The AL East SlugFest, More on Gonzalez

Haymakers and The Vazquez Deal

Punch. Then counter punch.

The Sox signed John Lackey. Then the Yankees added Javier Vazquez. While not a knockout punch by any means, the move is a big blow by any measure – maybe a rib-buster or a deep cut above the left eye.

Still, the move looks like another excellent trade by Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman, who always seems to acquire stud players at excellent prices.

Vazquez looks to be no different, as the team ceded expendable pieces in Melky Cabrera, and minor leaguers Arodys Vizcaino and Mike Dunn. Marc Hulet made a great breakdown of the prospects in his profile of the Yanks’ top 10 prospects, with Vizcaino 4^th and Dunn 6^th. Vizcaino, 19, has quite the ceiling, as evidenced by his 11.06 K/9 in 2009 at low-A. His fastball ranges from the high 80s to mid 90s…

Evaluating the 2010 team so far

After adding John Lackey and Mike Cameron the team is starting to take shape. Although most think we need to make another move it’s possible we enter 2010 as we stand now. That isn’t very likely if the Mike Lowell trade is completed, but to start I’m going to look at the roster without any third baseman.

*Here is the explanation of how I calculated the WAR values I will be using. If you want to skip this just know it’s an average of several projections. For those that are interested I used Bill James projection, Fangraphs new Fans Projection (where available) and CHONE projections. To calculate WAR for Bill James I used his batting runs above average and the CHONE defensive projection since Bill does not project defense. Fan projections already account for WAR and needed no calculation. CHONE is batting and defense above league average. To complete the calculation to WAR for Bill James and CHONE I used CHONE PA to calculate replacement level runs and positional adjustment. Unfortunately this double weights CHONE on PA and defense projections. Once I have calculated the three WAR values I sum the team totals and average them.

Better than 2009

Now that that is out of the way we should get an idea of what are good values. In 2009 the Red Sox had the third most runs scored and their batting runs above average totaled 98.8 which ranked second in the league. This includes the whole team and all season. The good news is that the projections so far are much better than that for our group of 8 (Remember no third basemen). Bill James projects a 133.8 runs above average and CHONE calls for 106.

John Lackey joins Boston in curious move

By all indications, the Red Sox will have John Lackey serving as their No. 3 starter this upcoming season. The right-hander inked a five-year, $85 million deal which is exactly market value for his services.

Lackey is a solid signing for the Red Sox, as long as they don’t attempt to stretch him into an ace. The 31-year old is in the mold of Josh Beckett, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis: hard-nosed, fiery people who want to be out there every day kicking butt and taking names.

The five years is a point of contention. Boston has always been steadfast in its refusal to commit extended years to a pitcher. This is Theo Epstein’s first five-year commitment to a free agent pitcher. Jon Lester was his first five-year pitcher, but of course, Lester is six years younger with three arbitration years factored into the contract — so really, only two free agent years were bought out.

That five-year commitment to Lackey scares me, especially when the final year will be when Lackey is 35 years old. Coupled with his injury red flags and contact numbers, and I can’t really figure out what Boston saw in Lackey. Does he have a good chance of repeating his 2009 numbers over the next five years? Yes. But there is an equal chance of something going horribly awry. It doesn’t seem characteristic of Theo to commit this risk to a pitcher. To a position player, sure. But he’s been very good on the pitching ledger, so he’s stuck his neck out a bit with this pact.

New Poll Question: Left Field Left-overs

If Boston waves Bay good-bye and Matt Holliday is out of reach, which of these established left-fielders would you like to see play the line at Fenway in 2010?

* Garret Anderson
* Marlon Byrd
* Fernando Tatis
* Randy Winn

New Poll Question: Most coveted star

Considering that it’s highly unlikely that the Red Sox could acquire both in a trade, who would you prefer to see don a Sox uniform come April?

* Adrian Gonzalez
* Felix Hernandez

Does Hoyer hiring help or hurt Adrian Gonzalez trade?

With now former assistant GM Jed Hoyer departing to become the head honcho in San Diego, how does this affect a potential acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez back in Boston?

I’ve heard more people than not say that it will only become easier. I’m here to burst your bubble and say it will be harder.

Whatever is gained from a working relationship between Hoyer and Epstein is lost in three major factors, which we’ll cover today.

The Science of Selling Felix, A-Gon Short

In our versions of an offseason blueprint the Red Sox could follow (1, 2, 3) one topic that came up fairly often was how realistic or unrealistic our proposed trade packages were for certain players. Let’s recap:

Mike Lowell, Casey Kotchman, Clay Buchholz and key minor league pieces (defined as anyone sans Kelly, numbering two) for Felix Hernandez.

Money comment: Getting King Felix would be nice, but you are crazy thinking Seattle would have any interest in picking up Lowell or Kotchman. Why would they pick up $16+ in salaries? Lowell is going nowhere unless we pay his salary, which is crazy. – MEe

Clay Buchholz, Lars Anderson, Manny Delcarmen, Michael Bowden, two “second-tier” prospects to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez.

Money comment: Delcarmen is a stiff. Bowden is a stiff. Anderson has done NOTHING in the minor leagues. Clay Buccholz has major league stuff but has yet to prove himself for an entire season. For this you’ll get one of the best young power hitters in the game? I think not!! - Nick

If our proposed deals are not up to snuff, that’s not good. Let’s try to figure out what a proposed deal could, should be.

Red Sox Offseason BluePrint v.3 : Gonzalez, Holliday, Harden, Sheets

With respect to both Evan and Mike’s blueprints and analysis preceding me, I chose to take a slightly different direction with the 2010 Red Sox.

I think Theo Epstein and company will be aggressive this off season. No matter what you heard at the end of the season in the “season wrap” press conference from Epstein, I think he’s learned from his mistake last hot stove in letting Mark Teixeira slip through their fingertips.

While I believe that Theo would rather spend his chips and time trying to pry a young, talented and under team control starter to slot in at the top of the rotation with Lester and Beckett (i.e. Felix Hernandez), I don’t believe that will be the route that the Red Sox take given the prohibitive ask that it would take to swing that deal.

Trade Clay Buchholz, Lars Anderson, Manny Delcarmen, and Michael Bowden to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez

Instead, despite reports that the San Diego Padres aren’t looking to shop their star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez this off season, I think that is exactly where Theo and team will level their gaze, rebuilding their team around a player with nearly all the strengths that they missed out on with Mark Teixeira at a fraction the cost.

Tweets on the Red Sox’s 25-man roster

In a homage to Twitter, the new social media application that is changing how news is delivered (in the same vein how blogs changed everything) I bring to you a summary of each Red Sox player on the 25-man roster in 140 characters or less (the maximum number of characters you can enter on Twitter).

Have Twitter? Follow me. Tim’s on too. Oh, and Fire Brand has one as well. You’ll notice that had you followed Fire Brand, you would have gotten all these tweets last night.

Trade watch: Theo ‘burning midnight oil’

All the recent trade rumors around the Sox have your head spinning? No worries. Evan summarizes everything you need to know leading up to the trade deadline and handicaps the Sox’s chances.