Is Tampa Bay pitching overrated?

While Tampa Bay has had plenty of named talent over the last few years from Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza and then David Price came along. This along with a top offense and elite talent has led to their recent success in the AL East. Perhaps overvalued is a bit harsh, but they have several pitching changes and again compared to their peers in the division have some flaws.

Departing this year will be the presence of Kazmir at the top of the rotation, but that shouldn’t be a bad thing. His walk rate was always high and with the drop in velocity it’s likely the drop in strikeouts is going to stick around. He is surely not the ace of seasons before.

That leaves James Shields as the team ace and that is a good start. He was the ninth most valuable pitcher in the AL last year based on pitching runs above replacement. There were some cracks in his season though as his walk rate climbed, but not an extreme amount and should regress in 2010.

Evan Brunell’s 2010 MLB Predictions: Does Boston win it?

As the advent of spring training games are upon us, I thought I’d kick off everyone’s favorite little exercise by providing my own personal predictions as to how I think the season will shake out. Now, before I do so, a word of caution: predictions can change daily based on events. Heck, my predictions change multiple times a week. But I’ve gotta make predictions at some point, right? Point being, I might disagree with my own predictions a week from now. Most of the time, these kind of predictions are an exercise in fallacy, but it’s not going to stop me from trying.

I don’t know why I made things harder on myself, but I set out to present an exact record. This means I had to go into a spreadsheet and make sure all the wins and losses totaled the correct amount of games while also balancing out to a .500 record. Took me a while, but dadgum it, I did it. One thing I did not control for was the unbalanced schedule (in a total record sense), but I already strained my tenuous math skills, so I wasn’t about to complicate it further.

Click “read more” or the headline to find my predictions.

AL East Sleepers: Tampa Bay Devil Rays

For a team that, in any given year, is a collection of sleepers, this team has a number of high-upside contributors looking for either a rebound or breakout season. For the Rays to compete, they will need every player on the roster firing at all cylinders as the 2010 season is going to be – in all likelihood – the most competitive it has been since the 1990s.

Both the Red Sox and Yankees have restocked, the Rays have plugged up their disappointments and shored up their injuries, while the Orioles just got a serious infusion of young talent. The Blue Jays are still an NL West contender in any given year.

Snapshots Around the AL East

Though the Boston rumor mill may be idling at the moment, the rest of the AL East is gaining momentum. Here’s a summary of the recent rumors and additions from around the division – minus Curtis Granderson:

- According to MLBTradeRumors, the Yankees are planning on adding an additional starting pitcher “by the New Year.” Including the names tied to New York are Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez.

- Yankee’s centerfielders Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera have drawn some interest from the Cubs, says FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (about ¼ of the way down the page).

- The Yankees signed Nationals first baseman Nick Johnson to a reported one-year, $5.5 million deal. He would likely slide in as DH for New York. Though Johnson delivered little power last season for Washington, the Yankee’s right field stands and Johnson’s OBP should play well in the Bronx.

- The Orioles made some noise signing former Atlanta Braves reliever Mike Gonzalez to a two-year, $12 million deal. Gonzalez tore through the National League last season, striking out 90 in 74.1 innings on his way to a 2.42 ERA.

- Baltimore also added Garrett Atkins to a one-year deal for $4.5 million, with an $8.5 million club option for 2011. Atkins, who hit .226/.308/.342 over 354 at-bats last season, was linked to the Red Sox around the trade deadline.

- To finalize the Cleveland-Tampa Bay deal for Kelly Shoppach, the Indians received right-hander Mitch Talbot. Talbot threw 54.1 innings in AAA last season, totaling 40 strikeouts and 18 walks. Shoppach is a very interesting name for the Rays. An ex-Red Sox farmhand who appeared in nine games for Boston in 2005, the catcher hit .214/.335/.399 in 2009.

- Last week, the (Devil) Rays signed quad-A vets Ryan Shealy and Joe Dillon. Shealy, 30, finally produced at the major league level last season, slugging 7 home runs in 73 at-bats on his way to a .301/.354/.603 line. Dillon, 34, last had a productive season in 2007 at AAA, where he hit .317/.405/.610 with 20 home runs in 315 at-bats.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade bOF: Gabe Kapler

We’ve known that Alex Cora was the All-Aughts Team of the Decade backup infielder for a while now. But how about his counterpart in the outfield?

Well, that was a rather easy choice. What is a Red Sox team of the decade without the Hebrew Hammer, Gabe Kapler?

Kappy was purchased from the Rockies on June 28, 2003 and immediately made an impact on the club. On that day, Kapler went 4-5 with two doubles and a triple, driving in three. That wasn’t all, though. The next day, Kapler found himself in the lineup again and cranked out two home runs en route to three hits, three runs and four RBI. How about that for endearing yourself to fans?

Arbitration and it’s impact on the Red Sox

The arbitration tender deadline has come and gone, and unsurprisingly, many players were not tendered arbitration contracts they had the right to accept or reject.

Also unsurprisingly, Boston offered arbitration to its two eligible players: Jason Bay and Billy Wagner. Let’s run through the implications for offering arbitration to the two, and then take a look at players who’s possible Boston future was impacted by their club’s decision.

Financial Darwinism and the Economics of the AL East

The winter months always bring to light the advantages of the rich over the poor in the MLB. Without a doubt, there will, again, be a ring of publications bemoaning the struggles of low-market teams as they fight to compete in their league and division.

The American League East division is, in many ways, a microcosm of the entire major leagues – running the gamut of haves and have-nots as hypercompetitive juggernaughts stand side by side with the financial runts of the litter.

The state of hypercompetition in the AL East is shocking, if not alarming, in the way that it dominates competitive balance within the division. There is no escaping the trends. Any layperson can make the connection between finances and on-field success. The ‘08 Tampa Bay Devil Rays were the only team this decade to win the division other than Boston or New York. Before then, it was the Orioles in 1997. The Blue Jays were the only team of Tampa, Baltimore, and Toronto to even finish second in the past decade, in 2006.

Clearly, there is a competitive balance problem, which is not being helped by the MLB Commish’s office nor the MLBPA. And why not? Sport fans love dynasties and heels – the Red Sox and Yankees fulfill both of these needs – even if they only love to hate them. And the MLB and MLBPA love the ratings, which inflate the sport’s bottom line.

Reaching into the MailBag

This one courtesy of James, aka “jgr jgr”. James submitted a few puzzling questions, though this one made me think the most:

“Is there some hitter or pitcher out there under the radar that you think will be wearing a new Boston uniform in 2010?”

Well, going off this question, we’ll avoid talking about the likely suspects, including Bay, Holliday, Harden, or Scutaro who have all received a great deal of coverage not only on this site, but on Sox discussion boards ‘Nation’ wide (Yes, that was a pun. No, I won’t apologize.)

As for truly under the radar names, we must look really deep into the free agent roster, probably to the point of back-end bullpen types or bench hitters. While these moves may not be exciting to the average layman, these are the transactions that make championships. Depth and injury/slump insurance is perhaps one of the most underrated aspects of building a championship team. John Henry could grab any fan off the streets to build a team that could win 100 games if everything were guaranteed to go as planned. However, the true talent and meddle of a front office is tested by their contingency planning.

When a team has the type of financial resources the Sox have, it’s difficult to pick a truly “under the radar” name that will make an impact, as the players the team is likely to sign are usually the top free agents, too big to fly below the hard deck.

But there is still value to be that the rest of the baseball world is not discussing. Here’s a few that I think the Sox may settle on before the off-season ends:

Value at Starting Pitcher

Assuming that the Cubs re-sign Rich Harden, while Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard find other suitors, I would love to see the Sox sign Carl Pavano. Though his 5.10 ERA left much to be desired, Pavano actually turned in quite a season in 2009, with a 4.00 FIP ERA to go along with a 3.77 K:BB rate. While his 6.64 K/9 was merely average, a 1.76 BB/9 rate is more than adequate.

If you have burning questions about Red Sox Baseball, please submit your questions to Mike_Silver_FireBrandAL@yahoo.com. We’d love to hear what’s got you thinking!

Wakefield, Hoyer, and Squinting at Free Agents

Wake Undergoes Surgery

Tim Wakefield underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a herniated disk and loose bone fragment in his back. Wakefield is expected to pitch next year and should be ready for Spring Training. The 43 year-old vet was visually hampered last year, turning in a 4.58 ERA and 4.58 FIP despite his woeful last three starts (14 IP, 14 ER, 8 K, 12 BB).

Squinting at Free Agents

While we have gone at length discussing the top free agents and mapping out blueprints for the Sox’ offseason, there are a number of intriguing names on the market that are flying under the radar. Not all of them are the safest bets, with varying levels of performance or injury history, but they do have some sex appeal. Here are a few names to mull over. Special thanks to Eddie Bajek of MLB Trade Rumors.

OF Rick Ankiel: Ankiel came off a sub-par season in 2009, as his power was down, his walks were down, and his K’s were up en route to a .231/.285/.387 line.

6/13 G2: Evening delight

GAME NOTES: Jon Lester takes the mound. Let’s hope he starts off better than the canceled Friday affair, when he got the bases drunk in the first and only had one out before the torrential rain come. He’ll go against ‘Big Game James’ Shields, who is looking to move to .500 on the season, given his 9-10 record.