Photo by Kelly O’Connor of sittingstill.net

I don’t know about you guys, but I’ve been kind of bored with the World Baseball Classic so far. I’m wasn’t expecting much, but at least more than these mediocre games.

• Remember a couple seasons ago, where we all said Prince Fielder lost his power stroke because he had just one Spring Training homer? Yeah, me neither. (Fun With Spring Training Stats)

• Mix together some broken ribs, 32 homers, a dislocated shoulder, and what do you get? One serving of Jacoby Ellsbury, the human enigma. (Why Jacoby Ellsbury Is The Most Important Player On The Red Sox)

• I just have to stop hearing about good spring outings by John Lackey. It’s getting my hopes up too high. (John Lackey gets real)

• Everyone goes bonkers over Brian Wilson‘s beard, but no one seems to notice Andrew Miller‘s. You said it, Kanye West: Jesus Walks, and he pitches for the Red Sox. (Andrew Miller cuts down hitters but doesn’t cut his hair)

• He’s no Usain Bolt, but hey, as long as he’s running ’round the bases, I’ll be happy. (Ortiz goes through another round of baserunning drills)

• If you’re a minor leaguer in the Red Sox system, just a heads up – 2013 is not your year. Be alert. (Minor-leaguer Britton arrested for DUI)

• Nate Silver created the PECOTA projection system. PECOTA likes the Red Sox this year. Conclusion? Awesome season ahead. (The Boston Red Sox: PECOTA darlings for 2013)

• I’m sure all you fellow Americans were ever so proud to have Mark Teixeira represent your country at the WBC. It’s really just too bad he can’t anymore. (Mark Teixeira injures forearm, to miss World Baseball Classic)

One thing about the WBC I do like, though, is the ridiculous chants the Taiwanese & Japanese fans have. They’re endearing.

Stephen Drew (Photo: Samara Pearlstein)

Today the Red Sox signed Stephen Drew to a one-year, $9.5 million dollar deal, pending a physical. Drew, the brother of former Red Sox player J.D. Drew, was selected by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 1st round (pick #15) in the 2004 draft. Having hit well at high-A Lancaster (but let’s be honest, anyone can hit there) in 2005, the Diamondbacks put him on the fast track. Drew finished 2005 in AA Tennessee, where he hit .218/.301/.386 in 113 at bats.

In 2006, the DBacks promoted Drew to AAA Tuscon, where he hit .284/.340/.462, .351 wOBA, 108 wRC+ with 13 homers. Drew gained a promotion to the bigs later that season, hitting .316/.357/.517/.366 wOBA/114 wRC+. After a somewhat personally disappointing 2007 for the playoff Diamondbacks, Drew had a career year in 2008, hitting .291/.333/.502/.355 wOBA/109 wRC+ with 21 homers and 91 runs scored. After 2008, however, Drew’s seasons have been slightly below average; Drew’s 2009 OPS+ was 92, he rebounded to a 113 OPS+ in 2010, then regressed to 93 in 2011.

However, on July 21, 2011, everything changed for Drew. On a play at the plate against the Brewers, Drew suffered a horrific ankle break, where his foot twisted 180 degrees from normal. There was some controversy on the length of his recovery but Drew eventually returned to the Diamondbacks on June 27, 2012. However, Drew only hit .193/.290/.311/.269 wOBA/59 wRC+. The DBacks traded Drew in a deadline deal to the Oakland Athletics, where he hit .250/.326/.382/.310 wOBA/97 wRC+ for the playoff-bound A’s. Bill James projects Drew to hit .252/.325/.411/.320 wOBA in 2013.

Drew’s defensive metrics have been all over the place. His Fielding Runs Above Average (based on UZR) have ranged from a terrible -15.5 in 2007 to a pretty good 8.7 in 2010. Drew’s Range Factor per 9 innings have ranged from a high of 4.36 in 2007 to a post-injury low of 3.74 in 2012.

The signing of Stephen Drew means that the Red Sox do not believe that either Jose Iglesias or Xander Bogaerts are ready to man the shortstop position at the major-league level. It remains to be seen whether Iglesias starts the season in Boston as Drew’s backup or in Pawtucket.

Photo: Samara Pearlstein

After losing both of their final home games, the tied-for-last Boston Red Sox (69-87, 21 games back in the AL East) travel to Camden Yards for their penultimate series of the year against the Baltimore Orioles (89-67, 1 game back in the AL East, leading the AL Wild Card by 2 games). The Orioles won their last game, while the Red Sox have lost two in a row.

STARTING PITCHERS: Chris Tillman, Steve Johnson and TBA

Chris Tillman (versus Aaron Cook in the opener) is one of the reasons that the Orioles are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot this season. Owner of a 3.08 ERA/4.10 FIP/4.30 xFIP pitching triple slash line, Tillman improved his ERA by an astounding 2.5 runs per 9 and his xFIP by .5 runs per 9, but interestingly his FIP went up slightly (from 3.99). If you were paying attention, you may have seen this coming. Tillman’s 2011 BABIP was an extremely unlucky .346, so he was due for some good luck. A .300 BABIP is considered neutral, but Tillman blew by that this season, currently sporting a very lucky .244 BABIP for the season. So the real Tillman is probably somewhere in the middle of his 2011 and 2012 seasons.

Steve Johnson (against Felix Doubront) has been awesome for the Orioles since being called up on August 3. Whether in the bullpen or as a spot starter, Johnson has put up some impressive numbers. Johnson has logged a 1.62 ERA/3.05 FIP/3.46 xFIP triple slash pitching line in his short time in the majors. Notably, Johnson’s left on base rate is an astounding 94.0%, but that is most likely a product of his relief work. Just as astounding, Johnson’s ground ball rate is an ugly 22.5%, but he’s surrendered only three homers in 33.1 innings pitched, resulting in an acceptable 8.3% homers per fly ball. Johnson’s walk rate is a touch high at 4.05 per nine, but he offsets that by striking out 11.61 batters per nine. Swing upward, Sox!

TBA (versus Zach Stewart in the finale), as always, kind of sucks.

EXPECTED LINEUP

1. Nate McLouth, LF
2. J.J. Hardy, SS
3. Chris Davis, RF
4. Adam Jones, CF
5. Matt Wieters, C
6. Jim Thome, DH
7. Mark Reynolds, 1B
8. Ryan Flaherty, 2B
9. Manny Machado, 3B

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT

In the last two weeks, the hot Orioles at the bat have been Ryan Flaherty (.357/.438/.786, .501 wOBA, 224 wRC+), Adam Jones (.356/.397/.627, .431 wOBA, 175 wRC+), Matt Wieters (.311/.404/.600, .415 wOBA, 164 wRC+), Chris Davis (.326/.404/.587, .411 wOBA, 162 wRC+) and Nate McLouth (.276/.354/.500, .376 wOBA, 137 wRC+). The cold Birds have been Robert Andino (.194/.286/.258, .259 wOBA, 56 wRC+), J.J. Hardy (.246/.270/.262, .237 wOBA, 41 wRC+) and Endy Chavez (.206/.229/.235, .206 wOBA, 20 wRC+).

The Orioles have excelled in the bullpen this season. Led by closer Jim Johnson (2.60 ERA/3.26 FIP/3.58 xFIP), the Orioles have also gotten great contributions from Darren O’Day (2.35 ERA/3.03 FIP/3.43 xFIP), Pedro Strop (2.33 ERA/3.57 FIP/3.97 xFIP), Troy Patton (2.50 ERA/3.26 FIP/3.35 xFIP), Luis Ayala (2.68 ERA/3.72 FIP/4.01 xFIP), Brian Matusz (1.50 ERA/1.94 FIP/1.96 xFIP) and Matt Lindstrom (2.72 ERA/3.49 FIP/4.03 xFIP). Gotta get to the starters if you want to win against the Orioles.

INJURIES

1B Nick Johnson (right wrist), RF Nick Markakis (recovery from September 2012 thumb surgery), LF Nolan Reimold (bulging disc in neck), 2B Brian Roberts (right hip), LHP Tsuyoshi Wada (recovery from May 2012 Tommy John surgery) and LHP Randy Wolf (torn UCL in left elbow) are out for the season. RHP Stuart Pomeranz (left oblique strain, sore back) is on the 60-day DL. 3B Wilson Betemit (right wrist) is likely out for the remainder of the season. OF Lew Ford (groin) and RHP Jason Hammel (right knee) are day-to-day.

AND WHAT ABOUT THE RED SOX?

The Red Sox are going home with their tails between their legs instead of being carried out on their shields. The only two Red Sox players that make my criteria for hot hitters (over 125 wRC+) are Jacoby Ellsbury (.385/.467/.500, .400 wOBA, 150 wRC+) and Mauro Gomez (.304/.333/.478, .344 wOBA, 112 wRC+), and I stretched a little to include Gomez. Everyone other hitter on the club has a below 75 wRC+ in the last two weeks.

As for the pitchers, Felix Doubront (2.77 ERA/2.26 FIP/3.61 xFIP) and Clay Buchholz (2.25 ERA/3.71 FIP/4.60 xFIP) have pitched very well in the last two weeks. In the bullpen, Craig Breslow (0.00 ERA/1.36 FIP/2.09 xFIP), Rich Hill (0.00 ERA/-1.89 FIP/0.31 xFIP), Scott Atchison (0.00 ERA/2.25 FIP/2.88 xFIP) and Andrew Miller (0.00 ERA/10.11 FIP/11.57 xFIP) shared the Blutarsky ERA Award, although Miller rode his luck hard and put it away wet. Junichi Tazawa (1.69 ERA/0.86 FIP/1.68 xFIP) and Mark Melancon (2.08 ERA/-0.35 FIP/-0.35 xFIP) also excelled.

SUMMARY

Will the Red Sox even show up for this series? Baltimore will, that’s for sure.

Prince Fielder (Photo: Samara Pearlstein)

Having surprisingly taken two of three from the division-leading New York Yankees, the Boston Red Sox (51-51, 9.5 games back in the AL East) come back home to host the Detroit Tigers (54-48, 1.5 games back in the AL Central). The Red Sox are 4-6 in their last 10 games, while the Tigers are 6-4 in their last 10.

STARTING PITCHERS Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello

Max Scherzer (versus Clay Buchholz in the opener) should be a top eschelon pitcher but he stands in his own way. If you had a pitcher who threw 10.99 strikeouts per 9 and had a 3.30 K/BB you would be pleased, right? A pitcher whose fastball averages 94 mph? Sounds good to me. But here’s the rest of the story. Scherzer’s pitching line is 4.49 ERA/3.85 FIP/3.43 xFIP, but his SIERA is 3.22. Why is that? Max is hittable. His average against is a pedestrian .258 and he has surrendered 18 homers in 116.1 innings pitched. Upper eschelon pitchers don’t do that.

Justin Verlander (against Josh Beckett – maybe) is the definition of upper eschelon pitcher. Verlander’s 2012 pitching line of 2.60 ERA/3.09 FIP/3.41 xFIP is a touch behind his 2011 line of 2.40 ERA/2.99 FIP/3.12 xFIP but not tremendously so. His strikeouts are down a touch (8.44 versus 8.96) but he still sports an excellent 4.06 K/BB. Interestingly, Verlander is the rare pitcher who is outpitching his SIERA. SIERA says his ERA should be 3.35 but it’s 2.60. Wow.

Rick Porcello (facing Aaron Cook) hasn’t lived up to the expectations people had for him as the 27th pick in the 2007 draft. His pitching line of 4.56 ERA/3.69 FIP/4.02 xFIP indicates that the Tigers’ defense is hurting him a little, and his .343 BABIP shows a bit of bad luck. However, his 5.18 K/9 and 2.45 BB/9 is on him, and he was billed to be better than that. Add to that a terrible .306 batting average against and a 1.51 WHIP and you see a pitcher who is struggling.

EXPECTED LINEUP

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Quintin Berry, LF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B
4. Prince Fielder, 1B
5. Delmon Young, DH
6. Brennan Boesch, RF
7. Jhonny Peralta, SS
8. Alex Avila, C
9. Omar Infante, 2B

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT

Miguel Cabrera (.283/.377/.652, .431 wOBA, 175 wRC+, 5 homers) and Prince Fielder (.341/.472/.439, .395 wOBA, 150 wRC+) are the hot hitters for the Tigers, as they should be. However, they don’t have many running mates lately. Those on the cold side are Omar Infante (.143/.182/.143, .151 wOBA, -17 wRC+, Puntonian), Alex Avila (.182/.308/.333, .290 wOBA, 78 wRC+) and Delmon Young (.245/.296/.327, .275 wOBA, 68 wRC+).

In the bullpen, Brayan Villareal (1.36 ERA/2.43 FIP/3.38 xFIP) has had a great season, although not as great as his ERA would indicate. Conversely, closer Octavio Dotel (3.51 ERA/1.78 FIP/2.23 xFIP) hasn’t pitched as poorly as his ERA would indicate. Phil Coke (3.02 ERA/2.85 FIP/3.71 xFIP) and Joaquin Benoit (2.87 ERA/3.64 FIP/3.21 xFIP) have also had good seasons for the Tigers.

INJURIES

RHP Al Alburquerque (recovery from elbow surgery), C Victor Martinez (recovering from left knee surgery) and LHP Daniel Schlereth (left shoulder) are on the 60-day DL. LF Andy Dirks (right Achilles tendinitis) and LHP Drew Smyly (strained ribcage muscle) are on the 15-day DL.

AND WHAT ABOUT THE RED SOX?

One step forward, two steps back. Even with the Red Sox taking two of three from the Yankees, I don’t think this is a club that should be buying players. I also won’t join the chorus of people who want to blow up the team. However, some changes must be made. Let’s face it – the Red Sox aren’t going to win the division, and a team really shouldn’t mortgage its future for the one-game chance that the Wild Card has become.

It seems that Josh Beckett is on the market, and I think it’s time he moves on. The Red Sox may not get much for Beckett, even if they eat a lot of salary, and Beckett can veto any deal due to his 10/5 rights, but both parties must see that this is a relationship that has to end.

I would also support a deal for Mike Aviles. Pedro Ciriaco has proven that he can hit major league pitching, and I think he can play shortstop every day for the Red Sox. As one of Fire Brand‘s podcasters, Tim Daloisio, said to me on Twitter the other day, ” If there was a market for Marco Scutaro, there would have to be one for Aviles as well, right?”

The one move that the Red Sox shouldn’t make, but is the most probable move, is to fire Bobby Valentine. Apart from the first few weeks of the season when he was trying to figure out bullpen roles, Bobby V has been an excellent in-game manager. He has a knack for sending out the right hitting lineup, and has been astute in timing his pitching moves. Bobby V may not be as beloved as Terry Francona was in the Red Sox locker room but the last I checked, being beloved wasn’t a requirement for being a baseball manager. Finally, firing Valentine, especially if that is the only move made, would prove once and for all that the inmates are in charge of the asylum, which would make the job that much tougher for any manager not named Terry Francona.

But you come here for numbers. Here you go: Adrian Gonzalez (.365/.377/.615, .424 wOBA, 167 wRC+) and Pedro Ciriaco (.308/.308/.436, .336 wOBA, 106 wRC+) are hitting well in the last two weeks, Mike Aviles (.128/.146/.154, .139 wOBA, -29 wRC+) and Daniel Nava (.111/.273/.111, .207 wOBA, 18 wRC+) aren’t. Alfredo Aceves (0.00 ERA/3.20 FIP/5.01 xFIP) gets the Blutarsky ERA Award. Mark Melancon (17.36 ERA/7.57 FIP/5.73 xFIP) misses Pawtucket. Jon Lester (13.50 ERA/10.00 FIP/5.18 xFIP) misses the strike zone.

SUMMARY

The Tigers are in an unexpected dogfight with the Chicago White Sox for the American League Central crown. If they both play well, there may be a surprise for the loser: one of the Wild Card spots.

Cleveland Indians - After a hot start, the Cleveland Indians sit 2.5 games behind the AL Central leading Chicago White Sox.  Offensively, they’re pretty well positioned at the moment at every spot except left field and first base.  Youk won’t be playing LF anytime soon, but he certainly would be a massive upgrade over Casey Kotchman who is hitting a dreadful .209/.282/.307. 

Milwaukee Brewers - When the Brewers lost Prince Fielder to the Tigers via free agency, they knew they’d have a tough time replacing his production at first base.  Still, they had 26-year old Mat Gamel, a promising offensive prospect (albeit defensive liability), so all was seemingly not lost–and then Gamel tore his ACL 24 games into the season; leaving Travis Ishikawa as their starting first baseman.  While Ishikawa has performed better than expected in a small sample, he’s 28 years old with little track record of hitting at this level.  Only 6.5 games out in a wide-open National League, the Brewers would be smart to kick the tires on Youk in hopes of making a large offensive upgrade.

New York Mets - This pretty much sums it all up right here.  Ike Davis is hitting .160/.226/.274 after 190 plate appearances.  If the Mets want to stay in the thick of things in the very deep NL East, they’ll need to find a way to improve their production at first base.  Now, the only question that remains is:  Can they afford Youk?

Philadelphia Phillies – I know I mentioned the Phillies in Monday’s column, but the complications with Ryan Howard‘s Achilles injury make Youkilis a potential target for first base as well.  In fact, Howard’s situation is so potentially dire, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel indicated Chase Utley may play some first base if/when he returns from injury.  56 games into the season, their first basemen have produced a .268/.335/.416 line, which is roughly league average.  While that’s probably a little better than expected, I doubt the Ruben Amaro is enamoured with the idea of Ty Wiggington, John Mayberry, and Jim Thome splitting first base duties for too much longer.  Honestly, I see Utley as the more likely option, but they may opt for Youk if push comes to shove.

San Francisco Giants - While I have been one of the biggest proponents of the “Free Brandon Belt” movement, he’s performed poorly enough at the plate where even I think he may need to be benched.  Unfortunately for the Giants, Brett Pill and Aubrey Huff are their only options to replace him.  Yeah.  Dark days indeed.  Since Belt has a discernable major league talent (he gets on base), he continues to get the lion’s share of plate appearances.  Either way, the Giants need offense.  This is especially true in light of the Pablo Sandoval sexual assault case that is pending.  I’m not sure who Brian Sabean would trade to the Red Sox in exchange for Youk, but they desperately need to add another offensive piece to their roster.  Plus, Youk is nearly the perfect Sabean player:  30s, well played, and perpetually injured.  Now, if only Youk would stop drawing walks…

Photo - Samara Pearlstein

Having lost the series against the Rays on a tough loss on Sunday, the Boston Red Sox (23-24) welcome the Detroit Tigers (23-24) to Fenway Park for a four-game series. Detroit hasn’t had the start that most expected them to have this season, but the talent is there for the Tigers to climb in the standings of the American League Central.

STARTING PITCHERS – Doug Fister, Justin Verlander, Drew Smyly and Max Scherzer

Doug Fister (against Felix Doubront in Monday’s opener) continues surprising those who remember the beginning of his career. Before Fister’s breakout he relied on a (charitably) average 4-seam fastball (47.8% in 2008 and 62.3% in 2009). In 2010 Fister added a nasty two-seamer to his repertoire (throwing it 25.1% in 2011 and 42.5% in 2012 so far) and reduced the use of his four-seamer (34.3 % in 2011 and 10.5% in 2012). Thus Fister started missing bats. Fister’s BABIP dove from an average .302 in 2010 to .272 in 2011 and .261 in 2012, but if batters can’t square up on a pitch, hits turn into outs. Slightly worrying for Fister is that although his ERA is 1.84 in 2012, his FIP is 3.54 and his xFIP is 3.02, which would still be good but not as stellar as his ERA might indicate.

Justin Verlander (facing Daniel Bard) is, if anything, having a better season than his stellar 2011 MVP season. His ERA, FIP and xFIP are all down from 2011 (2.40/2.99/3.12 in 2011, 2.15/2.37/3.11 in 2012). His K rate is slightly higher (26.2% in 2012, 25.8% in 2011) and BB rate is lower (5.2% in 2012, 5.9% in 2011). His batting average against is lower (.171 in 2012, 1.91 in 2011) and his WHIP is lower 0.81 vs. 0.92). The only thing negative to say about Verlander is that his velocity is down a tick from 2011. Justin Verlander is sick. Just sick.

Drew Smyly (versus Jon Lester) flew through the Tigers’ minor league system after being drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft. Smyly relies on a 91 MPH four-seamer, an 86 MPH cutter, and 84 MPH changeup, throwing in a two-seamer, a sinker, and a slider. The calling card for Drew Smyly has been command of his pitches – the ball goes where he wants it to go. Smyly has a very nice K rate of 8.51 and a could-be-better walk rate of 2.77. His FIP of 4.02 is a touch higher than his ERA (3.14) but he’s still a rookie who is learning.

Max Scherzer (opposing Josh Beckett in the finale) was tagged to have a breakout season, but is it coming to pass? What I’m seeing is bad luck. His ERA is an ugly 5.67 but his FIP is an acceptable 3.95 and his SIERA is an excellent 2.78. He’s given up 10 home runs so far in 2012 but his xFIP of 3.11 indicates that he should have given up fewer homers. And to top it all off, Scherzer’s BABIP is an outstandingly unlucky .394. His K rate is a stellar 12.00 per nine innings but his walk rate of 3.17 could be better. Scherzer has always had the stuff to be a great pitcher. Now it’s time to make it happen.

EXPECTED LINEUP

1. Quintin Berry, CF
2. Andy Dirks, LF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B
4. Prince Fielder, 1B
5. Delmon Young, DH
6. Brennan Boesch, RF
7. Jhonny Peralta, SS
8. Alex Avila, C
9. Ryan Raburn, 2B

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT

Prince Fielder is heating up. In the last two weeks Fielder is hitting .442/.475/.692 with a .485 wOBA and a 213 wRC+. Also hitting well in the last two weeks (and honestly, when does he not) is Miguel Cabrera (.358/.433/.547, .421 wOBA, 169 wRC+). Also, watch out for Quintin Berry. Making his debut for the injured Austin Jackson, Berry is hitting .381/.458/.476, .444 wOBA and 185 wRC+, with 3 stolen bases. He is striking out in 24% of his at bats but is walking 12% of the time. Not bad for his first five games in the majors. However, Alex Avila (.231/.333/.359, .309 wOBA, 92 wRC+) and Jhonny Peralta (.200/.347/.300, .304 wOBA, 89 wRC+) aren’t hitting well in the past two weeks.

In the bullpen, Joaquin Benoit has been getting the job done (2.70 ERA/1.64 FIP/2.55 xFIP) despite a tremendously unlucky .404 BABIP. Also pitching well are Duane Below (2.45 ERA/2.26 FIP/3.14 xFIP), Octavio Dotel (2.87 ERA/1.78 FIP/2.11 xFIP) and Bryan Villareal (0.00 ERA/1.76 FIP/2.91 xFIP). However, Phil Coke (4.50 ERA/2.84 FIP/3.74 xFIP, but an unlucky .350 BABIP) and closer Jose Valverde (4.66 ERA/4.59 FIP/4.85 xFIP) aren’t pitching to their capabilities.

INJURIES

LHP Sergio Escalona is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. LHP Fernando Abad (right intercostal strain), CF Austin Jackson (abdominal strain) and RHP Kyle Weiland (right shoulder infection) are on the 15-day DL.

AND WHAT ABOUT THE RED SOX?

In the last two weeks, Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.303/.361/.667, .434 wOBA, 175 wRC+) is performing his annual “maybe he really is a good hitter” routine, while Scott Podsednik (.455/.455/.727, .533 wOBA, 243 wRC+) has gotten off to a great start in five games. Also, Kevin Youkilis (.375/.474/.563 .451 wOBA, 186 wRC+) has hit well upon his return from the disabled list. However, Adrian Gonzalez (.204/.245/.388, .273 wOBA, 64 wRC+) and Dustin Pedroia (.226/.263/.245, .230 wOBA, 34 wRC+) had bad fortnights and need to step it up.

As for the hurlers, Josh Beckett went 2-0 in three starts, with a line of 1.25 ERA/1.79 FIP/2.83 xFIP, but Jon Lester (5.68 ERA, 5.15 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, despite two wins) and Daniel Bard (6.10 ERA/8.02 FIP/6.46 xFIP) didn’t pitch well in the last two weeks. In the pen Alfredo Aceves (2.25 ERA/4.12 FIP/3.37 xFIP, despite the tough blown save on Sunday) and Franklin Morales (2.70 ERA/ a worrying 5.99 FIP/3.36 xFIP) have pitched well, while Vicente Padilla (5.40 ERA/2.39 FIP/4.08 xFIP with a .400 BABIP) has been a bit unlucky.

SUMMARY

The Tigers are where they are in the standings because their pitching hasn’t been as stellar as in years past, but the tools are there for the Tigers to regain their traditional position at or near the top of the American League Central. If the Cleveland Indians cool off (which they should, right?), the Tigers will battle the also surprising White Sox for the Central crown.

Welcome to Opening Day! The Advanced Scout will be a regular feature on Fire Brand of the American League that will present a preview of the upcoming series for the Red Sox. It will focus on the upcoming opponent. We’ll tell you who is expected to be on the mound, who’s hot and who’s not, expected lineups, key injuries, and give you other information to provide a better picture of the upcoming opponents of the Boston Red Sox.

First up is the powerhouse of the American League Central Division – the Detroit Tigers. A fashionable choice to win the American League this year, the Tigers added more power to their lineup with the signing of Prince Fielder at first base. Fielder will anchor a very strong hitting lineup, pairing with now-third baseman Miguel Cabrera to form a formidable duo in the middle of the lineup.

STARTING PITCHERS – Justin Verlander, Doug Fister and Max Scherzer

Taking the mound on Opening Day is the reigning AL Cy Young and MVP Justin Verlander (facing Jon Lester). Verlander’s 2011 season was stunning, as were the numbers he compiled: 7.0 fWAR, 170 ERA+, 250/57 K/BB, 0.920 WHIP, 3.12 xFIP and a 40.2% GB rate. Perhaps Verlander’s .236 BABIP for 2011 is unsustainable but with raw numbers like that, you’re going to get a low BABIP. Oh, and he goes deep in games and can hit triple-digit velocity in the 9th inning. Good luck, Sox.

Doug Fister will start the second game on Saturday (against Josh Beckett, maybe). You’ve got to hand it to Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski for trading for Fister last year. Fister became a fantastic starter for the Tigers, going 8-1 down the stretch. In 11 appearances with the Tigers, Fister had a 2.4 fWAR, a 2.75 xFIP and a 50.2% GB rate. Regression is to be expected in 2012, but if Fister can be anywhere near the pitcher he was in 2011, look for the Tigers to make a lot of noise this year.

Pitching on Sunday for Detroit is the heterochromatic Max Scherzer (versus Clay Buchholz). Max’s “stuff” has always been better than his numbers. However, Scherzer’s numbers show he might have been slightly unlucky in 2011. He had a 4.43 ERA versus a 3.70 xFIP, and has a slightly above average .314 BABIP. If Scherzer can equal or surpass his 2011 mark of 174/56 K/BB, his stats could bring him into the fringe of the top pitchers in the American League.

EXPECTED LINEUP

Note: This lineup has been confirmed as the Tigers’ Opening Day lineup.

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Brennan Boesch, RF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B
4. Prince Fielder, 1B
5. Delmon Young, LF
6. Ryan Raburn, DH
7. Jhonny Peralta, SS
8. Alex Avila, C
9. Ramon Santiago, 2B

Ryan Raburn should get the lion’s share of starts at second base this year, and lefty Andy Dirks will see much playing time at DH and left field when facing right-handed pitchers.

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT

Sure, it’s only spring training stats, but Dirks (.429/.485/.513), Cabrera (.413/.491/.652) and Delmon Young (.381/.394/.762(?!)) had hot springs, while Brandon Inge (.180/.226/.300), Alex Avila (.246/.323/.316) and Ramon Santiago (.261/.321/.395) started cold.

INJURIES

Old friend C Victor Martinez (torn ACL) is out for the season. RHP Al Alburquerque is due back midseason after right elbow surgery. 3B/DH Brandon Inge (sore left groin) and RHP Luis Marte (strained left hamstring) will start the season on the 15-day DL.

SUMMARY

The Tigers will hit the yarn out of the ball in 2012. If Fister doesn’t regress too much and Scherzer gets the luck that eluded him in 2012, the Tigers will pitch well. If they could defend, they might be the favorites for the American League title. However, they should easily win the AL Central. I’m penning Verlander for a win on Opening Day, with the series depending on the pitching of Fister, Scherzer, and Beckett on Saturday. With luck, the Red Sox could take two of three. Without it, well…we’ve been there before.

* He has a pretty great sense of humor.  Julian Levine of Giants Nirvana and I made a couple of jokes at his expense on Twitter a few weeks back, and he responded with a light hearted, friendly direct message thanking us for the “shout out.”  Maybe it’s just me, but I thought that was really cool of him.  Also, it allowed me to coin the term “OPSBI’d.”

The reason I’m semi-defending him is not because I want to praise him for being a smart guy or a good writer.  I’m not going to pass judgment on him on either case.  Instead, I find it to be a little cowardly to openly criticize someone else’s work without providing an alternative analysis explaining my position.  To remedy this, I’m going to analyze his list of top 20 free agents, and provide my own analysis.  Please keep in mind that I’m not only far more conservative than the free-wheeling Bowden, but also use a far different methodology.  While I do use fWAR to guide me in helping me determine my valuations, I know and understand it’s inherent limitations.  To help limit fWAR‘s biases, I consulted rWAR, WARP, and its components as a check and balance.

1. Albert Pujols, 1B

3 Year fWAR Trend – 9.0, 7.5, 5.1

Bowden’s Projection – 9/$273M

Chip’s Projection – 8/$210M

Projected Value – $191M

The Pujols camp is reportedly looking for A-Rod (10/$275M) money, but I can’t envision a single scenario where he receives anything near that offer.  The Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies currently have power hitting first basmen locked up indefinitely; the Mets and Dodgers are stuck in financial hell; and the Angels and Giants don’t seem interested in raising their payroll considerably.  That leaves the Cubs and Cardinals as his most likely destinations.  Given the relatively narrow market for Pujols’s services; his “down” 2011 season; and A-Rod’s post signing performance, we won’t likely see a new record set this time around.  It’s too risky.  That said, Pujols is still the greatest hitter in the game.  He should receive a deal that makes him only the second $200M contract player in history.  It’s probably an overpay by $20M overall, but I think the Cardinals pay the premium to keep him in a Cards uniform.

2. Prince Fielder, 1B

3 Year WAR Trend – 6.4, 3.5, 5.5

Bowden’s Projection – 8/$192M

Chip’s Projection – 8/$185M

Projected Value - $171M

Fielder’s appeal, aside from his unbelievable abilities at the plate, is his age.  At only 27 years old, he’s four years younger than Pujols, and has around 3-4 prime seasons ahead of him.  This alone, makes him a incredibly hot commodity.  Considering his lower price tag, we could see a few teams like the Angels, Orioles, Nationals, and Giants sumbit bids.  Save for the Nationals, who were big time players last winter, I don’t see any of the other three teams being serious bidders.  Ultimately, I see him going to the Cubs as the consolation prize for not landing Pujols.  Concerns about long-term durability, weight, and performance projections keep him from breaking $190M.  8/$185M seems like a slight overpay, as I see him valuing at closer to $170M over the next eight seasons.

3. Jose Reyes, SS

3 Year WAR Trend – 6.4 (2008), 2.9, 6.2

Bowden’s Projection – 6/$108M

Chip’s Projection – 5/$90M

Projected Value – $110M

I’m fully prepared to be wrong on this projection, but I’m going with it anyway.  Yes, I realize he’s the best shortstop and leadoff hitter on the market this year.  Given his age and skill set (similar to Carl Crawford‘s), he’s practically guaranteed a six year deal at this point.  Still, I think teams should shy away from going beyond five years if at all possible.  As talented as Reyes is, his injury issues over the past three seasons are a major concern.  He’s played in only 295 of 486 possible games during that time, and has suffered from nagging hamstring issues that could affect his ability to remain at SS over the long haul.  If he remains healthy and remains at SS, he could outperform his next contract.

4. Mark Buehrle, SP

3 Year WAR Trend – 3.4, 3.7, 3.4

Bowden’s Projection – 4/$64M

Chip’s Projection – 3/$40M

Projected Value – $35M

Bowden’s justification for his contract projection if A.J. Burnett, John Lackey, and Jason Schmidt received an AAV of $16M per season, so should Buehrle.  Given how terrible each pitcher had performed after signing their comparable deals, doesn’t this seem a bit shortsighted?  While Buehrle is nothing if not consistent, he’s about to enter his age-33 season with a “meh” skill set.  He has great control and gets hitters to swing at pitcher’s pitches, but he lacks an out pitch and gives up a ton of hits.  To paraphrase Keith Law, Buehrle would get murdered if he pitched in front of a bad defense.  That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement.  He should be a great deal for the right price, but unfortunately that price is nearly half of what Bowden’s suggesting.

5. C.J. Wilson, SP

3 Year WAR Trend – 2.0, 4.6, 5.9

Bowden’s Projection – 5/$75M

Chip’s Projection – 5/$85M

Projected Value – $73M

Bowden’s projection is almost dead on with my estimation of Wilson’s value for the next five seasons.  Still, given the weakness of the starting pitching free agent market this year, I see Wilson bringing home a contract similar to the ones Burnett and Lackey signed in recent years.  Clearly, there are some concerns with injury history, projectability, and control issues among the most commonly mentioned, but overall he seems like a solid investment in the right situation.  He’s proven he can pitch effectively in a hitter friendly environment, and outperformed both Lackey and Burnett in the two seasons leading up to free agency.  The Yankees and Rangers seem to be likely destinations, but I can also see the Nationals and Royals as dark horse candidates.  With C.C. Sabathia off of the market, Wilson’s value should soar.

6. Carlos Beltran, RF

3 Year WAR Trend – 7.6 (2008), 3.0 (2009), 4.7

Bowden’s Projection – 3/$45M

Chip’s Projection – 3/$42M

Projected Value – $56M

At 34, Beltran is still a complete ballplayer who’s capable of playing at a very high level.  Like his former teammate, Jose Reyes, his primary blemish is his recent injury history.  Knee injuries have plagued him recently having missed significant portions of the 2009 and 2010 seasons as a result.  As a result, teams will likely remain cautious about signing the perennial All-Star.  Regardless, I expect him to be a 3.5-4.5 win player over the next few seasons, which would put him in excellent position to outperform his contract.  Ideally, given his injury history, I’d love to see Beltran sign a two year deal.  I don’t think that’s going happen.

7. Aramis Ramirez, 3B

3 Year WAR Trend – 2.2, 0.4, 3.6

Bowden’s Projection – 3/$42M

Chip’s Projection – 3/$42M

Projected Value – $34M

Ramirez is no longer the player he was from 2004 to 2009 when he was posting wOBAs in the .380s and .390s like it was his job, but he’s still carries a tremendous amount of offensive value.  Still, with the market for third basemen being as brutal as it is, he should make out like a bandit this winter.  That’s true even when you’re 33 and defensively challenged.  When your primary competition is Wilson Betemit, Mark DeRosa, and Miguel Tejada; life is good.

8. Jonathan Papelbon, RP

3 Year WAR Trend – 2.0, 1.2, 3.0

Bowden’s Projection – 3/$45M

Chip’s Projection – 4/$56M 

Projected Value – $40M

The problem with closers is that they very rarely provide enough on-field performance value to cover the cost of their contract.  This is true even with elite closers like Papelbon.  Per Fangraphs, the average cost of a win on the free agent market is expected to be worth approximately $4.75M (subject to change) this year.  Even with a 5% inflation rate over each of the next three seasons, Papelbon would need to average 3.0 fWAR through 2015 in order to justify his salary.  While Papelbon has registered three 3 fWAR seasons (including a 3.2 fWAR in 2006) during his career, it’s unreasonable to expect him to maintain that performance indefinitely.  Still, as the premier closer on the market, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get paid.

UPDATE:  With Madson signing a four year $44M contract to remain in Philadelphia, Papelbon’s all but guaranteed a four year deal himself.  Unless he drops his demands, he’s likely priced himself out of Boston.

9. Jimmy Rollins, SS

3 Year WAR Trend – 3.0, 2.5, 3.8

Bowden’s Projection – 3/$39M

Chip’s Projection – 3/$36M

Projected Value – $35M

While Rollins is still a good player, he appears to have entered the decline phase of his career.  Luckily for Rollins, there are a number of teams in the market for a veteran shortstop this winter with the Mets, Giants, Brewers, Braves, and (obviously) Phillies among the most eager.  If Rollins has a smart agent, he’ll shop offers until after Reyes signs in hopes of leveraging his own client.  Rollins could get four guaranteed years (anything is possible when Brian Sabean’s in the mix), but it’s unlikely.  If he does get a fourth year, it will most likely be as a club option.

10. David Ortiz, DH

3 Year WAR Trend – 0.3, 2.6, 4.2

Bowden’s Projection – 2/$25M

Chip’s Projection – 2/$24M

Projected Value – $25M

Do you remember the Derek Jeter saga from last year?  If any contract negotiation has a chance of reprising that kind of drama this winter, it’s going to be the one between Ortiz and Red Sox management.  While 2/$24M seems like a perfectly reasonable deal, I get the impression the Red Sox are going to allow Ortiz to test the market.  As I’ve mentioned a few times before, the market for designated hitters has been very soft over the past several winters.  Given Ortiz’s likely contract demands and his relatively limited market, he could easily end up in Vladmir Guererro territory if he’s not careful.  Ultimately, I think he re-signs with the Red Sox for two years, but not before being humbled by the verital pu pu platter of one year contracts being offered by the other American League teams.

11. Hiroki Kuroda, SP

3 Year WAR Trend – 2.1, 4.1, 2.4

Bowden’s Projection – 1/$12M

Chip’s Projection – 1/$12M

Projected Value – $11M

We are in complete agreement on Kuroda’s projected contract.  Although I’d love him to travel across the country to sign a one year deal in Boston, he’ll likely return to either the Dodgers or Japan.  He’s the quintessential middle of the rotation pitcher every contender needs.

12. Ryan Madson, RP

3 Year WAR Trend – 1.3, 1.3, 1.7

Bowden’s Projection – 4/$40M

Chip’s Projection – 3/$25M

Projected Value – $23M

I’ll be honest.  I’m having a lot of trouble gauging the market for Madson.  I think he’ll have plenty of suitors, which could drive the price up; but I don’t see teams willing to give a relatively inexperienced closer four years at $10M per season.  Then again, that could change if some team grossly overpays for Papelbon and/or Heath Bell.  Still, as a pitcher that’s actually three months older than Papelbon, I’m not thrilled about the idea of giving Madson a longer-term commitment; even if it’s for less money.  I can see his contract reaching as high as 3/$30M.

UPDATE:  Last night, the Phillies came to terms with Madson on a four year $44M contract.  Clearly, I valued Madson incorrectly.  Never underestimate the Amaro Principle.  Anytime Amaro can overpay for a veteran talent (see Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez), he’ll do it.

13. Heath Bell, RP

3 Year WAR Trend – 2.0, 2.4, 0.5

Bowden’s Projection – 3/$30M

Chip’s Projection – 3/$34.5M

Projected Value – $24M

Bell is another tough case.  How we project his contract potential, depends on how much stock you take in his 2011 performance being a fluke.  When dealing with a 34 year old relief pitcher, teams should exercise caution when evaluating him.  Even still, his primary statistics (saves, ERA) are impressive enough that a few teams will ignore the potential warning signs.  He’ll get paid regardless.

UPDATE:  I originally had Bell down for 3/$30M.  After Madson agreed to a contract with an $11M average annual salary, I’m expecting his demands to go up slightly.

14. Michael Cuddyer, 1B/RF/DH

3 Year WAR Trend – 2.8, 0.8, 3.1

Bowden’s Projection – 3/$30M

Chip’s Projection – 3/$35M

Projected Value – $24M

Maybe it’s my bitterness, or my lack of faith in man kind, but I’m going to project the over on Cuddyer’s contract.  If there’s one player this winter certain to experience the “Lyle Overpay” (h/t to David Schubert of Sabeanmetrics), it’s Cuddyer.  Because of his “versatility” (and I use that term as loosely as possible), he’ll likely be overvalued by a number of teams looking to establish maximum roster flexibility.  While it’s true he’s played 1B, 2B, 3B, and RF in recent years (plus LF and CF in the past), it doesn’t mean he’s proficient at any of those positions.  In a perfect world, he would be barred from ever wearing a glove, and relegated to being a DH.  Unfortunately, his bat isn’t strong enough to give 500-600 PAs at that slot.  About to enter his age-33 season, Cuddyer is a man on the decline that probably  should be receiving a 2/$16M deal max.  Because of his perceived intangible and leadership qualities, he’ll receive offers far exceeding that number.

15. Edwin Jackson, SP

3 Year WAR Trend – 3.6, 3.8, 3.8

Bowden’s Projection – 3/$30M

Chip’s Projection – 3/$36M

Projected Value – $40M

When Jackson was progressing through the Dodger farm system, many considered him to be an ace-in-waiting.  While those lofty projections have never come true, he’s developed into a solid middle of the rotation pitcher with excellent stuff.  At only 28 years old, he’s in the middle of his prime, so it’s possible a GM or two might be willing to overbid hoping Jackson reaches his maximum potential.  His mid-90s fastball and devestating slider make it possible, but his spotty control makes the idea seem far fetched.  He’s been pretty consistent over the past three years especially, so that warrants him a three year deal at minimum.  Given his potential and the weak starting pitching market, a four or five yeal is certainly possible; albeit ill-advised.

16. Roy Oswalt, SP

3 Year WAR Trend – 3.0, 4.7, 2.5

Bowden’s Projection – 1/$10M

Chip’s Projection – 2/$24M

Projected Value – $24M

Had there not been questions about his health, Oswalt would have ranked higher than Buehrle on this list.  He’s a solid 3.5-4-win pitcher that has a ton of high pressure experience, and can soak up innings in the middle of the rotation.  The Phillies will be in play to bring him back to Philadelphia, but the Yankees, Red Sox, and (maybe) Cubs will certainly take a look at signing the veteran righty.  He’s certainly a risk, but provided the medicals come back acceptable; he’s worth it.

17. Carlos Pena, 1B

3 Year WAR Trend – 3.0, 1.1 , 2.6

Bowden’s Projection – 2/$17M

Chip’s Projection – 1/$9M

Projected Value – $7.5M

While his 2011 numbers were an improvement over 2010′s, he’s entering the free agent market as the third best first baseman.  In most years that might not be a big deal, but this year he’s up against Pujols and Fielder.  As such, there’s a chance he’ll get lost in the shuffle.  That said, he could become a hot commodity for teams that lose out on the two biggest prizes.  While that could net him a two year deal, his “underwhelming” (by some standards, not mine) production will likely net him a one year pact.

18. Francisco Rodriguez, RP

3 Year WAR Trend – 0.3, 1.4, 1.4

Bowden’s Projection – 2/$17M

Chip’s Projection – 1/$8M

Projected Value – $5M

After spending two-and-a-half disappointing seasons in New York, and being forced to play second fiddle to John Axelrod upon being traded to the Brewers; K-Rod will be looking for an ideal closer role that will allow him to rebuild his value.  He’ll probably start out the winter looking for a two-year contract.  Given his recent stretch of public issues, that seems pretty unlikely.  As a result, I think a one year deal would be most advantageous for the righty.  If he can continue the dominant success he had in Milwaukee in 2012, he could parlay it into a larger deal the following winter.

19. Francisco Cordero, RP

3 Year WAR Trend – 0.3, 1.4, 1.4

Bowden’s Projection – 1/$8.5M

Chip’s Projection – 1/$7M

Projected Value – $2.7M

Cordero’s not as good as his ERA and save totals suggest.  Just four seasons after racking up a 33% strikeout rate with Milwaukee, his rate plummetted to 15.3% this season.  At 36 years old, teams pursuing him should exercise considerable caution.  He still has a serviceable arm, but he shouldn’t be considered your bullpen’s best arm.  Even though, I’m projecting his value at $1.3M for 2012, I still see him getting a pretty sizeable one year deal.  Despite everything we’ve learned about the game, too many GMs still overvalue saves.

20. Joe Nathan, RP

3 Year WAR Trend – 2.1, 1.9, 0.0

Bowden’s Projection – 1/$7.5M

Chip’s Projection – 1/$6M

Projected Value – $5.5M

His 4.84 ERA won’t look pleasing to the average baseball fan, but his 3.96 xFIP indicates he was extremely unlucky with fly balls leaving the yard.  His strikeout rate is lower than it had been pre-surgery, but it’s still acceptable given it’s relation to his walk rate.  At 37, I’m not sure Nathan will ever return to being the championship caliber closer he once was, but he’s a classic low risk/high reward guys that could be called upon to pitch high leverage innings out of the bullpen.  There is reason for optimism.  He posted a 22/5 K/BB ratio in 23 innings during the second half of the season; meaning he could be a comeback candidate next season.

GAME NOTES

It’s not the AL vs. the NL in this Home Run Derby.  It’s the AL East vs. the NL. For the first time, the NL and AL squads were chosen by captains, David Ortiz chose the AL side and Prince Fielder the NL.  Ortiz stayed within the AL East for his team picking teammate Adrian Gonzalez, Yankee Robinson Cano and Blue Jay Jose Bautista.  Fielder chose teammate Rickie Weeks, Cardinal Matt Holliday and Dodger Matt Kemp for the NL team.  The format of the contest will remain the same though as all 8 players will compete in the first round, the top 4 will advance to the second round, and then the top 2 to the finals.

PLAYERS OF THE DAY

The first home run derby was held in 1985 at The Metrodome.  It featured 5 players from the NL and five from the AL.  The Red Sox were well represented as 4 of the 10 players who participated played for the Red Sox at some point in their careers: Jim Rice, Carlton Fisk, Tom Brunansky and Jack Clark.  Rice obviously spent his entire career with the Red Sox from 1974-1989.  Fisk was with the Red Sox from 1969-1980 before changing his Sox to white from 1981-1993.  Brunansky was a Twin in 1985 but came to Boston in 1990-92 and again in 1994.  Clark was a Cardinal in 1985 but played for the Red Sox in his final two seasons from 1991-1992.  The first derby was won by Dave Parker of the Reds who hit a total of 6 HRs.

INJURY REPORT

Boston: Clay Buchholz, lower back strain (Placed on the 15-day DL on June 19, retroactive to June 17); Carl Crawford, strained left hamstring (Placed on the 15-day DL June 18); Jed Lowrie, right shoulder injury (Placed on the 15-day DL on June 17); Bobby Jenks, left back tightness (Placed on the 15-day on DL June 8); Rich Hill, left elbow sprain (Placed on the 15-day DL on June 3, retroactive to June 2) Franklin Morales, left forearm strain (Placed on the 15-day DL on May 29, retroactive to May 26); Daisuke Matsuzaka, sprained elbow (Placed on the 15-day DL on May 17, transferred to the 60-day DL on June 3); Junichi Tazawa, right elbow surgery (placed on the 60-day DL on March 26)

Pittsburgh: Evan Meek, right shoulder tendinitis (Placed on the 15-day DL on June 10, retroactive to June 8); Chris Snyder, back surgery (Placed on the 15-day DL on June 9, transferred to the 60-day DL on June 10); Ryan Doumit, left ankle sprain (Placed on the 15-day DL on May 30); Steve Pearce, right calf strain (Placed on the 15-day DL on May 30, retroactive to May 29);  Joe Beimel, left elbow inflammation (Placed on the 15-day DL on May 28); Pedro Alvarez, right quad strain (Placed on the 15-day DL on May 21, retroactive to May 20); Mike Crotta, right elbow posterior inflammation (Placed on the 15-day DL on May 11); Ross Ohlendorf, right shoulder posterior strain (Placed on the 15-day DL on April 9, transferred to the 60-day DL on May 30); Kevin Hart, right shoulder surgery (Placed on the 60-day DL on March 18)

GAME NOTES

A three-game losing streak against traditional National League bottom-dwellers has caused some unrest in Red Sox Nation. The offense has stalled a bit, the pitching hasn’t been sharp, and the defense has been shaky. However, tonight’s story is Tim Wakefield, who will make what most likely will be his final start in Pittsburgh, where he started his Major League career. Wakefield is closing in on 200 wins; he earned #197 in his last start against the Brewers, lasting eight innings and giving up three runs on three hits (two homers) and one walk with six strikeouts. Lyle Overbay had some success against Wakes during his days as a Blue Jay, going 9-27 with one home run and five RBI.

Jeff Karstens takes the mound for the Buccos tonight. In his last start, Karstens went seven innings and allowed two runs (one earned) on five hits and one walk against five strikeouts, but took a no decision in an extra-inning loss against the Indians. Karstens had a career-high 15.2 scoreless inning streak broken in that start against Cleveland. Adrian Gonzalez is 3-5 with one RBI in his career against Karstens.

Lineups

Red Sox

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
4. Kevin Youkilis, 3B
5. J.D. Drew, RF
6. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
7. Josh Reddick, LF
8. Marco Scutaro, SS
9. Tim Wakefield, P

Pittsburgh

1. Jose Tabata, LF
2. Chase d’Arnaud, 3B
3. Garrett Jones, RF
4. Andrew McCutchen, CF
5. Neil Walker, 2B
6. Lyle Overbay, 1B
7. Ronny Cedeno, SS
8. Mike McKenry, C
9. Jeff Karstens, P

Fun Facts

- The Red Sox have a total record of 145-112 (.564) in Interleague play, good for 4th best in the Majors, and have gone 100-49 (.649) in Interleague play since 2003, best in the Majors.

- Daniel Bard is tied for the AL lead in holds with 14, and has not allowed a run in 10.2 innings (over nine appearances).

- On June 25, 1937, Red Sox right fielder Ben Chapman made one-third of the putouts in a victory against the St. Louis Browns. Seven of his nine putouts were made consecutively.

- And for today’s Totally Untrue Fun Fact: Before adopting “We Are Family” as the team song, the 1979 Pirates tried “Beat on the Brat” by the Ramones. As a result, baseball bat-related violence rose around Three Rivers Stadium, which caused the team to find a more peaceful song.