Ellsbury and the devil

As we enter 2010 the Red Sox have made large strides to lock up the core of their young players through their arbitration and early free agency years. That raises the question why the Red Sox have apparently made no attempts to start talks to extend him through arbitration starting next season.

Obviously from the title I think the first reason is his agent. Scott Boras as of 2005 had a league average winning percentage in arbitration according to this THT article by Dave Studman. So there isn’t a reason to think he will be tougher to handle in front of an arbitrator. As usual though it will be tough to address his free agency years with Boras who stands strong for getting his clients to free agency as soon as possible.

Perhaps we think Elsbury will be different, but there is a reason he signed with Boras and it won’t be easy. We all know Theo Epstein likes to avoid arbitration, but will he want to lock up Ellsbury and can he? While we make a lot of comments here about Ellsbury’s defense and inability to walk it’s pretty sure the Red Sox think Ellsbury can be the 3.4 WAR player from 2008 again.

Can Jacoby Ellsbury add power to his game?

At NESN, I wrote an article theorizing if Jacoby Ellsbury could add power to his game.

I drew quick and dirty comparisons to Johnny Damon and Carl Crawford, arguing that Ellsbury can expect to see an uptick in power production in the future. I wanted to expound on this here.

Baseball is a game of evolution. The game that’s being played on the field now, while under similar rules hearkening all the way back to the inception of the game, is drastically different.

I think the evolution of Johnny Damon puts things in proper perspective for Ellsbury. (Click ‘Read More’ or the headline to read the remainder of the article and leave a comment.)

Wrapping Up the Offseason

Spring Training is only a day away, and it’s been a busy offseason for the Red Sox in 2010. The team struggled in the playoffs last year after putting up another solid regular season; tweaks were made to sew up the loose ends on the team’s defensive deficiencies. Another front line starter was brought into the fold. Is Lackey here to supplant Josh Beckett in 2011 and beyond, or simply be another high priced compliment to the rotation?

With the Olympics currently underway, let’s review what’s happened this offseason, and see what moves the teams made deserved a spot on the podium.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre replaces Mike Lowell
While the Lowell trade was derailed by an injury the fan base is still scratching their heads over (was Lowell hiding it, was the organization?), the acquisition of Beltre signaled the end of Lowell’s regular playing time. Arguably the most talented defensive third basemen in baseball, Beltre brings his slick glove to Fenway to provide the teams with the defensive wins they had lacked all last season. Even returning just to his 2008 level of offensive woudl make Beltre a 4 WAR player, a huge bonus for the Red Sox with minimal risk.

10 questions of regression for 2010

With trucks heading to Florida yesterday it’s a good time to look at the questions for what the Red Sox hope will happen in 2010. With breakouts and new levels of performance there is always the possibility of regression. That can also include getting better as you return to the mean. What are the top ten possible regressions for 2010?

10. Can Manny Delcarmen find the plate – While Manny never had great control there was an alarming rate of walks in 2009. He walked 5.13 batters every nine innings or more than a batter every two innings. We found the signs of arm problems here and I think that with health he should be better, but a better walk rate is required for him to be a solid contributor.

Views from the bridge

Theo Epstein revisited his “bridge” comment a few months back to the Herald on Saturday. After the myriad of conversations we’ve had here recently, I felt the timing of his bridge wrap-up after the past few (excellent) signings was quite poignant.

“What I meant was, we’ve been a good team,” Epstein said yesterday after the press conference to announce the signing of third baseman Adrian Beltre. “We’ve been to the playoffs six out of seven years, we’ve won 95 games six out of seven years, and I know we’re going to be good when projecting into the future. The building blocks are in place to have a really strong foundation going forward starting in a couple of years.”

Terry Francona confirms Jacoby Ellsbury move to left field

According to Dan Roche on Twitter, Terry Francona has confirmed that Jacoby Ellsbury will be our starting left fielder in 2010. This also means Mike Cameron is in center field and Jeremy Hermida is either the fourth outfielder or on his way out of town.

The Boston Red Sox and What It Means to Spend Wisely

There is a difference between the Red Sox and nearly every other team in baseball – and it’s pretty obvious. How lucky are our home town fans, that our very own Boston squad has significantly more money to spend on players most other teams. Actually, all but one – but who’s counting. Too bad they’re in our division. But that’s alright, so long as we use our resources wisely.

So, what is using our resources wisely?

From the Red Sox’ perspective, it’s much different from most teams. Over the past five seasons, the team’s highest budget was $143 million, registered in 2007. We’ll save spectulating on this year’s budget, which will be quite high, as there could still be some maneuvering left to go, and the value of free agents and draft picks in this economy is yet to be determined. Therefore, we’ll treat 2007 as the team’s theoretical budget through which to speculate on how the team can formulate its spending practices.

Citing the research of analyst Keith Woolner, a theoretical replacement level team would win approximately 44 games. Putting this in perspective, this standard of futility is comparable to the some worst teams of all time, including the 2003 Detroit Tigers (43-119), the 1962 Mets (40-120), and 1952 Pittsburgh Pirates (42-112).

After seeing this, two thoughts come to mind. One, wow, how far have the Mets come since that
disturbingly dreadful inaugural season 47 years ago. The other, what in the hell happened to the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, who found a way to produce a 20-134 record (.130 win percentage) and be doomed to the annals of worst team in MLB history. Ouch. According to the all-knowing Wikipedia, only 3,179 fans attended the team’s first 16 home games…

Tired Legs in Centerfield

After Troy’s article on Ellsbury’s impending shift to left field, some feedback from our readers had some questions about some of the reasons for Ellsbury’s decline in defense this year. Peter Gammons brought up a small story about how Rickey Henderson felt his basestealing affected his performance in centerfield.. yet no where else.

Since it’s the holiday season, I figured why not answer one of our commentor’s question: Is their any data showing that excellent base stealers predictably decline defensively?

Now, collecting this data is not the easiest study I’ve tried. Defensive statistics and qualification per position can sometimes be tough to obtain. Outfielders tend to shift positions more frequently, even over a small sample of years. Defense analysis is something I intend to look into more this year, but to start, here’s a simple look at the past two years of “primary” centerfielders.

Rethinking Jacoby Ellsbury in left field

Earlier today I heard a bit of an interview with Peter Gammons on WEEI and he discussed some interesting topics, but the one that really caught my attention was the discussion on Jacoby Ellsbury. Gammons believed the Red Sox should and are contemplating a move for Ellsbury to left field. I have done some research into this before, but there was a new argument for doing this.

Gammons believes that stealing 70 bases is beating up Ellsbury and making him less effective defensively. His reasoning is a comment he attributed to Rickey Henderson that I have been unable to locate. Henderson claims that his extensive number of steals was beating up his body and effecting his ability to man center field.

Evaluating the 2010 team so far

After adding John Lackey and Mike Cameron the team is starting to take shape. Although most think we need to make another move it’s possible we enter 2010 as we stand now. That isn’t very likely if the Mike Lowell trade is completed, but to start I’m going to look at the roster without any third baseman.

*Here is the explanation of how I calculated the WAR values I will be using. If you want to skip this just know it’s an average of several projections. For those that are interested I used Bill James projection, Fangraphs new Fans Projection (where available) and CHONE projections. To calculate WAR for Bill James I used his batting runs above average and the CHONE defensive projection since Bill does not project defense. Fan projections already account for WAR and needed no calculation. CHONE is batting and defense above league average. To complete the calculation to WAR for Bill James and CHONE I used CHONE PA to calculate replacement level runs and positional adjustment. Unfortunately this double weights CHONE on PA and defense projections. Once I have calculated the three WAR values I sum the team totals and average them.

Better than 2009

Now that that is out of the way we should get an idea of what are good values. In 2009 the Red Sox had the third most runs scored and their batting runs above average totaled 98.8 which ranked second in the league. This includes the whole team and all season. The good news is that the projections so far are much better than that for our group of 8 (Remember no third basemen). Bill James projects a 133.8 runs above average and CHONE calls for 106.