Evan Brunell’s 2010 MLB Predictions: Does Boston win it?

As the advent of spring training games are upon us, I thought I’d kick off everyone’s favorite little exercise by providing my own personal predictions as to how I think the season will shake out. Now, before I do so, a word of caution: predictions can change daily based on events. Heck, my predictions change multiple times a week. But I’ve gotta make predictions at some point, right? Point being, I might disagree with my own predictions a week from now. Most of the time, these kind of predictions are an exercise in fallacy, but it’s not going to stop me from trying.

I don’t know why I made things harder on myself, but I set out to present an exact record. This means I had to go into a spreadsheet and make sure all the wins and losses totaled the correct amount of games while also balancing out to a .500 record. Took me a while, but dadgum it, I did it. One thing I did not control for was the unbalanced schedule (in a total record sense), but I already strained my tenuous math skills, so I wasn’t about to complicate it further.

Click “read more” or the headline to find my predictions.

Yankees buy on small sample size

Yesterday the Yankees made an interesting move and added Chan Ho Park to the roster for $1.2 million and $300,000 in incentives. This gives them some options regarding Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes and could result in one going to Triple-A to start the year. The question is does Park really bring anything to the Yankees?

Park is one of those players who benefited early in his career from park factors in Dodger Stadium from 1996-2001, long before FIP or QERA was around to let the masses see what was really going on. His FIP in LA was 4.33, but he looked much better with an ERA of 3.77 and clearly a factor of his low number of home runs against.

In 2002 he moved to Texas and things have never been the same. His ERA since leaving has been 5.22, but in a very small sample size of 50 IP last year he looked to turn things around. Was this change for real giving the Yankees a new bullpen threat or was it nothing but sample size issues and a regression in Yankee Stadium sure to come?

Wagner to Atlanta, Pedroia to Short, Tito Really to the Tea Cabinet?

Pedroia to Short?

Sometimes, the answer is so obvious that it was staring you in the face the entire time. Well, maybe Pedroia to short isn’t that obvious, but I’m surprised that it took this long for anyone to suggest the move at all, myself included.

There are risks here, though. Pedroia was moved off short for a reason. Even during the minor leagues, many scouts liked him at the keystone long term. Now, three seasons into his major league career at second base, there is no saying what his arm or his range will look like across the diamond. Though he’s got great fielding skills for a second baseman, there are differences in reading grounders, going to the left up the middle, throwing distances, positional defensive standards, and a litany of other concerns when changing positions…

Reaching into the MailBag

This one courtesy of James, aka “jgr jgr”. James submitted a few puzzling questions, though this one made me think the most:

“Is there some hitter or pitcher out there under the radar that you think will be wearing a new Boston uniform in 2010?”

Well, going off this question, we’ll avoid talking about the likely suspects, including Bay, Holliday, Harden, or Scutaro who have all received a great deal of coverage not only on this site, but on Sox discussion boards ‘Nation’ wide (Yes, that was a pun. No, I won’t apologize.)

As for truly under the radar names, we must look really deep into the free agent roster, probably to the point of back-end bullpen types or bench hitters. While these moves may not be exciting to the average layman, these are the transactions that make championships. Depth and injury/slump insurance is perhaps one of the most underrated aspects of building a championship team. John Henry could grab any fan off the streets to build a team that could win 100 games if everything were guaranteed to go as planned. However, the true talent and meddle of a front office is tested by their contingency planning.

When a team has the type of financial resources the Sox have, it’s difficult to pick a truly “under the radar” name that will make an impact, as the players the team is likely to sign are usually the top free agents, too big to fly below the hard deck.

But there is still value to be that the rest of the baseball world is not discussing. Here’s a few that I think the Sox may settle on before the off-season ends:

Value at Starting Pitcher

Assuming that the Cubs re-sign Rich Harden, while Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard find other suitors, I would love to see the Sox sign Carl Pavano. Though his 5.10 ERA left much to be desired, Pavano actually turned in quite a season in 2009, with a 4.00 FIP ERA to go along with a 3.77 K:BB rate. While his 6.64 K/9 was merely average, a 1.76 BB/9 rate is more than adequate.

If you have burning questions about Red Sox Baseball, please submit your questions to Mike_Silver_FireBrandAL@yahoo.com. We’d love to hear what’s got you thinking!

Theo’s “95-Win Team”, Beckett’s Extension, Falling Dominoes, and the Mailbag

Theo’s “95-Win Team”

In recent years, one of the most important axioms put forth by the Theo Epstein and the Red Sox front office is the law of the “95-Win Team”. According to this directive, the team’s goal is to target 95-wins annually in an effort to compete every season. This is really a great piece of wisdom, as a team that wins 95 games will make the playoffs most years. In fact, the Wild Card winner since 2003 – the first year Theo took the esteemed office of Red Sox General Manger – has averaged a record of just about 95-67.

However, this doctrine relies on one major assumption – that this team will always be able to perform up to their expected level…

Josh Beckett’s Extension

Over the past few days, rumors have been circulating that the Sox and the Josh Beckett camp have been discussing a contract extension. Adding fuel to the rumors, Beckett and agent Michael Moye have indicated that there will be no hometown discount for the Sox, so the team will have to be ready to shell out quite a bit of cash.

Introducing the FireBrand Mailbag

And, finally, introducing the FireBrand mailbag, where we will answer all of your darkest, most burning questions about Red Sox Baseball. If you would like to ask the writers a question to be answered on the site, please forward your inquiries to Mike_Silver_FireBrandAL@yahoo.com.

Seeing Straight on Aroldis Chapman

When any new phenomenon arrives, it takes a while for people to adjust their lifestyle and accommodate these changes. Cell phones are the most recent example. The Internet was another.

In the baseball world, free agent-prospects are the newest slang, which, understandably, are forcing major league teams to adjust – with varied results.

Baseball’s newest free agent-prospect phenom, Aroldis Chapman is expected to visit Boston today, on the heels of a visit to New York on Monday.

A world-class talent, he is turning baseball economics on its head. On the one hand, he is a prospect – a lean, projectable lefty at a young age, 21. On the other, he will command the salary of a major league free agent – not what you’d expect of a “prospect”.

The newest “It Kid” from overseas, Chapman comes fully loaded with everything that makes scouts salivate more than Pavlov’s dogs: a ferocious fastball clocked as high as 102 mph and a long 6-4 frame. As a result, the young Cuban is considered the best prospect to reach the MLB this side of Stephen Strasburg – and he’s a lefty to boot.

But there’s a problem with taking this position; mainly, the fact that he’s even labeled a “prospect”. Sure, he has all the traditional markings of one. He’s got exceptional tools, he’s projectable, he’s raw, and, most importantly, he’s young. However, under the modern economics of baseball, with escalating salaries and widely varying budgets, there are two nonnegotiable criteria that give value to and create the allure of the “prospect”…

Looking at the rest of the postseason field

Fire Brand has been very aggressive these past few days at completely breaking down the Angels from Boston’s perspective. We’ve brought to you a look at the hitters, pitchers, the running game, Angels’ official postseason roster, other breakdowns and of course… predictions.

Let’s take a (short) break and look at the other series which begins tonight.

TOR 12, BOS 0: Jays Fly Away, Sweep Sox

After getting swept for the second series in a row, the Red Sox look as if they are used to the late season beat down, getting blown out by the Blue Jays, 12-0, Wednesday night.

Roy Halladay went the distance last night, while Tim Wakefield let up five in only three innings of work. Joey Gathright gave the Red Sox a few brief moments of hope, but the Doc had a quick cure for those, namely six strikeouts over nine innings and only three hits.

9/30: Scrub time

GAME NOTES: Well, the Sox lost last night… but clinched the Wild Card. Whatever works, I guess. Scrub lineup tonight, check the comments for it. Please note I will be holding live chats for every playoff game the Red Sox are in.

Jays turned down Sox’s 6-for-1 offer on Halladay

I’m on the Rotoworld.com beat, and this just came across my desk:

Bob Elliot of the Toronto Sun reports that the Red Sox offered the Blue Jays six pitchers for Roy Halladay at the trading deadline. The names: Daniel Bard, Michael Bowden, Clay Buchholz, Felix Doubront, Nick Hagadone and Justin Masterson. That’s quite an impressive array of names, and it’s shocking Toronto didn’t snap it up. The scout that revealed this deal said the Jays had difficulty projecting Masterson’s future, and — probably most important — “the Jays were worried about Halladay beating them next year.” Obviously, Masterson and Hagadone are no longer with the Sox club so it’s unlikely a deal could be reached in the offseason. If it’s going to take more than that package to land Halladay, GM J.P. Ricciardi won’t find any takers.

What do you think? Are we lucky the Jays turned the deal down?