose Reyes, SS

3 Year WAR Trend – 6.4 (2008), 2.9, 6.2

Bowden’s Projection – 6/$108M

Chip’s Projection – 5/$90M

Projected Value – $110M

I’m fully prepared to be wrong on this projection, but I’m going with it anyway.  Yes, I realize he’s the best shortstop and leadoff hitter on the market this year.  Given his age and skill set (similar to Carl Crawford‘s), he’s practically guaranteed a six year deal at this point.  Still, I think teams should shy away from going beyond five years if at all possible.  As talented as Reyes is, his injury issues over the past three seasons are a major concern.  He’s played in only 295 of 486 possible games during that time, and has suffered from nagging hamstring issues that could affect his ability to remain at SS over the long haul.  If he remains healthy and remains at SS, he could outperform his next contract.

4. Mark Buehrle, SP

3 Year WAR Trend – 3.4, 3.7, 3.4

Bowden’s Projection – 4/$64M

Chip’s Projection – 3/$40M

Projected Value – $35M

Bowden’s justification for his contract projection if A.J. Burnett, John Lackey, and Jason Schmidt received an AAV of $16M per season, so should Buehrle.  Given how terrible each pitcher had performed after signing their comparable deals, doesn’t this seem a bit shortsighted?  While Buehrle is nothing if not consistent, he’s about to enter his age-33 season with a “meh” skill set.  He has great control and gets hitters to swing at pitcher’s pitches, but he lacks an out pitch and gives up a ton of hits.  To paraphrase Keith Law, Buehrle would get murdered if he pitched in front of a bad defense.  That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement.  He should be a great deal for the right price, but unfortunately that price is nearly half of what Bowden’s suggesting.

5. C.J. Wilson, SP

3 Year WAR Trend – 2.0, 4.6, 5.9

Bowden’s Projection – 5/$75M

Chip’s Projection – 5/$85M

Projected Value – $73M

Bowden’s projection is almost dead on with my estimation of Wilson’s value for the next five seasons.  Still, given the weakness of the starting pitching free agent market this year, I see Wilson bringing home a contract similar to the ones Burnett and Lackey signed in recent years.  Clearly, there are some concerns with injury history, projectability, and control issues among the most commonly mentioned, but overall he seems like a solid investment in the right situation.  He’s proven he can pitch effectively in a hitter friendly environment, and outperformed both Lackey and Burnett in the two seasons leading up to free agency.  The Yankees and Rangers seem to be likely destinations, but I can also see the Nationals and Royals as dark horse candidates.  With C.C. Sabathia off of the market, Wilson’s value should soar.

6. Carlos Beltran, RF

3 Year WAR Trend – 7.6 (2008), 3.0 (2009), 4.7

Bowden’s Projection – 3/$45M

Chip’s Projection – 3/$42M

Projected Value – $56M

At 34, Beltran is still a complete ballplayer who’s capable of playing at a very high level.  Like his former teammate, Jose Reyes, his primary blemish is his recent injury history.  Knee injuries have plagued him recently having missed significant portions of the 2009 and 2010 seasons as a result.  As a result, teams will likely remain cautious about signing the perennial All-Star.  Regardless, I expect him to be a 3.5-4.5 win player over the next few seasons, which would put him in excellent position to outperform his contract.  Ideally, given his injury history, I’d love to see Beltran sign a two year deal.  I don’t think that’s going happen.

7. Aramis Ramirez, 3B

3 Year WAR Trend – 2.2, 0.4, 3.6

Bowden’s Projection – 3/$42M

Chip’s Projection – 3/$42M

Projected Value – $34M

Ramirez is no longer the player he was from 2004 to 2009 when he was posting wOBAs in the .380s and .390s like it was his job, but he’s still carries a tremendous amount of offensive value.  Still, with the market for third basemen being as brutal as it is, he should make out like a bandit this winter.  That’s true even when you’re 33 and defensively challenged.  When your primary competition is Wilson Betemit, Mark DeRosa, and Miguel Tejada; life is good.

8. Jonathan Papelbon, RP

3 Year WAR Trend – 2.0, 1.2, 3.0

Bowden’s Projection – 3/$45M

Chip’s Projection – 4/$56M 

Projected Value – $40M

The problem with closers is that they very rarely provide enough on-field performance value to cover the cost of their contract.  This is true even with elite closers like Papelbon.  Per Fangraphs, the average cost of a win on the free agent market is expected to be worth approximately $4.75M (subject to change) this year.  Even with a 5% inflation rate over each of the next three seasons, Papelbon would need to average 3.0 fWAR through 2015 in order to justify his salary.  While Papelbon has registered three 3 fWAR seasons (including a 3.2 fWAR in 2006) during his career, it’s unreasonable to expect him to maintain that performance indefinitely.  Still, as the premier closer on the market, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get paid.

UPDATE:  With Madson signing a four year $44M contract to remain in Philadelphia, Papelbon’s all but guaranteed a four year deal himself.  Unless he drops his demands, he’s likely priced himself out of Boston.

9. Jimmy Rollins, SS

3 Year WAR Trend – 3.0, 2.5, 3.8

Bowden’s Projection – 3/$39M

Chip’s Projection – 3/$36M

Projected Value – $35M

While Rollins is still a good player, he appears to have entered the decline phase of his career.  Luckily for Rollins, there are a number of teams in the market for a veteran shortstop this winter with the Mets, Giants, Brewers, Braves, and (obviously) Phillies among the most eager.  If Rollins has a smart agent, he’ll shop offers until after Reyes signs in hopes of leveraging his own client.  Rollins could get four guaranteed years (anything is possible when Brian Sabean’s in the mix), but it’s unlikely.  If he does get a fourth year, it will most likely be as a club option.

10. David Ortiz, DH

3 Year WAR Trend – 0.3, 2.6, 4.2

Bowden’s Projection – 2/$25M

Chip’s Projection – 2/$24M

Projected Value – $25M

Do you remember the Derek Jeter saga from last year?  If any contract negotiation has a chance of reprising that kind of drama this winter, it’s going to be the one between Ortiz and Red Sox management.  While 2/$24M seems like a perfectly reasonable deal, I get the impression the Red Sox are going to allow Ortiz to test the market.  As I’ve mentioned a few times before, the market for designated hitters has been very soft over the past several winters.  Given Ortiz’s likely contract demands and his relatively limited market, he could easily end up in Vladmir Guererro territory if he’s not careful.  Ultimately, I think he re-signs with the Red Sox for two years, but not before being humbled by the verital pu pu platter of one year contracts being offered by the other American League teams.

11. Hiroki Kuroda, SP

3 Year WAR Trend – 2.1, 4.1, 2.4

Bowden’s Projection – 1/$12M

Chip’s Projection – 1/$12M

Projected Value – $11M

We are in complete agreement on Kuroda’s projected contract.  Although I’d love him to travel across the country to sign a one year deal in Boston, he’ll likely return to either the Dodgers or Japan.  He’s the quintessential middle of the rotation pitcher every contender needs.

12. Ryan Madson, RP

3 Year WAR Trend – 1.3, 1.3, 1.7

Bowden’s Projection – 4/$40M

Chip’s Projection – 3/$25M

Projected Value – $23M

I’ll be honest.  I’m having a lot of trouble gauging the market for Madson.  I think he’ll have plenty of suitors, which could drive the price up; but I don’t see teams willing to give a relatively inexperienced closer four years at $10M per season.  Then again, that could change if some team grossly overpays for Papelbon and/or Heath Bell.  Still, as a pitcher that’s actually three months older than Papelbon, I’m not thrilled about the idea of giving Madson a longer-term commitment; even if it’s for less money.  I can see his contract reaching as high as 3/$30M.

UPDATE:  Last night, the Phillies came to terms with Madson on a four year $44M contract.  Clearly, I valued Madson incorrectly.  Never underestimate the Amaro Principle.  Anytime Amaro can overpay for a veteran talent (see Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez), he’ll do it.

13. Heath Bell, RP

3 Year WAR Trend – 2.0, 2.4, 0.5

Bowden’s Projection – 3/$30M

Chip’s Projection – 3/$34.5M

Projected Value – $24M

Bell is another tough case.  How we project his contract potential, depends on how much stock you take in his 2011 performance being a fluke.  When dealing with a 34 year old relief pitcher, teams should exercise caution when evaluating him.  Even still, his primary statistics (saves, ERA) are impressive enough that a few teams will ignore the potential warning signs.  He’ll get paid regardless.

UPDATE:  I originally had Bell down for 3/$30M.  After Madson agreed to a contract with an $11M average annual salary, I’m expecting his demands to go up slightly.

14. Michael Cuddyer, 1B/RF/DH

3 Year WAR Trend – 2.8, 0.8, 3.1

Bowden’s Projection – 3/$30M

Chip’s Projection – 3/$35M

Projected Value – $24M

Maybe it’s my bitterness, or my lack of faith in man kind, but I’m going to project the over on Cuddyer’s contract.  If there’s one player this winter certain to experience the “Lyle Overpay” (h/t to David Schubert of Sabeanmetrics), it’s Cuddyer.  Because of his “versatility” (and I use that term as loosely as possible), he’ll likely be overvalued by a number of teams looking to establish maximum roster flexibility.  While it’s true he’s played 1B, 2B, 3B, and RF in recent years (plus LF and CF in the past), it doesn’t mean he’s proficient at any of those positions.  In a perfect world, he would be barred from ever wearing a glove, and relegated to being a DH.  Unfortunately, his bat isn’t strong enough to give 500-600 PAs at that slot.  About to enter his age-33 season, Cuddyer is a man on the decline that probably  should be receiving a 2/$16M deal max.  Because of his perceived intangible and leadership qualities, he’ll receive offers far exceeding that number.

15. Edwin Jackson, SP

3 Year WAR Trend – 3.6, 3.8, 3.8

Bowden’s Projection – 3/$30M

Chip’s Projection – 3/$36M

Projected Value – $40M

When Jackson was progressing through the Dodger farm system, many considered him to be an ace-in-waiting.  While those lofty projections have never come true, he’s developed into a solid middle of the rotation pitcher with excellent stuff.  At only 28 years old, he’s in the middle of his prime, so it’s possible a GM or two might be willing to overbid hoping Jackson reaches his maximum potential.  His mid-90s fastball and devestating slider make it possible, but his spotty control makes the idea seem far fetched.  He’s been pretty consistent over the past three years especially, so that warrants him a three year deal at minimum.  Given his potential and the weak starting pitching market, a four or five yeal is certainly possible; albeit ill-advised.

16. Roy Oswalt, SP

3 Year WAR Trend – 3.0, 4.7, 2.5

Bowden’s Projection – 1/$10M

Chip’s Projection – 2/$24M

Projected Value – $24M

Had there not been questions about his health, Oswalt would have ranked higher than Buehrle on this list.  He’s a solid 3.5-4-win pitcher that has a ton of high pressure experience, and can soak up innings in the middle of the rotation.  The Phillies will be in play to bring him back to Philadelphia, but the Yankees, Red Sox, and (maybe) Cubs will certainly take a look at signing the veteran righty.  He’s certainly a risk, but provided the medicals come back acceptable; he’s worth it.

17. Carlos Pena, 1B

3 Year WAR Trend – 3.0, 1.1 , 2.6

Bowden’s Projection – 2/$17M

Chip’s Projection – 1/$9M

Projected Value – $7.5M

While his 2011 numbers were an improvement over 2010′s, he’s entering the free agent market as the third best first baseman.  In most years that might not be a big deal, but this year he’s up against Pujols and Fielder.  As such, there’s a chance he’ll get lost in the shuffle.  That said, he could become a hot commodity for teams that lose out on the two biggest prizes.  While that could net him a two year deal, his “underwhelming” (by some standards, not mine) production will likely net him a one year pact.

18. Francisco Rodriguez, RP

3 Year WAR Trend – 0.3, 1.4, 1.4

Bowden’s Projection – 2/$17M

Chip’s Projection – 1/$8M

Projected Value – $5M

After spending two-and-a-half disappointing seasons in New York, and being forced to play second fiddle to John Axelrod upon being traded to the Brewers; K-Rod will be looking for an ideal closer role that will allow him to rebuild his value.  He’ll probably start out the winter looking for a two-year contract.  Given his recent stretch of public issues, that seems pretty unlikely.  As a result, I think a one year deal would be most advantageous for the righty.  If he can continue the dominant success he had in Milwaukee in 2012, he could parlay it into a larger deal the following winter.

19. Francisco Cordero, RP

3 Year WAR Trend – 0.3, 1.4, 1.4

Bowden’s Projection – 1/$8.5M

Chip’s Projection – 1/$7M

Projected Value – $2.7M

Cordero’s not as good as his ERA and save totals suggest.  Just four seasons after racking up a 33% strikeout rate with Milwaukee, his rate plummetted to 15.3% this season.  At 36 years old, teams pursuing him should exercise considerable caution.  He still has a serviceable arm, but he shouldn’t be considered your bullpen’s best arm.  Even though, I’m projecting his value at $1.3M for 2012, I still see him getting a pretty sizeable one year deal.  Despite everything we’ve learned about the game, too many GMs still overvalue saves.

20. Joe Nathan, RP

3 Year WAR Trend – 2.1, 1.9, 0.0

Bowden’s Projection – 1/$7.5M

Chip’s Projection – 1/$6M

Projected Value – $5.5M

His 4.84 ERA won’t look pleasing to the average baseball fan, but his 3.96 xFIP indicates he was extremely unlucky with fly balls leaving the yard.  His strikeout rate is lower than it had been pre-surgery, but it’s still acceptable given it’s relation to his walk rate.  At 37, I’m not sure Nathan will ever return to being the championship caliber closer he once was, but he’s a classic low risk/high reward guys that could be called upon to pitch high leverage innings out of the bullpen.  There is reason for optimism.  He posted a 22/5 K/BB ratio in 23 innings during the second half of the season; meaning he could be a comeback candidate next season.

But how long will that last?

Papelbon has been increasingly reliant on his fastball over the last few years, ignoring his his slider (aka ‘slutter’) and for the most part, his splitfinger. Is this a good thing? Mmm… might be. Might not be.

Take for example an article I penned about a year and a half ago titled “Is Papelbon the best closer in the game?” This is in August 2007, and as you read the excerpt, you’ll realize how fast Papelbon has done a 180° to being strictly fastball-oriented.

It’s his constant adaptation to the game. Mariano Rivera crafted a
career out of his cut-fastball. Trevor Hoffman’s changeup is baffling.
Eric Gagne (when he uses it) has a tremendous curveball and changeup.
However, Gagne is struggling to adjust to life with a 93-mph heater as
opposed to 99-mph. Papelbon doesn’t have to adjust to life with a
93-mph heater; he lives at 93, but he can dial it up to 97 on command.
Even if an injury or old age saps his speed in the future, Papelbon
will be able to overcome it.

How? Consider that since he’s stepped foot into the major leagues,
he’s since developed a cut fastball and a splitter go to along with his
high heat. While he can snap off a curve or changeup on occasion, those
are largely forgotten pitches (for now). He’s constantly adjusting,
constantly striving to stay one step ahead of the scouting reports,
constantly trying to befuddle the hitters.

How times have changed. Let’s take a look at Papelbon’s pitch selection since his debut in 2005, courtesy Fangraphs:

As you can see, he actually decreased his reliance on his fastball in 2006 — this is when he was shut down for September with arm troubles, mind you — but since then he’s scrapped any form of off-speed/breaking pitches and relied only on fastball and fast breaking pitches with minimal stress on the arm.

Since then, his fastball reliance has skyrocketed. He clearly possesses an excellent fastball, one that he can spot on command and has great late action.  He throws the fastball because it’s his bread and butter pitch and it’s the one that’s going to get a batter out.

Here’s the problem. What happens when Papelbon starts losing velocity on that fastball? His fastball averaged 95.3 miles per hour last year (92.9, 94.3, 94.3 the three years prior) but that’s not going to last. Velocity is the first to go as a player ages.  That’s not something we’re going to have to worry about for quite a few years, but it’s a logical question to bring up when you factor in his injury history.

Look, when Papelbot’s fastball starts waning, it’s obvious he’s going to have to start relying more on his other pitches. That means more sliders and split-fingers. Maybe even bring back the curve and changeup. These are all things that contributed to Papelbon’s injury.

Chris O’Leary feels that Papelbon is sensitive to future injury due to Papelbon’s hyperabduction:

Some people believe that is is critical that pitchers get their Pitching Arm Side (aka PAS) elbow up above the level of their shoulders at the high-cocked position because they believe that this will help to raise the pitcher’s arm slot. I believe that doing this, which I call Hyperabduction, leads to problems with the rotator cuff and/or the Labrum. What’s more, because a pitcher’s arm slot is a function of their shoulder tilt and not the height of their PAS elbow at the high-cocked position, following this advice with do absolutely nothing to alter a pitcher’s arm slot.

Increasing Papelbon’s reliance on off-speed pitches along with the hyperabduction theory means that Papelbon could have a far shorter career than anticipated — perhaps even follow the Dick Radatz career more than the Mariano Rivera career.

Speaking of Rivera, he’s lasted so long because he’s been very durable and relies on a cut-fastball that is so sickening that even if you know it’s coming and the location, you still can’t hit it. Even though he’s consistently been around 93 miles per hour for the last four years, when (not if) the velocity eventually decreases, he’ll still be able to hang around for a lot longer than most due to his movement. (Trevor Hoffman is a good example.)

Papelbon is around 94-95 now, but even dipping just two miles an hour to 92-93 (he averaged 92.9 mph in 2005) will cause hitters to catch up on his fastball more than normal. It can happen at any moment — just ask Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez, who spent last year averaging 91.9 on his fastball, two years after averaging 94.8.

So why did K-Rod succeed so much this past season when he broke the saves record? His off-speed pitches. His additional looks. Papelbon had that early in his career but doesn’t now and bringing these back may cause him be far more susceptible to injury.

Speculation of the future is pointless, of course. But the way the signs are pointing, Papelbon may indeed be a one-trick pony who will either suffer from decreased velocity (and effectiveness) or increased injury issues in the future.

Enjoy him while you can.

“We’re not really optimistic about our chances of getting anything done while we’re here,” Epstein said. “We’re not really close to anything. We’re talking to some teams, we’re talking to some agents. But I wouldn’t expect anything to come out of these meetings, to be honest.”

Looks like we’ll just have to wait it out.

Let’s take a whirl throughout the rumors in baseball and see what’s going on…

Out west, the San Diego Padres are committed to trading starter Jake Peavy. Kevin Towers has said there is no turning back now, and has narrowed the field to three National League teams. Two of these teams are the Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs. The Braves would send San Diego shortstop Yunel Escobar, doing two things: 1) Putting the Braves in the market for a shortstop and 2) Making Khalil Greene available. The third team is either the Houston Astros or St. Louis Cardinals.

DIn Milwaukee, Doug Melvin picked up Mike Cameron’s option, but the Yankees have now come calling — presumably dangling Melky Cabrera and Ian Kennedy. Melvin is intrigued by this move, as he should be, but is hesitant to move Cameron as long as the possibility exists to retain CC Sabathia — Sabathia and Cameron are good friends. With Alex Rodriguez being solicited for advice on Cameron and rumblings that the Yankees might sign second baseman Orlando Hudson and move him to centerfield, you can expect to see a new centerfielder roaming the new Yankee Stadium next year.

The Colorado Rockies have also reportedly entered the point of no return with Matt Holliday trade talks and Holliday seems like he could move on. There isn’t as much solid ground on Holliday’s potential destinations as there is Peavy, but of course the Red Sox and Yankees have been mentioned. If the Yankees acquired Holliday, they’d have to move Hideki Matsui and are hoping to move him to Seattle. The most likeliest destination is apparently Philadelphia.

Several teams have inquired on Coco Crisp, and no further information is known. I’d bet dollars to doughnuts Crisp is dealt this offseason. Theo Epstein did mention that he felt trade talks were advanced enough that he could make a swap ahead of December 4, the winter meetings. If true, I would expect the talks to either center around trading Crisp or acquiring a catcher.

K-Rod – edorf81

K-Rod’s agent has backed off his demands for a five-year contract while Brian Fuentes’ agent is offering Fuentes to the Mets for four years at $44 million, something the Mets presumably will not bite on as they seem committed to sticking to no more than three years for a reliever. With these two developments, you may see the relief market drying up as more and more people realize how volatile the relief market is and how pointless it is to throw gobs of cash at relievers. Rarely has a big-ticket relief pitcher, upon a long-term, big money signing, gotten through the contract healthy and effective. This is good news for the Red Sox, who are looking to bring in a middle reliever. If the closer market depresses, the middle relief market depresses. The person I’m eyeing is Will Ohman.

The White Sox may trade Nick Swisher and are intent on trading starter Javier Vazquez. The Sox would clearly be interested in both players, and the White Sox are interested in Lugo, but it would take more than Lugo, of course, to land either player.

Running quickly through the Red Sox’s needs/issues:

• Catcher. Will Jason Varitek come off his obscene demands or will the Sox have to trade for a catcher?
• Shortstop. Can Julio Lugo find a home?
• Coco Crisp. We can’t possibly squeeze another year out of this setup, can we? It worked pretty well, but it also was a perfect storm of injuries and other things to get Coco that much playing time.
• Middle relief. We need to add a dependable arm.
• Starting pitching. A back of the rotation starter is being looked at so Clay Buchholz isn’t handed the job in spring training. Paul Byrd could return.
• Mike Lowell. However unlikely, it is at least possible that the Sox could move Lowell if they decide to ante up on Mark Teixeira.

Saves per Inning Pitched (SIP) measures the true worth of a closer. Is he someone who gets cheap saves? Is he someone only used for closing situations? Or is he someone the team depends on, that is used in close games, tie games, or even situations where there is no save opportunity but there is a save-the-team opportunity. SIP is a way to determine who is a closer and who is a relief ace. Which teams use their closer to get the saves, and which use them to keep the game close, to win against the opposition? Saves per Inning Pitched.
There are two limitations.
Limitation One: Said person that is being measured by SIP needs to have at least 50% of all team saves.
Limitation Two: The next person with the most saves on the team cannot have more than 25% of the total saves. Why is this limitation here? Splitting saves means there was no closer. This would reduce SIP to nothing, for it is measuring a closer. (2006 SIP)

There is one change here, and that’s combining the two limitations. In my experience, I have found that even if a closer has 50 percent of a team’s save… it’s still 50 percent. Shouldn’t they have more? In addition, even if there is someone who doesn’t attain the 25 percent threshold to knock off the closer, combined, two people may have gotten more than 25 percent. The idea here is to evaluate only the closers, those that were able to sustain an entire season of doing so. (This is why this statistic is partly flawed: it cannot be applied to everyone, so I don’t recommend it show up on the back of baseball cards one day.)
Looking at the 2007 SIP, the lowest team percentage saves that I feel comfortable allowing in is Jeremy Accardo’s 68 percent, because he netted 30 out of 44 saves, with three going to injured B.J. Ryan (73 percent of non-Ryan saves went to Accardo) and relief aces Jason Frasor and Casey Janssen mooched three and six, respectively. The next lowest percentages go to Bob Wickman and Matt Capps at 56 percent of saves, and Capps was disqualified under the old limitations (Salomon Torres had 38 percent) and Bob Wickman just barely made the cut with Rafael Soriano getting 25 percent. So the new limitation: A player must have had at least 65 percent of all saves.
Looking at the list now, I am much more confident in the accuracy of the statistic. In previous years (and 2007, under the old limitations) people would just squeak into the ratings that had no business being there. Take this year: Brett Myers made the cut even though he started three games. That would skew the SIP because it would factor in his starting innings (even if you just factored in his relief appearances, there’s no way to easily break down how many saves were available the day Myers started becoming a closer to the end of the year. Perhaps when that day comes, we can revisit this limitation.)
Again, this statistic isn’t meant to revolutionize the world; just to give us a glimpse into how certain players (and managers) manage their closers.
What follows is the 2007 SIP. First is the team of the player, then the player’s name, the number of saves they had, the percentage of team saves they had, innings pitched, then the SIP. Notes include the previous SIPs of those closers if applicable. Archives: 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006

Reaction:

• Papelbon predictably was held back for less innings and more save opportunities. He took a large step back from being a relief ace towards trending to being more of a true closer. I believe, and most people agree, that your best pitcher in the bullpen is a closer. If so, he should be pitching more, not less. Injury issues are always a concern, and I understand that. Still, I thought they were a little too cautious at times last year. I will be very interested to see what this year brings.
• Dempster is the one outlier and consistent qualifier for SIP despite losing huge chunks of his saves to other players every year. He’s not expected to close this year.
• Joe Borowski predictably has gotten a higher and higher SIP as the years go by. One trend I’ve noticed is that SIP spikes up dramatically as you age (Hoffman, Jones); as you get injured (Hoffman, Papelbon, Isringhausen), and as you get worse (Borowski, Jones)
• Francisco Rodriguez has been a closer for three years now, all with the same manager and team. Is it any wonder his SIPs are so consistent, considering he’s been healthy those three years?
• How about Francisco Cordero, notching a similar SIP despite switching teams from Texas to Milwaukee? Is this because of Cordero, is it because of the general accepted practices of closers, or just coincidence?
• Not really surprised Joe Nathan has been leaned on more in recent years, ditto Mariano Rivera. The team needed them to.
• Trevor Hoffman is a clear indicator (as is Isringhausen where Isringhausen was healthy, got hurt and then became healthy again) how much injury impacts SIP usage. He wins the 2007 Award for True Closer.
• Used most as relief aces: Kevin Gregg, Ryan Dempster, Mariano Rivera, David Weathers, Al Reyes, Jason Accardo, Chad Cordero. Only Weathers had more than 90 percent of save chances, at 97 percent. He was a true relief ace.

Let’s hear your thoughts. What do you think of SIP? What’s the most significant thing you take away from this statistic? Do you prefer a true closer or relief ace?