That Damn AL East Superiority Complex

I’ve had it up to here with this “he can’t hit in the AL East” crap! Even a few select members of the Red Sox brass believe in this credo – and I feel downright shame that we would support Jason Bay over Matt Holliday merely for the fact that Bay has hit in the division whereas Holliday has never had the chance.

Bogus. I ain’t buyin’ it.

Would we be saying this about Jason Bay if he came over from a blistering stint in St. Louis? Remember, he hadn’t hit anywhere other than PITTSBURGH before Boston. Needless to say, it’s become one of my pet peeves – and I don’t even like saying the word “pet peeve”. I save that for only the most appropriate of circumstances.

But, really, I’ve had it up to here. So I decided to look into the numbers and put my money where my mouth is.

First off, it goes without saying that anyone who hits in a weak division, i.e. anywhere in the NL, or some other division where half the team’s players wear a dunce cap onto the field instead of a ball cap – has an easier time succeeding because of the poor competition. No doubt, it’s easier to hit in the AL Central than the AL East. True. No argument there.

What is ridiculous is the amount of skepticism weighed against an MLB player by AL East teams because of some feelings of ultimate superiority. Hubris. That’s all it is – and it’s never been worth anything more than a lot of trouble.

Arbitration and it’s impact on the Red Sox

The arbitration tender deadline has come and gone, and unsurprisingly, many players were not tendered arbitration contracts they had the right to accept or reject.

Also unsurprisingly, Boston offered arbitration to its two eligible players: Jason Bay and Billy Wagner. Let’s run through the implications for offering arbitration to the two, and then take a look at players who’s possible Boston future was impacted by their club’s decision.

Red Sox Offseason BluePrint v.3 : Gonzalez, Holliday, Harden, Sheets

With respect to both Evan and Mike’s blueprints and analysis preceding me, I chose to take a slightly different direction with the 2010 Red Sox.

I think Theo Epstein and company will be aggressive this off season. No matter what you heard at the end of the season in the “season wrap” press conference from Epstein, I think he’s learned from his mistake last hot stove in letting Mark Teixeira slip through their fingertips.

While I believe that Theo would rather spend his chips and time trying to pry a young, talented and under team control starter to slot in at the top of the rotation with Lester and Beckett (i.e. Felix Hernandez), I don’t believe that will be the route that the Red Sox take given the prohibitive ask that it would take to swing that deal.

Trade Clay Buchholz, Lars Anderson, Manny Delcarmen, and Michael Bowden to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez

Instead, despite reports that the San Diego Padres aren’t looking to shop their star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez this off season, I think that is exactly where Theo and team will level their gaze, rebuilding their team around a player with nearly all the strengths that they missed out on with Mark Teixeira at a fraction the cost.

Red Sox Offseason BluePrint v.2 : Holliday, Harden, Scutaro

Like most teams, the Boston Red Sox offseason will be defined by the willingness of their owner to open his wallet.

Fortunately for Sox fans nationwide, Uncle John certainly has some deep pockets. However, the amount he is willing to spend will have a lot to say about the direction that this team will be headed.

The prudent move by the Red Sox will be to look for incremental gains in what is partly a transitional year, while also being a year of opportunity. The club has nearly its entire 2009 starting lineup under contract, including its entire starting staff and at least seven of nine position players. For a team that won 95 games last season, that’s a recipe for success. Still, the American League gets more competitive every year, as the AL West, the Yankees, and our little brother Rays make it harder and harder to buy the Wild Card.

Are we better off letting Jason Bay walk?

I had been thinking about this, and Evan mentioned it as well. But would the Red Sox be better off letting Jason Bay walk? Would they be better off taking the draft picks, finding a one-year stopgap. And hopefully letting Josh Reddick take over the position, at a very cheap price, and under club control for a while?

Look, we all know there is risk in expecting young players to contribute before they might be ready. Clay Buchholz was supposed to be the guy in 2008, supposed to be that ace. But he wasn’t, and still isn’t–although improved. Simply put, we don’t know how good Josh Reddick will be. We expect big things, or good things, but we don’t know. So putting faith in prospects does have its risks.

However, signing veterans to long term contracts also has risks. Jason Bay is not an up-the-middle defender. He is not 26–although not old by any means either. And he is a sub-par defender according to any defensive metric that matters. As he may not be atrocious in left, but he is far from good. And corner outfielders do impact a game much less than the premium positions do, at least in terms of run prevention.

15 bats the Red Sox could trade for — Pt. 1

On the heels of the Sox’s fourth disappointing offensive game in a row, it’s becoming abundantly clear that despite the team’s top five offense, it’s a top five incapable of sustaining any sort of playoff-caliber offense.

With that in mind, I have compiled a list of the 15 bats the Red Sox may have interest in. As the trading deadline approaches, I am keen to see if Theo has the “killer instinct” in him to make a strong move instead of holding onto his prospects with an iron fist.

With Jason Bay a free agent and his agent seeking a Mark Teixeira-type deal, is the time now to get a bat for now and the future? Here are some names that could don Sox uniforms sooner rather than later — you’ll see eight names in this article (in alphabetical order). On Friday, the final seven will follow, plus a summary of what the best fits seem to be.

Bay or Holliday?; buy HEATER magazine!

Tyler Hissey breaks down the careers of Jason Bay and Matt Holiday and wonders who’s the better value.

American League West Preview…And the rest of the remaining divisions too.

The Angels do not get on base much, and they haven’t hit for all that much power of late. I am a stat-guy. So I believe that an offense needs to do these things to score enough runs. There is only so much that can happen as a result of “hit and runs” and taking the extra base. Now, taking the extra base is great, and often overlooked–as is baserunning in general. But a team must get on base enough, in order to score enough.

The Abreu acquisition was great. For that amount of money, the team put aside their philosophy of having only players who can play defense, and sacrificed “it” for a little offense. There is no risk in signing Abreu, and he should still hit for average, get on base, and flash enough power to make him a quality all-around player.

Possible in-season trade targets for BoSox

One reason why many clubs are shying away from doling out big-money free agent extensions (besides the economy, of course) is the potential to land gamechanging hitter at more favorable prices in-season from teams that experience a budget crunch. The Milwaukee Brewers are doing this; so are the Red Sox.

Let’s take a look at what players could become available to the Sox as the season goes on…

Morning Cup o’ Rumors: MLB; Sox needs

Let’s take a whirl throughout the rumors in baseball and see what’s going on…

In Milwaukee, Doug Melvin picked up Mike Cameron’s option, but the Yankees have now come calling — presumably dangling Melky Cabrera and Ian Kennedy. With Alex Rodriguez being solicited for advice on Cameron and rumblings that the Yankees might sign second baseman Orlando Hudson and move him to centerfield, you can expect to see a new centerfielder roaming the new Yankee Stadium next year.

A back of the rotation starter is being looked at so Clay Buchholz isn’t handed the job in spring training. Paul Byrd could return.