Photo: Samara Pearlstein

After losing both of their final home games, the tied-for-last Boston Red Sox (69-87, 21 games back in the AL East) travel to Camden Yards for their penultimate series of the year against the Baltimore Orioles (89-67, 1 game back in the AL East, leading the AL Wild Card by 2 games). The Orioles won their last game, while the Red Sox have lost two in a row.

STARTING PITCHERS: Chris Tillman, Steve Johnson and TBA

Chris Tillman (versus Aaron Cook in the opener) is one of the reasons that the Orioles are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot this season. Owner of a 3.08 ERA/4.10 FIP/4.30 xFIP pitching triple slash line, Tillman improved his ERA by an astounding 2.5 runs per 9 and his xFIP by .5 runs per 9, but interestingly his FIP went up slightly (from 3.99). If you were paying attention, you may have seen this coming. Tillman’s 2011 BABIP was an extremely unlucky .346, so he was due for some good luck. A .300 BABIP is considered neutral, but Tillman blew by that this season, currently sporting a very lucky .244 BABIP for the season. So the real Tillman is probably somewhere in the middle of his 2011 and 2012 seasons.

Steve Johnson (against Felix Doubront) has been awesome for the Orioles since being called up on August 3. Whether in the bullpen or as a spot starter, Johnson has put up some impressive numbers. Johnson has logged a 1.62 ERA/3.05 FIP/3.46 xFIP triple slash pitching line in his short time in the majors. Notably, Johnson’s left on base rate is an astounding 94.0%, but that is most likely a product of his relief work. Just as astounding, Johnson’s ground ball rate is an ugly 22.5%, but he’s surrendered only three homers in 33.1 innings pitched, resulting in an acceptable 8.3% homers per fly ball. Johnson’s walk rate is a touch high at 4.05 per nine, but he offsets that by striking out 11.61 batters per nine. Swing upward, Sox!

TBA (versus Zach Stewart in the finale), as always, kind of sucks.

EXPECTED LINEUP

1. Nate McLouth, LF
2. J.J. Hardy, SS
3. Chris Davis, RF
4. Adam Jones, CF
5. Matt Wieters, C
6. Jim Thome, DH
7. Mark Reynolds, 1B
8. Ryan Flaherty, 2B
9. Manny Machado, 3B

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT

In the last two weeks, the hot Orioles at the bat have been Ryan Flaherty (.357/.438/.786, .501 wOBA, 224 wRC+), Adam Jones (.356/.397/.627, .431 wOBA, 175 wRC+), Matt Wieters (.311/.404/.600, .415 wOBA, 164 wRC+), Chris Davis (.326/.404/.587, .411 wOBA, 162 wRC+) and Nate McLouth (.276/.354/.500, .376 wOBA, 137 wRC+). The cold Birds have been Robert Andino (.194/.286/.258, .259 wOBA, 56 wRC+), J.J. Hardy (.246/.270/.262, .237 wOBA, 41 wRC+) and Endy Chavez (.206/.229/.235, .206 wOBA, 20 wRC+).

The Orioles have excelled in the bullpen this season. Led by closer Jim Johnson (2.60 ERA/3.26 FIP/3.58 xFIP), the Orioles have also gotten great contributions from Darren O’Day (2.35 ERA/3.03 FIP/3.43 xFIP), Pedro Strop (2.33 ERA/3.57 FIP/3.97 xFIP), Troy Patton (2.50 ERA/3.26 FIP/3.35 xFIP), Luis Ayala (2.68 ERA/3.72 FIP/4.01 xFIP), Brian Matusz (1.50 ERA/1.94 FIP/1.96 xFIP) and Matt Lindstrom (2.72 ERA/3.49 FIP/4.03 xFIP). Gotta get to the starters if you want to win against the Orioles.

INJURIES

1B Nick Johnson (right wrist), RF Nick Markakis (recovery from September 2012 thumb surgery), LF Nolan Reimold (bulging disc in neck), 2B Brian Roberts (right hip), LHP Tsuyoshi Wada (recovery from May 2012 Tommy John surgery) and LHP Randy Wolf (torn UCL in left elbow) are out for the season. RHP Stuart Pomeranz (left oblique strain, sore back) is on the 60-day DL. 3B Wilson Betemit (right wrist) is likely out for the remainder of the season. OF Lew Ford (groin) and RHP Jason Hammel (right knee) are day-to-day.

AND WHAT ABOUT THE RED SOX?

The Red Sox are going home with their tails between their legs instead of being carried out on their shields. The only two Red Sox players that make my criteria for hot hitters (over 125 wRC+) are Jacoby Ellsbury (.385/.467/.500, .400 wOBA, 150 wRC+) and Mauro Gomez (.304/.333/.478, .344 wOBA, 112 wRC+), and I stretched a little to include Gomez. Everyone other hitter on the club has a below 75 wRC+ in the last two weeks.

As for the pitchers, Felix Doubront (2.77 ERA/2.26 FIP/3.61 xFIP) and Clay Buchholz (2.25 ERA/3.71 FIP/4.60 xFIP) have pitched very well in the last two weeks. In the bullpen, Craig Breslow (0.00 ERA/1.36 FIP/2.09 xFIP), Rich Hill (0.00 ERA/-1.89 FIP/0.31 xFIP), Scott Atchison (0.00 ERA/2.25 FIP/2.88 xFIP) and Andrew Miller (0.00 ERA/10.11 FIP/11.57 xFIP) shared the Blutarsky ERA Award, although Miller rode his luck hard and put it away wet. Junichi Tazawa (1.69 ERA/0.86 FIP/1.68 xFIP) and Mark Melancon (2.08 ERA/-0.35 FIP/-0.35 xFIP) also excelled.

SUMMARY

Will the Red Sox even show up for this series? Baltimore will, that’s for sure.

Matt Wieters (Photo: Samara Pearlstein)

After splitting a series in St. Petersburg, the Boston Red Sox (66-83, 19 games back in the AL East) return to Fenway Park for their last home stand of the season for a three-game series against the Baltimore Orioles (85-64, 1 game back in the AL East, 4.5 games ahead in the AL Wild Card race). The Orioles are 7.3 in their last 10 games and have won four in a row, while the Red Sox are 5-5 in their last 10 games and have lost their last two games.

STARTING PITCHERS: Miguel Gonzalez, TBA and Chris Tillman

Miguel Gonzalez (against Jon Lester in Friday night’s opener) has had a decent season in his rookie year but isn’t anything to write home about. The former Red Sox and Angels farmhand has compiled a 3.57 ERA/4.65 FIP/4.75 xFIP in 15 appearances (12 starts). He’s a four-pitch pitcher (fastball at around 92, slider, curve and change) who isn’t a strikeout pitcher (6.93 per nine) and walks too many to be effective (3.26 per nine). You can get the ball in the air against Gonzalez (34.6% GB rate) but his home run rate of 10.6% per fly ball is just average. Gonzalez’s batting average against is .242. So Gonzalez is just sort of average.

TBA (versus Aaron Cook) kind of sucks.

Chris Tillman (facing Felix Doubront in the finale) again shows that ERA lies. Tillman’s ERA of 3.22 looks very nice until you look at his 4.25 FIP (exactly league average) and 4.23 xFIP (two percent worse than average). Tillman’s .216 batting average against is excellent but his 2.82 walks per nine and 1.21 homers per nine counteracts it. However average you want to call Tillman, it’s a big step in the right direction for him, as he was verging on being a bust.

EXPECTED LINEUP

1. Nate McLouth, LF
2. J.J. Hardy, SS
3. Chris Davis, DH
4. Adam Jones, CF
5. Matt Wieters, C
6. Mark Reynolds, 1B
7. Manny Machado, 3B
8. Endy Chavez, RF
9. Robert Andino, 2B

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT

At the plate in the last two weeks, the hot hitters for the Orioles have been Matt Wieters (.343/.452/.657, .450 wOBA, 188 wOBP), Nate McLouth (.365/.431/.577, .440 wOBA, 182 wRC+), Adam Jones (.264/.339/.453, .348 wOBA, 118 wRC+) and J.J. Hardy (.286/.310/.500, .347 wOBA, 117 wRC+). On the wrong side of the ledger are Mark Reynolds (.170/.304/.277, .271 wOBA, 65 wRC+), Manny Machado (.226/.241/.302, .241 wOBA, 44 wRC+) and Robert Andino (.122/.200/.244, .201 wOBA, 17 wRC+).

The O’s bullpen is an embarrassment of riches. The Orioles have gotten great seasons from closer Jim Johnson (2.73 ERA/3.36 FIP/3.65 xFIP, 45 saves, 3 blown saves), as well as from Darren O’Day (2.43 ERA/3.06 FIP/3.42 xFIP), Troy Patton (2.58 ERA/3.26 FIP/3.33 xFIP), Pedro Strop (2.26 ERA/3.64 FIP/3.99 xFIP), Luis Ayala (2.69 ERA/3.89 FIP/4.09 xFIP), Matt Lindstrom (2.72 ERA/3.49 FIP/4.02 xFIP), Brian Matusz (1.74 ERA/2.04 FIP/1.91 xFIP) and Steve Johnson (1.10 ERA/2.80 FIP/3.70 xFIP). That is a very impressive bullpen, career years or not.

INJURIES

1B Nick Johnson (right wrist), RF Nick Markakis (recovery from September 2012 thumb surgery), LF Nolan Reimold (bulging disc in neck), 2B Brian Roberts (right hip) and LHP Tsuyoshi Wada (recovery from May 2012 Tommy John surgery) are out for the season, but Markakis may return for the playoffs. RHP Stuart Pomeranz (left oblique strain, sore back) is on the 60-day DL. LHP Troy Patton (sprained right ankle) and 1B Jim Thome (herniated disk in neck) are on the 15-day DL but both may return in this series. 3B Wilson Betemit (right wrist) is out indefinitely and RHP Jason Hammel (right knee) is day-to-day.

AND WHAT ABOUT THE RED SOX?

First losing season since 1997. Ugh.

In the last fortnight, the hot Red Sox hitters have been Mauro Gomez (.400/.429/.750, .491 wOBA, 214 wRC+), Jacoby Ellsbury (.346/.393/.481, .372 wOBA, 131 wRC+), Ryan Kalish (.375/.444/.375, .370 wOBA, 130 wRC+) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.250/.344/.500, .360 wOBA, 124 wRC+). However, Pedro Ciriaco (.222/.271/.289, .267 wOBA, 59 wRC+), Mike Aviles (.194/.265/.226, .220 wOBA, 27 wRC+), James Loney (.209/.244/.233, .215 wOBA, 23 wRC+), Daniel Nava (.148/.179/.185, .164 wOBA, -12 wRC+) and Scott Podsednik (.156/.182/.156, .154 wOBA, -19 wRC+) are as cold as ice.

As for the starters, Clay Buchholz (1.99 ERA/3.28 FIP/4.83 xFIP) had a nice fortnight. Aaron Cook (3.27 ERA/5.20 FIP/4.03 xFIP) flatters to deceive, and Daisuke Matsuzaka (13.03 ERA/7.45 FIP/5.08 xFIP) couldn’t deceive a dead man. In the bullpen, Craig Breslow (0.00 ERA/3.60 FIP/4.34 xFIP), Rich Hill (0.00 ERA/1.98 FIP/3.08 xFIP), Scott Atchison (0.00 ERA/2.25 FIP/2.25 xFIP) and Andrew Miller (0.00 ERA/3.10 FIP/3.10 xFIP) retain the Blutarsky ERA Award, while Junichi Tazawa (1.50 ERA/0.27 FIP/1.00 xFIP) and Mark Melancon (2.25 ERA/1.35 FIP/1.72 xFIP) were also impressive.

SUMMARY

In April if you told me that you had bet that the Orioles would be in the playoffs, I would have called you a fool for wasting your money. But I didn’t, so dinner is on you.

Johnny Pesky (Photo: Samara Pearlstein)

After splitting four games with the Indians, the Boston Red Sox (57-59 11.5 games back in the AL East) move on to Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (62-53, 6 games back in the AL East). The Orioles are 8-2 in their last 10 games, while the Red Sox are 4-6 in their last 10 games.

STARTING PITCHERS Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez and Chris Tillman

Wei-Yin Chen (versus Josh Beckett in Tuesday night’s opener) continues his impressive debut season for the Orioles. Owner of a 3.79 ERA/4.17 FIP/4.30 xFIP, Chen seems to be a pitcher that will haunt the Red Sox for years to come. Chen’s xFIP is a touch higher than his ERA but is only 3% higher than the average pitcher in 2012. Of concern to the Orioles, Chen’s GB rate of 37.2% is less than ideal but everybody doesn’t have to pitch like Aaron Cook to find success. With such a low GB rate, it’s probably not surprising that Chen has surrendered 18 homers in 140 innings pitched (1.16 HR/9). Chen throws three fastballs (four-seam, two-seam and a cutter) to go with his slider, curveball and changeup. And it sure seems that he’s keeping batters guessing with his arsenal.

Miguel Gonzalez (facing Aaron Cook), the former Red Sox farmhand, gets a chance to haunt his former organization. Signed as a free agent in March, Gonzalez graduated from AAA and has found some success in the majors. But that success seems a product of luck so far. Gonzalez has a 3.42 ERA but an ugly 5.17 FIP and a 4.79 xFIP. Gonzalez’s BABIP is .250, so his good ERA might not be sustainable. Like Chen, Gonzalez’s GB rate is low at 34.6% and has given up 10 homers in 55 innings pitched (1.63 HR/9, not good at all). However, the Orioles hope that Gonzalez’s performance and his peripherals will one day be united.

Chris Tillman (against Clay Buchholz in Thursday night’s finale) seems to have finally put it together in 2012. A second round pick by the Mariners in the 2006 draft, Tillman’s promise seemed an illusion in three seasons of promotions to the majors. But in 2012, Tillman has finally found success. What’s the difference? Tillman is throwing much harder than in years past. From 2009 to 2011, Tillman’s fastball went from 92 MPH to 89.3. However, this year, Tillman’s four-seamer speed jumped to a 92.9 MPH average and his cutter jumped from 89.2 MPH to 92.6 MPH. This change has allowed Tillman to post a 3.40 ERA/4.20 FIP/4.27 xFIP pitching triple slash line. The Orioles hope that Tillman’s added velocity will spur him to success.

EXPECTED LINEUP

1. Nick Markakis, RF
2. J.J. Hardy, SS
3. Nate McLouth, LF
4. Adam Jones, CF
5. Matt Wieters, C
6. Wilson Betemit, 1N
7. Chris Davis, 1B
8. Manny Machado, 3B
9. Robert Andino, 2B

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT

In the last seven days, the hot hitters for the Orioles have been Matt Wieters (.350/.435/.950, .558 wOBA, 260 wRC+, three homers), Adam Jones (.417/.500/.500, .425 wOBA, 169 wRC+), Nick Markakis (.296/.333/.630, .394 wOBA, 148 wRC+), Nate McLouth (.316/.409/.421, .376 wOBA, 136 wRC+) and über-rookie Manny Machado (.375/.375/1.125, .615 wOBA, 299 wRC+, three homers). However, Chris Davis (.091/.167/.091, .107 wOBA, -48 wRC+), Robert Andino (.000/.111/.000, .077 wOBA, -69 wRC+) and J.J. Hardy (.154/.185/.269, .199 wOBA, 15 wRC+) had a bad week. The Orioles hope that these players aren’t the canary in the coal mine.

In the bullpen, many Oriole pitchers are having excellent seasons (as is the case with most successful teams). Among them are Darren O’Day (2.51 ERA/2.92 FIP/3.51 xFIP), Pedro Strop (1.22 ERA/3.38 FIP/3.85), Troy Patton (2.58 ERA/3.25 FIP/3.33 xFIP), Matt Lindstrom (2.51 ERA/3.37 FIP/4.15 xFIP) and Luis Ayala (2.56 ERA/4.02 FIP/4.28 xFIP). Even Kevin Gregg (4.14 ERA/4.45 FIP/4.59 xFIP) is pitching slightly better than he did in 2011.

INJURIES

LF Nolan Reimold (bulging disc in neck), 2B Brian Roberts (right hip) and LHP Tsuyoshi Wada (recovery from May 2012 Tommy John surgery) are out for the season. 1B Nick Johnson (right wrist) and RHP Stuart Pomeranz (left oblique strain, sore back) are on the 60-day DL. 3B Ryan Flaherty (tonsilitis), RHP Jason Hammel (right knee) and 1B Jim Thome (herniated disk in neck) are on the 15-day DL. LHP Troy Patton (ankle) is day-to-day.

AND WHAT ABOUT THE RED SOX?

Another series, another injury. This time it was Will Middlebrooks who fell under the Red Sox injury curse of 2012, suffering a broken wrist. While he won’t need surgery he’s not expected back this season. The blues continue…

In the last week, the hot hitters for the Red Sox were Adrian Gonzalez (.348/.400/.870, .520 wOBA, 232 wRC+), Cody Ross (.364/.440/.773, .494 wOBA, 214 wRC+) and Dustin Pedroia (.455/.520/.500, .460 wOBA, 190 wRC+). However, Jacoby Ellsbury (.192/.222/.308, .257 wOBA, 52 wRC+), Carl Crawford (.238/.238/.524, .314 wOBA, 91 wRC+) and Ryan Lavarnway (.091/.167/.091, .131 wOBA, -34 wRC+) had a week to forget. Jacoby, Carl and Ryan need to remember that when you walk through a storm, keep your head up high and don’t be afraid of the dark.

As for the starters last week, Jon Lester (3.55 ERA/1.52 FIP/2.56 xFIP) continued to pitch well, as did Clay Buchholz (1.00 ERA/3.21 FIP/3.40 xFIP). On the down side, Josh Beckett (14.40 ERA/11.90 FIP/6.75 xFIP) and Felix Doubront (8.31 ERA/5.64 FIP/3.32 xFIP) were as ugly as poop in a baggie.

In the bullpen, Andrew Miller (0.00 ERA/2.10 FIP/2.83 xFIP) and Alfredo Aceves (0.00 ERA/2.60 FIP/4.81 xFIP) were as sweet as toffee, sharing the Blutarsky ERA Award, although Aceves’s high xFIP is a bit worrying. On the down side, Craig Breslow (9.00 ERA/5.60 FIP/6.33 xFIP) and Mark Melancon (6.75 ERA/2.72 FIP/3.83 xFIP) didn’t get the job done, although Melancon pitched better than his ERA would indicate.

SUMMARY

In this series we should determine whether the Orioles are contenders or pretenders. An Orioles sweep could bury the Red Sox and keep the Orioles in contention. A Red Sox sweep could put the Red Sox back in the Wild Card race.

P.S.: John Michael Paveskovich, requiescat in pace.

Photo: Samara Pearlstein

The 16-9 Baltimore Orioles come to Fenway Park for the weekend to play three games against the cellar-dwelling 11-13 Boston Red Sox. The Orioles are in second place in the American League East? And they are pitching well? Is this 1971?

STARTING PITCHERS – Wei-Yin Chen, Jason Hammel and Tommy Hunter

Wei-Yin Chen (taking on Jon Lester on Friday night) has had a nice start to his American pitching career. Chen is 2-0 in four starts with a 2.22 ERA. His fastball (2-and 4-seam) sits around 90 MPH but he has dialed it up to 96 in Japan for the Chunichi Dragons. He has a decent slider and changeup. However, he’s only getting a 33.6% GB rate, with a resulting xFIP of 4.53 (I know, small sample size, but still). Perhaps the Red Sox can take advantage of that and get a couple of home runs off of Chen.

Jason Hammel (on the mound for Baltimore for Aaron Cook‘s Red Sox debut) has been a revelation for the Orioles. Hammel has a career ERA in the mid fours but in five starts in 2012 he has a sterling 1.97 ERA (against a 2.84 FIP, still pretty good). Hammel is throwing his slider more this year (24.4% of the time) and his curveball and changeup less, which could explain his success. Hammel’s success can also be attributed to keeping the ball on the ground, raising his ground ball rate to 61.2% so far in 2012, compared to the approximately 45% range he had in his career. Hammel’s .253 BABIP in 2012 indicates that his success is probably unsustainable, but if he continues to keep the ball down, who knows.

Tommy Hunter (against Clay Buchholz on Sunday afternoon) is having problems this year. His velocity is down across the board, from a career-high 92.1 MPH average fastball in 2011 to 89.8 MPH in 2012. Hunter has also lost 2.5 MPH off of his slider and 1.4 MPH off of his curve. Hunter is also the victim of a bad combination for pitchers: he’s giving up too many homers (eight in five starts) and if it weren’t for his defense he would be pitching even worse than he is (6.34 FIP versus a 4.26 ERA and a .245 BABIP). Free-swinging against Hunter should be the order of the day.

EXPECTED LINEUP

1. Endy Chavez, LF
2. J.J. Hardy, SS
3. Nick Markakis, RF
4. Adam Jones, CF
5. Matt Wieters, C
6. Chris Davis, 1B
7. Mark Reynolds, DH
8. Wilson Betemit, 3B
9. Robert Andino, 2B

Nolan Reimold will start in left field if his back is healthy, while Nick Johnson will DH against righties.

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT

Matt Wieters is finally living up to his promise, hitting .303/.391/.618, a .432 wOBA and 177 wRC+, with 7 homers and 17 RBI. Also off to good starts are Adam Jones (.316/.362/.582) and Chris Davis (.316/.368/.595) Robert (insert swear here) Andino’s good start (.342/.388/.443) looks unsustainable with a .433 (!) BABIP. The slow starters are Nick Johnson (.086/.179/.143), Mark Reynolds (.136/.260/.197) and Endy Chavez (.109/.163/.130) with a .119 wOBA and a disastrous -39 wRC+.

The O’s bullpen has been atypically strong, led by Matt Lindstrom, Luis Ayala and closer Jim Johnson, all sporting the Blutarsky ERA. As a reminder of days gone by, Kevin Gregg stinks on ice, with a 7.94 ERA and a 7.55 FIP.

INJURIES

LHP Tsuyoshi Wada (partially torn ligament in his left elbow) is on the 60-day DL and will undergo Tommy John surgery. Players on the 15-day DL are C Taylor Teagarden (lower back stiffness), 2B Brian Roberts (concussion) and LHP Zach Britton (left shoulder impingement). LF Nolan Reimold is day-to-day with a bulging disc in his back.

AND WHAT ABOUT THE RED SOX?

The Sox only could take one of three against Oakland, Kevin Youkilis is on the DL with a bad back and Josh Beckett will miss a start with lat stiffness. That’s the bad news. The good news is that Will Middlebrooks had a very good debut and there is pitching help on the way in the form of Aaron Cook, who will start on Saturday. The Red Sox bullpen wasn’t at its best against the Athletics but at least it doesn’t look like the disaster it did in the beginning of the year. Adrian Gonzalez has hit a cold streak (hitless in his last 17 at bats) but David Ortiz is scorching hot, hitting .391/.441/.707.

SUMMARY

Yes, it’s surprising to see a winning baseball team from Charm City. Yes, it’s surprising that the Orioles are pitching well. But can they keep it up? (That’s what she said.)

Former Red Sox General Manager Dan Duquette signed on as the latest executive hoping to restore glory to the Peter Angelos led Oriole franchise.  Faced with competing with two financial titans (Yankees and Red Sox), and two smart and savvy upstart franchises (Rays and Blue Jays), he faces a Herculean challenge; especially since he needs a complete top-to-bottom rebuild.  I wish Mr. Duquette all of the luck in the world.  He’s a smart man that gets a bad rap from the Boston crowd.  Unfortunately, unless he catches lightning in a bottle like the 2003 Royals, it’s going to be another 3-5 years before they get above the .500 mark again–and that’s if everything goes to plan.

Catcher:  Matt Wieters (2011 stats – .262/.328/.450); Taylor Teagarden (2011 stats – .235/.278/.294)

In last season’s “Know Thy Enemy” preview of the Orioles, I declared, “Perhaps, I’m foolish, but I believe in Matt Wieters.”  As it turns out, I wasn’t so foolish after all.  After a slow start at the plate, Wieters busted out in a big way in August and September posting a .275/.354/.556 line with 12 home runs and 12 doubles.  Add that production to his tremendous defense behind the plate, and you have a perennial 3-5 win player that the Orioles can build around.  Taylor Teagarden, on the other hand, is a mediocre, replacement level back-up catcher who probably wouldn’t make most team’s 25-man rosters.

First Base:  Chris Davis (2011 stats – .266/.305/.402); Nick Johnson (2011 stats – No stats)

If hitting for tremendous power was the only asset a player needed to be successful, Davis would be a massive superstar.  Unfortunately, it’s not.  Davis’s mediocre defense, inability to draw walks, and astronomically high strikeout rate makes him a long shot to ever be more than a fringe major leaguer.  Still, the Orioles plan to have him as their starting first baseman.  The oft-injured Johnson comes to the Orioles to serve as Davis’s backup.  Due to his ability to draw walks, he’s definitely serviceable.  That is, if he can stay healthy, which is pretty unlikely.

Second Base:  Brian Roberts (2011 stats – .221/.273/.331); Robert Andino (2011 stats – .263/.327/.344)

As recently as 2009, Roberts was one of baseball’s best second basemen.  Then, injuries took their toll, and he’s been limited to only 98 games over the past two seasons.  If he can stay healthy, he’s good for 60-70 extra base hits, 80 walks, and solid defense.  If not, they’ll be stuck with Robert Andino starting in his place.  I hate Robert Andino, and I hope he has a terrible season.  Honestly, that’s as fair as I can be at this point.

Third Base:  Mark Reynolds (2011 stats – .221/.323/.484);

Do you remember what I said about Davis?  Reynolds is a pretty reasonable facsimile at third base.  A three true outcomes guy, he’ll mash a ton of home runs, while flirting with (or surpassing) 200 strikeouts each season.  His defensive abilities are “eyes bleeding” brutal, so a move to first base would probably serve him well.

Shortstop:  J.J. Hardy (2011 stats – .269/.310/.491)

After two down seasons, Hardy bounced back in a big way last season, hitting 30 home runs and displaying Fielding Bible award quality defense.  Going into his age-29 season, he should still be able to provide similar value in the upcoming season.  I’m a little concerned about his walk rate as it dropped to 5.5%, a career low.  If he can raise it back up to his 2008/2009 levels, he’ll be significantly more valuable to the Orioles in 2012.

Left Field:  Nolan Reimold (2011 stats – .247/.328/.453); Endy Chavez (2011 stats – .301/.323/.426)

Nolan Reimold is ill-equipped to be the Orioles starting left fielder, but that seems to be a problem for the Orioles at several positions.  Chavez provides a solid late-inning defensive replacement at all three outfield positions.

Center Field:  Adam Jones (2011 stats – .280/.319/.466)

A lot was expected out of Jones after he was obtained as the center piece in the Erik Bedard trade.  In some respects, he’s delivered.  In others, not so much.  He’s developed the power and ability to hit for average, but his defensive skills and on-base abilities leave little to be desired.  As he enters his age-26 season, he still has a lot to prove.  Due to his potential, he probably serves best as trade bait as some teams may be willing to overpay for his potential.

Right Field:  Nick Markakis (2011 stats – .284/.351/.406)

Do you remember when Markakis was on the verge of stardom?  I do, and I’m wondering what happened to that player.  Still, he’s only 28, so he has the ability to turn it around.  He certainly has the skill set (the ability to draw walks, extra base power, above average arm), but a lot will need to go right for him to rediscover that kind of production.  If he can somehow raise his HR/FB and walk rates rate back to the 10-12% range, it would go a long way toward restoring the shine to his tarnished star.  Projection: 2-3 fWAR

Designated Hitter:  Wilson Betemit (2011 stats – .285/.343/.452)

Betemit’s hardly the ideal DH candidate, but he has a few useful skills (ability to draw walks, power) that make him a potentially solid starter.  More importantly, it keeps him off of the field where he can be a tremendous liability.  He’s never received more than 412 PAs in a single season, so it’ll be interesting to see what he can do if he’s given regular playing time.  At best, he’s a 2 win player.

Starting Pitcher 1:  Jake Arrieta (2011 season: 10-8, 5.02, 1.46)

He showed some improvement in 2011 improving his ground ball and strikeout rates.  Unfortunately, his walk and home run rates declined; thus negating any gains he might have made.  Luckily, his 15% HR/FB rate is something that should regress in the upcoming season, but even if his strikeout and walk rate peripherals remained identical; his FIP would still end up being around 4.50.  Even more of a concern is that his season ended after pitching only 119-1/3 innings in 22 starts due to an elbow injury that required season-ending surgery.  I still think he’s best used as a back-of-the-rotation starter, but the Orioles will need him to be a lot more.  If Arrieta ends up being the Orioles best pitcher this season, they’re in for a world of hurt.

Starting Pitcher 2:  Tommy Hunter (2011 season:  4-4, 4.68, 1.36)

Tommy Hunter is just another in a long line of unimpressive Oriole starting pitchers.  He has a five-pitch arsenal with decent velocity, but none of his offerings are of the swing and miss variety.  At this point, he allows too many home runs, strikes out too few, and allows far too much contact to be anything more than a back of the rotation pitcher.  If he can figure out a way to induce more ground balls (50%+) by using his cutter and sinker a little more, he could be able to improve his future outlook a bit.

Starting Pitcher 3:  Jason Hammel (2011 season:  7-13, 4.76, 1.43)

If I was going to pick on pitcher out of this group that I like more than anyone else, it’s Hammel.  Why?  Because he’s the only pitcher in the rotation the Orioles can count on to pitch at least 170 innings.  Unfortunately, Hammel’s peripherals all dipped in the wrong direction last season.  He saw his strikeout rate plummeted from 18% to 13%; ground ball rate dropped from 47% to 43%; and walk rate increased from 6% to 9%.  While those numbers are clearly a bad sign, he was a solid 3.70 FIP pitcher over the previous two seasons.  As such, I feel he could bounce back slightly in 2012 to become the Orioles most reliable starting pitcher.

Starting Pitcher 4:  Wei-Yin Chen (2011 season:  No stats; pitched in Japan)

I’ll admit it.  I don’t know a whole lot about Chen, but Daniel Moroz of the excellent Camden Crazies did an excellent breakdown of Chen back in January.  While we shouldn’t expect too much out of Chen, he should at least be serviceable.  His 3.00 ERA and 9/2 K/BB ratio in 15 innings this spring have been promising, but his fly ball heavy GB/FB ratio are a bit of a concern.

Starting Pitcher 5:  Brian Matusz (2011 season:  1-9, 10.69, 2.11)

Brian Matusz’s 2011 season was nothing short of a disaster.  While some could say that he was the victim of poor luck (as evidenced by his .382 BABIP and 20% HR/FB rate), much of his problems were due to bad mechanics, poor location, and a significant decline in his velocity.  Now, the real question is, “Can he rebound?”  Luckily, there’s some precedent for pitchers rebounding after seasons as brutal as the one he just went through.  Roy Halladay and Clay Buchholz good examples.  If he comes back, he’ll need to regain his velocity, strikeout more batters, and induce more ground balls.  He’s looked good so far this spring.  Hopefully, that success translates to the regular season.

Relief Pitching:  Jim Johnson (2011 stats – 2.67, 1.11, 92) , Kevin Gregg (2011 stats – 4.37, 1.63, 60), Matt Lindstrom (2011 stats – 3.00, 1.22, 54), Brad Bergessen (2011 stats – 5.70, 1.50, 101), Jason Berken (2011 stats – 5.36, 1.79, 47), Darren O’Day (2011 stats – 5.40, 1.32, 17), Alfredo Simon (2011 stats – 4.90, 1.45, 116)

The Orioles bullpen is in slightly better shape with Gregg out of the closer role, but Johnson’s hardly a lock down guy either.  Johnson has a solid K/BB ratio, but his strikeout rate is far too low for someone with his velocity and stuff.  Given the rate, he induces whiffs, the strikeouts should return.  Setting him up are Gregg and Lindstrom, both former closers.  They should be serviceable, but they’ll probably be used in higher leverage roles than they probably should be.  The remainder of the bullpen is full of replacement level pitchers.  I wouldn’t expect a whole lot out of any of them.

And the season begins…

There’s no doubt the bureaucrats “got it right” on this one – pairing the league’s biggest rivals in the 2010 MLB opener. All signs point to a classic, fit with a marquee pitching matchup, palpable hatred on both sides, and the two best teams from the past decade kicking off the new one.

Josh Beckett takes the hill against C.C. Sabathia as the two AL East juggernaughts begin their annual battle for divisional supremacy. Get to your TV at 8:00 pm sharp – or 6 pm if you’re like me in the Mountain Time Zone – and prepare to watch baseball at its finest.

Keys of the Game

Starting Pitcher

Coming off a strong spring, striking out 22 in 19.1 innings while walking just 5, Beckett certainly has the edge over Sabathia, who has looked sluggish in 18.2 IP thus far (15 K, 8 BB). Though spring stats are rarely an indication of long-term success, they are a good indicator of a hurler’s readiness at the season’s onset. If C.C. continues to struggle with his command, he could be in for a long night. Expect Beckett to be sharp as the team gets off to an early lead in the first few innings.

Designated Hitter

One of the more interesting “matchups” of the opener is that of each team’s respective designated hitter – and prepare to hear a lot more about these two over the course of the season.

Papi seems to have brushed off the February rust reasonably well, slugging three homers in 62 spring at-bats, though turning in a concerning 5:14 K:BB ratio. Still, he seems likely to have shaken the boogie-man from early 2009, looking poised for a rebound season. It’s hard to say how much confidence the Fenway Faithful will have in Papi after last season’s disappointment, but still, like any other year, the team’s chances will hinge on the success or failures of their hulking DH.

Returning from whence he came, Yankees’ DH Nick Johnson begins his second tour in the Bronx, having played for New York between 2001-2003. Putting forth a surprising display of power this spring, Johnson mashed three homers in just 39 at-bats. Having hit just 8 longballs all of last year, Johnson is a strong breakout candidate who could find himself launching plenty of homers into the short, wind-aided right field porch of new Yankee Stadium. As for tomorrow’s matchup, however, Fenway’s spacious right-center may make for a few loud, albeit harmless, outs.

Key Matchups:

C.C. Sabathia v. David Ortiz

In many ways, this matchup will be a measuring stick for Ortiz’ prospects this season. Ortiz had visible struggles against good fastballs last season, and will be given no favors against Sabathia’s 94 mph heat.

To make matters worse, Sabathia brings a tight, low-80s slider to the mix, which doesn’t seem fair considering the lefty-on-lefty matchup.

If Ortiz can find a way to hang in and make good at-bats, it will be a welcome sight. Watch Papi’s balance, especially after seeing a slider after a couple fastballs. If he can maintain good positioning in the box while putting good cuts on the ball, it’s a victory in itself and a great sign for the remainder of the season.

Josh Beckett v. Mark Teixeira

Another prime pitcher-hitter matchup, we should all consider ourselves blessed that we can watch baseball at this level, with this talent, in this context.

This battle will be a tough one for Beckett. The hurler’s arsenal has always pivoted off his fastball, which can be a problem when your opponent has been known to tattoo the pitch. Instead, Beckett will have to rely on his changeup, a solid pitch – some would say his best offering last season – but one he has fought command of in recent years.

If the change is working, Beckett will have success. However, Teixeira clubs the offspeed stuff too. Hey, he isn’t one of the best in the game for nothing. If Beckett can upset Tex’ timing, then anything goes.

Look for Beckett to try to sneak a couple strikes by Tex early in the count, then drop the hammer out of the zone for strike three. Teixeira has been known to chase at times, so getting ahead is particularly valuable in this matchup.

C.C. Sabathia v. Kevin Youkilis

This is a great one for Youk. Though it’s hard to peg anyone for success against a perennial Cy Young candidate, Youk’s talents match up perfectly against Sabathia. Mashing fastballs and changeups, Youk’s relative struggles against good sliders should be somewhat negated by the fact that he swings from the right side.

In the end, Sabathia has nowhere to hide and Youk goes yard on a hanging breaking ball. I’ll call my shot with two down in the third inning, after Youk has had a chance to see his stuff once and refresh his memory.

“For Entertainment Purposes Only”

The Sox shake a few runs out of Sabathia in the early innings, who continues to battle the leftover rust from March. Cameron (.326/.436/.558 in 43 spring ABs) endears himself to the fans from the onset, while Hermida campaigns to become a favorite with a key pinch-hit (.450/.500/.650 in 40 spring ABs). Beckett rolls, the bullpen holds, and the Yankees fade quietly into the April night. The Sox begin the season with a bang, on their way to a season sweep of the Yanks, 19 games to none.

Red Sox 4.7, Yankees 2.1

WP: Beckett (1-0)

LP: Sabathia (0-1)

SV: Papelbon (1)

HR: Youkilis (1)

For a team that won the 2009 league championship while standing atop the AL East leaderboards for much of the past decade, the team would seem, at first glance, bereft of sleepers.

Not so, however, even for these ’09 defending champions. A favorite even at this early juncture in Spring Training, the club could get even better by the time the season rolls around.

SP/RP Phil Hughes

Hughes is – and for quite some time has been – one of the best young pitchers in affiliated baseball. It was not so long ago – three years to be exact – that Phil Hughes was the best pitching prospect in the game, edging out Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey for that honor.

Though hamstring injuries and bouts of wildness slowed down his progress during the ’07 and ’08 campaigns, Hughes came back with a vengeance last season, reminding all bystanders why he was once such a highly touted prospect.

His 96 strikeouts against just 28 walks in 86.0 innings erased any memory of his two previous subpar seasons. An uptick in his fastball by 2.5 miles per hour and the addition of a cut fastball were the primary benefactors of this success, resulting in a contact percentage that dropped 10 points (87.4 contact percentage in ’08 versus 77.6 contact percentage in ’09) and an O-Swing percentage that rose by over 9 points (16.5 O-Swing percentage in ’08; 25.7 O-Swing percentage in ’09).

Still just 23 years old, the Yankees owe it to Hughes and to themselves to give the hurler another shot at a full-time rotation gig. Worth 2.2 wins last season, that number could easily swell to four or five if he pitches up to his potential.

The real question going forward is whether or not he’ll be afforded the opportunity to seize the fifth rotation slot. Before the signing of Javier Vazquez, it seemed like a foregone conclusion. Now, the situation is a bit murkier, as Joba Chamberlain returns for 2010 as incumbent and favorite.

Perhaps a second pressing question exists, however – whether Hughes can sustain his strikeout rates in a move to the rotation. This will depend on the success of Hughes’ cutter and the relative velocity attached to his fastball. The 2.5 mph rise in his heater is not likely to survive a move to the rotation, so we will quickly find out whether the cutter is enough of an out-pitch to make up for this presumed and impending loss in velocity.

Fangraphs.com seems to think that his cutter is such an offering, in fact, in was his best per hundred pitches last season. However, everything in pitching depends on context – and that context will change dramatically when hitters face a diminished four-seam fastball, knowing they have that extra split second to decide what pitch is coming and whether or not to swing.

Hopefully the Yankees don’t read this article and don’t put Hughes in the rotation. Maybe disinformation would have been the best route for this segment of AL East Sleepers. Then again, maybe that was what we were thinking all along…

DH Nick Johnson

A former New York farmhand and first baseman, Johnson makes a triumphant and surprising return to the Bronx for 2010.

During the six seasons since Johnson last donned pinstripes, he has battled numerous injuries while maintaining most of the traits that made him one of the better Yankee hitters in 2003. His discerning batter’s eye is still one of the best in the league, while he excels at making quality, consistent contact despite the overall lack of power he displayed last season.

It is this last point – lack of power –that makes Johnson such an interesting acquisition.

With the extensive coverage afforded the New York’s wind currents, short right porch, and resulting surge in home runs exhibited by multiple Yankee veterans, Johnson becomes an ideal candidate for a breakout.

With a batting eye refined enough to draw 100-plus walks, a 15-20 home run season could bring Johnson’s OPS into the high .800s – just about what they got out of Hideki Matsui last year. Considering that Johnson was able to post an .831 OPS while hitting just 8 longballs, Johnson could compete with Adam Lind to have the best season of any DH in the division.

If the power can come around, it all comes to Johnson’s brittle frame to hold up over the course of a full season – something he has never been able to do. The move to DH will certainly help but, as always in baseball, there are no guarantees.

SP Joba Chamberlain

After a blistering hot start to his career in ’07, Joba has cooled off considerably.

Pitching out of relief his rookie year, Chamberlain was able to “let it all hang out” blowing away hitters with a 97 mph heater. He racked up a 12.75 K/9 that year, walking just 6 batters in 24.0 innings.

He was superb again in 2008, posting a 2.65 FIP ERA while sending down 10.58 per nine via the K.

2009 was a different story, however, as the workload of starting full-time took its toll on his fastball velocity, dropping to a career-low average of 92.5 mph. Still a very good heater, it was not quite the 95.0 mph offering of 2008 – and certainly not the 97.0 mph megalith of ’07.

Coming into 2010, Chamberlain’s role with the club is in just as much question as Hughes’. With just one rotation spot available for two well-qualified pitchers, the fate of each relies on the fate of the other – and Joba could just as easily find himself in the rotation as he could in the bullpen.

Perhaps the hurler would benefit from a move back to the bullpen. Since his debut in the majors, he’s been at his best form in relief, while the affect on his stuff bears out this point. Though any such move involves the risk of the Yankees giving up on the potential of his developing into a great starter in their fifth slot, he could be even better in the 8th inning than Hughes was.

If the 2007 and 2008 seasons are any indicator, the transition will be seamless and Joba will reclaim his place among the most dominant pitchers in the league. It all seems to be depending on that fastball velocity, as it was likely the missing piece from his 2009 year.

If Hughes works out in the rotation and Joba returns to the ‘pen, the Yankees could have one of the deepest pitching staffs in all of baseball – in both the rotation and in relief.

Aside from the top five of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Javier Vazquez, and Hughes/Chamberlain, the team has plenty of arms contracted to step up in the case of ineffectiveness or injury. With Hughes and Chamberlain, the club has six quality starters. Add in contingency plans Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre, there is little that can impair the Yankees’ rotation in 2010.

On the other hand, the bullpen is nearly as strong as the starting staff.

With Mariano Rivera confidently manning the ninth while Chamberlain or Hughes securing the eighth frame, they can choose either David Robertson (2009: 43.2 IP, 63 K, 23 BB, 3.05 FIP ERA) or Alfredo Aceves (84.0 IP, 69 K, 16 BB, 3.75 FIP) to take the seventh frame. With Damaso Marte and Mark Melancon/Boone Logan/Edwar Ramirez rounding out the ‘pen this team should have no troubling finishing out close games.

Taking into account how superlative the New York offense has always been and is expected to be, there is little standing in the team’s way of another playoff appearance – and possibly a second consecutive World Series Championship.

Hopefully, for the sake of our beloved home town team, this will not be the case. However, with the across-the-board talent and depth featured by this team, it would seem like an upset if this team’s season ended before the ALCS playoff.

• Mike Lowell is likely to be traded to Texas for catcher Max Ramirez, who is likely to open the season in Triple-A. Assuming he opens the season in the majors, that would lead us to assume Victor Martinez is moved to first and Kevin Youkilis put at third. At that point, this article becomes moot. We will proceed under the assumption this will not happen, because it would catch many by surprise.
• The vacant spot at third base will be filled by either Kevin Youkilis or Adrian Beltre. If filled by Youkilis, first base is to be filled by either Casey Kotchman or Nick Johnson. The outcome will rely on market valuation. Since Scott Boras is asking for an eight-figure annual salary for Beltre which Boston will not pay, we must proceed with the assumption that Beltre is out and Youkilis slides to third. If the price comes down later in the season, great. Let’s talk then.
• We then are faced with two choices. Slide Youkilis over to third and commit to Nick Johnson as first-baseman… or leave the window open for Beltre with the expectation that Kotchman ends up at first.

The question is then:

Is Nick Johnson appreciably better than Casey Kotchman based on actual value?

To me, it’s a rather simple answer: No. Casey Kotchman is the better option than Nick Johnson.

Johnson, entering his age-31 year, is coming off a .291/.426/.405 season, split between the Washington Nationals and Florida Marlins. He missed a big chunk of time after being traded to Florida, only furthering the notion that Johnson is injury prone.  His career high in games played was 147 back in 2006. That was followed by a missed year, then 38 and 133 games respectively. Looking over his career, 100 games is about all you can expect from this guy.

Johnson’s value is in his plate discipline. His walks per plate appearance in 2009 (1.72) was third behind Adrian Gonzalez and Adam Dunn. Unlike Gonzalez and Dunn, Johnson’s power has all but disappeared. His fractured leg that wiped him out from 2008 returned him to one without power. 10 home runs is his ceiling in Fenway Park (although he would get a nice bump in doubles).

Defensively, a consensus on Johnson is that he’s average to below-average.

Switching to Casey Kotchman, he has gold glove defense and potential on offense. In full-time duty for Atlanta before the trade to Boston, he was at .282/.354/.409. Not bad, right?

In his time in Atlanta, Kotchman’s power mysteriously vanished. When he was with the Angels, he had enough thump to be a good first-baseman. Prior to the trade for Mark Teixeira in 2008, Kotchman was hitting .287/.327/.448. After the trade, it was .237/.331/.316, followed by the .409 SLG this year.

Kotchman is entering his age 27 year with the Monster looming in front of him. Simply looking at previous production, age, and park, I can’t imagine Kotchman wouldn’t be good for a slugging percentage around .425. This is done completely based on assumptions and eye-balling, and is not based in any statistical valuation. Bill James’ 2010 projection seems to agree, predicting Kotchman for a .419 slugging percentage. Assuming James is spot on with Kotchman at .272/.342/.417, is he better than what Johnson can put up?

Johnson has a projected .289/.414/.434 line coming up via Bill James, but as we all know, offense is just one part of the game. Johnson ranked at -6.6 UZR/150 at first in 2009, with Kotchman at 11.1.

What have we learned so far? Kotchman is an elite defender at first, especially more so than Nick Johnson. Offensively, Johnson provides the clear advantage in on base percentage, but is the advantage enough to nullify his defensive impact, the additional salary Johnson would require (he certainly won’t get this, but FanGraphs valued his 2009 season at $10.9 million, which would have been a market value of $15 million) and the loss of upside in Kotchman tapping back into his potential he flashed in 2004?

If the decision was strictly Johnson and Kotchman to be our first-baseman next year, I’d say that it’s a wash at best. Boston has already tendered Kotchman a contract, and it will probably come in at around $3.5 million.  If we bring in Johnson for a value of, say, $6-7 million, we’ve closed off any chance of signing Adrian Beltre should his price come down, at the expense of Kotchman producing at a WAR/VORP/wOBA/wRC++/WSYCTM (Whatever Statistic You Choose To Measure) appreciably similar to Johnson.

Sure, you run the risk of Kotchman falling flat on his face like he did in Atlanta. You assume the same risk with Johnson and his injury history.

I would much rather take the risk of a younger, gold-glove first-baseman re-establishing his offensive value than Johnson, especially when Adrian Beltre could fall in our laps if (when?) his price comes down. If we have to look for a replacement mid-season, Adrian Gonzalez figures to be more available midseason than he is now, at least according to the most recent reports at the time of this writing. And okay, let’s get off the Adrian Gonzalez bandwagon for a sec: even if he’s not available, the odds are we will be able to get a slugging first-baseman rather easily.

There are a lot more factors in favor of Kotchman than Johnson. If Beltre becomes available at a market valuation that is worth his addition, you’ll see me dancing in the streets. I can’t say the same about Johnson.

UPDATE: Well, so much for that. Looks like Johnson’s becoming the Yankees’ DH for $5.5 million over one year. Point still stands.

Also unsurprisingly, Boston offered arbitration to its two eligible players: Jason Bay and Billy Wagner. Let’s run through the implications for offering arbitration to the two, and then take a look at players who’s possible Boston future was impacted by their club’s decision.

JASON BAY: Depending on who you talk to, Bay is either the top, or second-top, bat on the market. His free agent value is not compromised by this decision. If Boston brings him back, obviously they don’t get additional draft picks. If they lose him, the odds are they lose him to a team whose first-round pick is not protected. (The bottom 15.) This will give them an extra first-round pick as well as a compensatory pick (the round in between the first and second). Assuming that a team in the bottom 15 does sign him, however (like the Mets), the Sox will get the compensatory pick and the Mets’ second round pick. There’s been conflicting reports on if the Sox like Bay or Holliday better, but can you believe that Boston may actually be better off signing Holliday from a drafting perspective? I bring this up in the Matt Holiday section.

BILLY WAGNER: By offering arbitration to Wagner, Boston depresses Wagner’s asking price, which puts Boston in a great position. Those who might be willing to give up their first round pick for Wagner only if Wagner would at an affordable deal are now in play… as Wagner is going to be forced to ask for less. And heck, those that have money to burn might bring in more than one Type-A, which would benefit Boston in giving them a compensatory round pick and their second/third rounder.

Those teams in the bottom 15 know that Wagner is now more affordable to them given the price and their ability in not losing the first-round pick. There are many moving parts that end up with Boston grabbing two draft picks. That’s not shabby for a player they acquired for Chris Carter, a 4A player in Boston.

If Wagner accepts arbitration with the team, you have to love his arm setting up Jonathan Papelbon this coming year. He’s certain, even in arbitration, to accept a greatly reduced salary. Even if it’s something like $5 million, Wagner could be worth every penny.

Okay, other players that may be in play with Boston…

ADRIAN BELTRE/NICK JOHNSON: If you think that Boston needs to sign a third-baseman or a first-baseman, there won’t be any problems here. Beltre was offered arbitration, while Nick Johnson wasn’t. Both are Type-B free agents, so there’s no bearing on their free agent value here.

JERMAINE DYE: As a Type-A, it was a no-brainer for Chicago to decline. They’re not interested in bringing Dye back and by depressing Dye’s value significantly with the arbitration offer, he would have been likely to return. I promoted Dye as a possible Red Sox back when evaluating left-field candidates not named Bay or Holliday.

MIKE GONZALEZ/RAFAEL SORIANO: Gonzalez and Soriano are paired here because they both are coming from Atlanta, both are seeking multi-year deals and both hope to market themselves as closers… as well as both being Type-A players. Boston’s expressed interest in Soriano and I would hope have discussed Gonzalez. If the team is going to sign Matt Holliday, then chasing Gonzalez or Soriano to bolster the bullpen makes sense. Is a setup man worth a first-round pick? Doubtful. Worth a second? At that point, it may behoove Boston to enter the sweepstakes.

RICH HARDEN: Harden was not offered arbitration. As a Type-B (meaning no team would have lost a pick and Chicago would have grabbed a compensation pick) player, this is rather surprising. His free agent value remains unchanged. We learned last night that Boston is serious about signing Harden.

MATT HOLLIDAY: Holliday was offered arbitration by the Cardinals. As a Type-A free agent, Boston might stand to benefit more by signing Matt Holliday over Bay — assuming the team prefers Holliday’s age, defense and offense, of course. How? Well, Boston would lose its first round pick to the Cardinals. But if the team that signs Bay has it’s first round pick available, Boston would actually move up in the draft. To argue, then, that signing Holliday would cause Boston to lose it’s first round pick is not exactly true. It may even strengthen Boston’s drafting position. Of course, it could all be for naught and a bottom 15 team could sign Bay. If so, it’s not exactly the end of the world to go from an end of the first round pick to an early second round pick.

MIGUEL TEJADA: Tejada was a Type A free agent whose value on the market just soared thanks to the Astros declining arbitration on the shortstop. Tejada’s value, as covered in a shortstop roundup here, is a bit sketchy. His defense is either good, average or bad, depending who you talk to or what numbers you look at. His home/road splits show that he really, really liked Minute Maid Park. And as for his overall offensive resurgence, there’s nothing in the data that suggests it’s repeatable. That said, he’s one of the best bats on the market.