AL West Sleepers

Buried in the West are many talented breakout candidates. Some of the more interesting in the league, many have been relegated to former prospect status, while others are just building a name for themselves.

Anaheim Angels of California

This team is a bit difficult to pinpoint as most of the players are already somewhat established. Though Joel Pineiro could fit in simply because he is, potentially, a one-year wonder, he’s still enough of a credible asset to disqualify himself as a sleeper. There are a couple, however, that deserve some serious notice.

3B Brandon Wood: Wood is probably best known for the annual merry-go-round he and the Angels play on – sending the prospect up, down, and around through the organization – never letting him stay in one place. Though he’s done precious little at the major league level to warrant a 25-man roster spot – or starting gig, no less – he’s been so good in the upper minors for so long that at some point you just have to let the guy get his hacks in…

Evan Brunell’s 2010 MLB Predictions: Does Boston win it?

As the advent of spring training games are upon us, I thought I’d kick off everyone’s favorite little exercise by providing my own personal predictions as to how I think the season will shake out. Now, before I do so, a word of caution: predictions can change daily based on events. Heck, my predictions change multiple times a week. But I’ve gotta make predictions at some point, right? Point being, I might disagree with my own predictions a week from now. Most of the time, these kind of predictions are an exercise in fallacy, but it’s not going to stop me from trying.

I don’t know why I made things harder on myself, but I set out to present an exact record. This means I had to go into a spreadsheet and make sure all the wins and losses totaled the correct amount of games while also balancing out to a .500 record. Took me a while, but dadgum it, I did it. One thing I did not control for was the unbalanced schedule (in a total record sense), but I already strained my tenuous math skills, so I wasn’t about to complicate it further.

Click “read more” or the headline to find my predictions.

Recapping Kotchman, Chapman in Cincinnati

Kotchman to Seattle

With all the positive moves the Red Sox have made this off-season, it’s a bit curious that Casey Kotchman became the first player expendable in the wake of the Adrian Beltre acquisition.

Following the trade, the party line claimed that Kotchman became obsolete – and expendable – with four starting-caliber corner infielders on the roster. While it is certainly true that the team does not need four such players to man two positions (Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Beltre, Mike Lowell, Kotchman), it seems as if the team has forgotten that they have been aggressively shopping Mike Lowell since November.

Following a trade of Mike Lowell – whose occurrence is a near certainty – the team is likely to be without a quality reserve corner infielder. Sure, Jed Lowrie and Bill Hall will be able to man the position in the event of injury and off-days, but what kind of upgrade do they provide over Kotchman?

In the event of a significant injury to Beltre or Youkilis, both Hall and Lowrie would be completely miscast as a full-time option. In addition, with Beltre missing 51 games this past season, entrusting the insurance policy to either option is a very dangerous proposition…

Lars Anderson looking like a younger Casey Kotchman

I think Casey Kotchman should be a warning to any long term success we might expect from Lars Anderson. This is also just a discussion of their offense as Kotchman has a much better glove. Kotchman was a much higher draftpick going in the first round of the 2001 draft while Anderson was an 18th round pick. So what is it that makes these two have anything in common?

First is that they have excellent plate discipline. Even at the minor league level they both have between a half a walk to a full walk for every strikeout. Anderson strikes out quite a bit more, but he walks a lot more too. All things being equal Kotchman would probably have a better average, but their OBP would be close.

An interesting comparison is how Baseball America viewed them. In 2005 BA ranked Kotchman #6 and had this quote from a scout. “He’s such a good hitter and he’s still developing. I think he’ll easily hit 30-plus homers in the majors. As we have seen that power never came and now Kotchman is more of a 10-15 homer guy at a power position.

Red Sox deal Casey Kotchman for Bill Hall

It’s been spread on Twitter that Casey Kotchman is headed to the Mariners for Bill Hall, a minor league PTBNL and cash considerations. When I first saw this deal I was curious to what this accomplished, but after looking at the numbers this makes a bit more sense. The cash is likely the money that Seattle got from the Brewers when they got Hall to cover some of his 2010 contract. So they are probably not adding contract and could be dropping some.

Is Casey Kotchman our best bet at first?

As comprised today, Boston has two choices when it comes to filling it’s first/third hole: Slide Youkilis over to third and commit to Nick Johnson as first-baseman… or leave the window open for Beltre with the expectation that Kotchman ends up at first.

The question is:

Is Nick Johnson appreciably better than Casey Kotchman based on actual value?

To me, it’s a rather simple answer: No. Casey Kotchman is the better option than Nick Johnson.

John Lackey joins Boston in curious move

By all indications, the Red Sox will have John Lackey serving as their No. 3 starter this upcoming season. The right-hander inked a five-year, $85 million deal which is exactly market value for his services.

Lackey is a solid signing for the Red Sox, as long as they don’t attempt to stretch him into an ace. The 31-year old is in the mold of Josh Beckett, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis: hard-nosed, fiery people who want to be out there every day kicking butt and taking names.

The five years is a point of contention. Boston has always been steadfast in its refusal to commit extended years to a pitcher. This is Theo Epstein’s first five-year commitment to a free agent pitcher. Jon Lester was his first five-year pitcher, but of course, Lester is six years younger with three arbitration years factored into the contract — so really, only two free agent years were bought out.

That five-year commitment to Lackey scares me, especially when the final year will be when Lackey is 35 years old. Coupled with his injury red flags and contact numbers, and I can’t really figure out what Boston saw in Lackey. Does he have a good chance of repeating his 2009 numbers over the next five years? Yes. But there is an equal chance of something going horribly awry. It doesn’t seem characteristic of Theo to commit this risk to a pitcher. To a position player, sure. But he’s been very good on the pitching ledger, so he’s stuck his neck out a bit with this pact.

Nightengale: Beltre to Sox a Possibility

According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, a Sox acquisition of Adrian Beltre is becoming a real possibility. As per Nightengale’s Twitter account,

“It wouldn’t be surprising if Beltre falls into the Red Sox lap if he doesn’t accept arbitration from the Mariners.”

The move would be predicated by Beltre declining arbitration, which SI’s Jon Heyman reports as a growing likelihood. Beltre, 30, qualified as a Type B free agent this offseason, so he would not cost the Sox a draft pick.

Beltre battled injuries this past season, batting .265/.304/.379 with only 8 home runs in 449 at-bats. Beltre remains an elite fielding third baseman, however, as he posted a 14.3 UZR at the hot corner in 2009.

Should Beltre regain his hitting prowess from previous seasons, he could present a nice upgrade over a declining Mike Lowell…

Will the Sox Acquire Adrian Beltre to Replace Lowell?

As the hot stove whisperings grow louder, the eyes of the Boston powers have shifted to Mike Lowell. Rumors have been building in strength over the last few weeks surrounding the future of the third baseman within the Sox’ organization.

Growing in popularity among the potential scenarios involving Lowell is the signing free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre, which would inevitably precede a trade of Lowell. According to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com, the Red Sox have been looking to trade Lowell with the condition of paying for $6 million of his $12 million salary in 2010.

Replacing Mike Lowell with Adrian Beltre is certainly an interesting avenue for the home town team. However, such a move itself has a number of roadblocks that could preclude, including teams picking up Lowell’s $6 million and the likelihood of aggressive suitors for Beltre’s services. In addition, such a move would prevent the team from acquiring Adrian Gonzalez, who is coveted by the current front office.

New Poll Question: Left Field Left-overs

If Boston waves Bay good-bye and Matt Holliday is out of reach, which of these established left-fielders would you like to see play the line at Fenway in 2010?

* Garret Anderson
* Marlon Byrd
* Fernando Tatis
* Randy Winn