AL Central Sleepers

In a division packed about as tightly as a can be, the emergence or decline of a single player can mean the difference between a playoff berth and an early end to the season.

With the AL Central race as wide open as any division in the MLB, each team will be counting on the contributions of every player on the roster – and praying for the breakout of their sleeper prospects. And, when it comes to those, there is certainly no shortage of potential breakout players.

Cleveland Indians

SP Justin Masterson: Though we could have gone with OF Matt LaPorta here, it just wouldn’t have been as fun as picking the home-grown talent.

Everyone in the Boston metro-area familiar with Masterson – or “Monsterson,” as some like to call him – and his impeccable set of offerings. The 6-6, 250 lb behemoth was the centerpiece that brought Victor Martinez over the Sox, paired with stud reliever Nick Hagadone.

A hefty price tag befitting of the elite catcher, Masterson now turns his sights toward the AL Central as the Indians’ number three starter…

Evan Brunell’s 2010 MLB Predictions: Does Boston win it?

As the advent of spring training games are upon us, I thought I’d kick off everyone’s favorite little exercise by providing my own personal predictions as to how I think the season will shake out. Now, before I do so, a word of caution: predictions can change daily based on events. Heck, my predictions change multiple times a week. But I’ve gotta make predictions at some point, right? Point being, I might disagree with my own predictions a week from now. Most of the time, these kind of predictions are an exercise in fallacy, but it’s not going to stop me from trying.

I don’t know why I made things harder on myself, but I set out to present an exact record. This means I had to go into a spreadsheet and make sure all the wins and losses totaled the correct amount of games while also balancing out to a .500 record. Took me a while, but dadgum it, I did it. One thing I did not control for was the unbalanced schedule (in a total record sense), but I already strained my tenuous math skills, so I wasn’t about to complicate it further.

Click “read more” or the headline to find my predictions.

Quick Musings on the Latest Sox Rumors

Billy Wagner

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Billy Wagner is considering accepting an arbitration deal from the BoSox because he “loved his experience with the Red Sox enough that’s it’s now a possibility.” That is an MLB Trade Rumors quote, not Wagner directly from Wagner’s mouth. However, it’s hard not to be skeptical of his sudden change of heart, as no one could love a city enough from four short weeks to make a complete 180 in their opinion of the team and their place within it…

Varitek’s Player Option Due at Midnight

***UPDATE: Varitek has officially picked up his $3 million player option.

As we continue to follow the Jason Varitek story, his contract is undergoing more flip-flopping than a Brett Favre retirement or Florida in the 2000 presidential election. Is he or isn’t he? We’ll find out before the end of the day, though the verdict is still out as to whether it would be better for him to re-sign…

Mauer Extension Talks Begin

While all of Boston awaits the man of our dreams… er, catcher of our dreams leaving Minnesota for our nightly NESN living room broadcast, agent Ron Shapiro is beginning to discuss a contract extension for his all-world catcher…

Reaching into the MailBag

This one courtesy of James, aka “jgr jgr”. James submitted a few puzzling questions, though this one made me think the most:

“Is there some hitter or pitcher out there under the radar that you think will be wearing a new Boston uniform in 2010?”

Well, going off this question, we’ll avoid talking about the likely suspects, including Bay, Holliday, Harden, or Scutaro who have all received a great deal of coverage not only on this site, but on Sox discussion boards ‘Nation’ wide (Yes, that was a pun. No, I won’t apologize.)

As for truly under the radar names, we must look really deep into the free agent roster, probably to the point of back-end bullpen types or bench hitters. While these moves may not be exciting to the average layman, these are the transactions that make championships. Depth and injury/slump insurance is perhaps one of the most underrated aspects of building a championship team. John Henry could grab any fan off the streets to build a team that could win 100 games if everything were guaranteed to go as planned. However, the true talent and meddle of a front office is tested by their contingency planning.

When a team has the type of financial resources the Sox have, it’s difficult to pick a truly “under the radar” name that will make an impact, as the players the team is likely to sign are usually the top free agents, too big to fly below the hard deck.

But there is still value to be that the rest of the baseball world is not discussing. Here’s a few that I think the Sox may settle on before the off-season ends:

Value at Starting Pitcher

Assuming that the Cubs re-sign Rich Harden, while Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard find other suitors, I would love to see the Sox sign Carl Pavano. Though his 5.10 ERA left much to be desired, Pavano actually turned in quite a season in 2009, with a 4.00 FIP ERA to go along with a 3.77 K:BB rate. While his 6.64 K/9 was merely average, a 1.76 BB/9 rate is more than adequate.

If you have burning questions about Red Sox Baseball, please submit your questions to Mike_Silver_FireBrandAL@yahoo.com. We’d love to hear what’s got you thinking!

So Much So Soon: Analyzing the Sox’ Looong Weekend

Well, that was quick.

After a slow couple weeks while we waited for the crowning of the new World Series Champion (who, sadly, were the New York Yankees), the MLB hot stove exploded in a flurry of moves including the trades of Jeremy Hermida and J.J. Hardy, the rejection of Alex Gonzalez’s, Jermaine Dye’s, and Jason Varitek’s options, the outrighting of Nick Green and Joey Gathright, the retention of Victor Martinez, and the re-signing of Tim Wakefield and Bobby Abreu.

I’m out of breath.

But man, what a week.

Jeremy Hermida

Though Hermida was just the first pin to drop, coming over to Boston in exchange for Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez, he is quite the exciting piece. Though he vastly underperformed his prospect billing during his seasons with the Marlins, Hermida used to be quite the prospect, ranking as Florida’s top farmhand from 2004-2006 and the MLB’s 4^th best in 2006.

But he has fallen quite far since then, posting a cumulative .265/.344/.425 line in 1708 career at-bats. Though Hermida is a big-bodied corner outfielder, standing 6-3, 222 lbs, his power has yet to come around at the big league level, as he posted a career high of just 18 homers back in 2007.

Of greater concern, however, has been the dissipation of his walk rate since arriving in the Majors. His once begone elite batting eye was the primary reason for his soaring stock in the minor leagues – of particular interest was his prodigious showing at AA Carolina in 2005, where he drew 111 BBs against just 89 strikeouts in 504 plate appearances on his way to a .293/.457/.518 line.

Twins Acquire J.J. Hardy

The Minnesota Twins traded for Milwaukee Brewers shortstop J.J. Hardy today, in exchange for centerfielder Carlos Gomez. Prior to 2009, Hardy had been among the better offensive shortstops in the majors, though his numbers slumped significantly in 2009.

Hardy had been listed among the Red Sox’ shortstop trade targets this offseason. The move eliminates a valuable option for the team, as they must now contemplate between free agent acquisitions, a trade (possibly for Stephen Drew), or picking up Alex Gonzalez’s option.

Hardy batted .283/.343/.478 in 2008 with 24 home runs in 2008, before batting just .229/.302/.357 in 2009.

Injuries Among the Contenders

There is nothing that can derail a team quicker than a slew of injuries in October. The Sox have seen their fair share of injuries lately, though the M.A.S.H. unit has had some success returning the boys to action.

But they are not the only team in the hunt, as the Yankees, Twins, Angels, and Tigers all have their own bumps, bruises, and breaks to deal with. And no, we are not including Texas anymore, as their playoff odds have now dropped below half of one percent. The only race left is between Detroit and Minnesota for the AL Central.

Here’s a rundown of the significant injuries on each team:

Sizing Up the Competition

With just under three weeks left in the regular season, the field is almost done filling out, with just five teams holding real hopes of reaching the post season: Boston, New York, Detroit, Minnesota, and Los Angeles.

Anaheim is up 6 in the West, Detroit is up 4 on Minnesota in the Central, the Red Sox are up 6 ½ in the Wild Card and the Yanks are about to clinch the East, up 6.5 games.

So, how do these teams stack up?

Remy Returns, Clay Stumbles, Sox Win – All is Forgiven

The Sox take the first game of the series against the White Sox, 12-8, on the strength of a 6 run third inning. Clay Buchholz struggled with his command, being chased in the fifth inning.

And Firebrand would like to welcome Jerry Remy back to the booth. It’s a little belated, but hey, someone had to do it…

Sox whiff out on Gaudin, Pavano

I’ve got an article up at The Hardball Times, where I take the Sox to task for not acquiring either Chad Gaudin or Carl Pavano, both of who have been moved in the last 24 hours.