Evan Brunell’s 2010 MLB Predictions: Does Boston win it?

As the advent of spring training games are upon us, I thought I’d kick off everyone’s favorite little exercise by providing my own personal predictions as to how I think the season will shake out. Now, before I do so, a word of caution: predictions can change daily based on events. Heck, my predictions change multiple times a week. But I’ve gotta make predictions at some point, right? Point being, I might disagree with my own predictions a week from now. Most of the time, these kind of predictions are an exercise in fallacy, but it’s not going to stop me from trying.

I don’t know why I made things harder on myself, but I set out to present an exact record. This means I had to go into a spreadsheet and make sure all the wins and losses totaled the correct amount of games while also balancing out to a .500 record. Took me a while, but dadgum it, I did it. One thing I did not control for was the unbalanced schedule (in a total record sense), but I already strained my tenuous math skills, so I wasn’t about to complicate it further.

Click “read more” or the headline to find my predictions.

AL East Sleepers: Toronto Blue Jays

Well folks, this one’s about to get ugly. Not just this season, mind you, but for a few years – though, if Anthopoulos is as good as advertised, there might just be a way out of this mess. It’s too bad, really, as the makeup of this pitching staff makes this team one of the most interesting clubs in all of baseball. Too bad they exist in the gauntlet of the AL East.

There’s no mistaking it – Toronto is clearly the runt of the AL East litter for the forseeable future. While they have a few good full-timers and a number of interesting arms in the rotation, there’s just not a lot to build on here, barring the awakening of a number of sleepers on this team – a number of sleepers.

Either way, this team is in serious trouble for 2010 and beyond. Then again, when third place is all you can ever look forward to, does the disappointment really matter?

Financial Darwinism and the Economics of the AL East

The winter months always bring to light the advantages of the rich over the poor in the MLB. Without a doubt, there will, again, be a ring of publications bemoaning the struggles of low-market teams as they fight to compete in their league and division.

The American League East division is, in many ways, a microcosm of the entire major leagues – running the gamut of haves and have-nots as hypercompetitive juggernaughts stand side by side with the financial runts of the litter.

The state of hypercompetition in the AL East is shocking, if not alarming, in the way that it dominates competitive balance within the division. There is no escaping the trends. Any layperson can make the connection between finances and on-field success. The ‘08 Tampa Bay Devil Rays were the only team this decade to win the division other than Boston or New York. Before then, it was the Orioles in 1997. The Blue Jays were the only team of Tampa, Baltimore, and Toronto to even finish second in the past decade, in 2006.

Clearly, there is a competitive balance problem, which is not being helped by the MLB Commish’s office nor the MLBPA. And why not? Sport fans love dynasties and heels – the Red Sox and Yankees fulfill both of these needs – even if they only love to hate them. And the MLB and MLBPA love the ratings, which inflate the sport’s bottom line.

Gonzalez Signs With Toronto – Scutaro or Bust!!!

Though the Red Sox will be seeing plenty of Alex Gonzalez next season, it won’t be in a Red Sox uniform, as their ultimate fail-safe signed on with the Toronto Blue Jays yesterday. It’s never a good sign to see Plan B go off the market – or Plan C/D/F for that matter – as the Sox’ shortstop options are dwindling, meaning that they are all the more likely to go hard after Scutaro for a contract much more favorable to player than to team.

At the off-season’s beginning, the team could select from any of Hardy, Stephen Drew, Scutaro, or a Gonzalez-Lowrie timeshare. Now, with both J.J. Hardy and Gonzalez off the table and Arizona clinging hard to Drew, the Sox’ options have become alarmingly limited to a shot at a trade with Diamondbacks or duking it out with Scutaro’s many admirers.

Alex Gonzalez a Blue Jay

Alex Gonzalez has reportedly signed a one year contract worth $2.75 million with a $2.5 million club option for 2011. Gonzo came over from the Reds to reprise his role as Boston shortstop late last season and was simply excellent. The Sox declined his $6 million option and took the risk of letting the free agent market play out.

Barring a trade, it seems as if this limits Boston to Marco Scutaro, who is the outgoing Blue Jays shortstop. The signing on Toronto’s end would be rather smart in this regard as it would force their division rival to give up their first-round pick to the team that signed Gonzalez.

Alex Gonzalez is set free

The Red Sox chose to decline Alex Gonzalez’s $6 million option for 2010 today, putting the shortstop on the free agent market.

Quick recap: Gonzalez came to Boston post-Edgar Renteria and served ably, with sensational defense and a penchant for launching the occasional bomb but not much else. He left for a big-money contract in Cincinnati following the season, Julio Lugo taking his place.

That contract was marred by injuries, and he was shipped back to Boston in August at which time he exploded, again providing great defense while being above-average on offense. Part of me wonders if the team even would have made the playoffs without him.

Just because he’s set free now doesn’t mean he can’t return to Boston. However, Gonzo is not a $6 million player, so the decision was easy. Especially with the news that John Henry’s hedge fund business is suffering — no matter what the front office may say, it will absolutely impact the finances Boston has to work with.

If Gonzalez is willing to sign a two-year deal for $6 million, he’ll be back in Boston. The risk here is obviously opening the bidding up to 29 other teams, but at this point, I think Boston is willing to pay a shade above market value for him — just not way above.

Delaying a decision on Gonzalez also impacts Boston’s ability to continue shopping for a better or more long-term shortstop. The team was in the hunt for J.J. Hardy but lost out to the Twins earlier this week.

Jays talking Chris Snyder

Boston whiffed on J.J. Hardy. Might another whiff be coming?

The Arizona Diamondbacks are talking to the Toronto Blue Jays about catcher Chris Snyder. This is not the first time Snyder has come up at Fire Brand.

I was on shift at Rotoworld.com when the news broke, and here’s what I had to say:

Snyder hit .200/.333/.352 in a scant 165 at-bats during the season, losing his starting gig to Miguel Montero, and having the year marred by injuries. Due $11.25 million through 2011, the 28-year old has a reputation as a great defensive catcher who has a healthy rapport with pitchers. The Jays’ top prospect is widely considered to be catcher J.P. Arencibia, so you have to wonder what Toronto is thinking if the rumor is true.

Snyder isn’t a world beater, but he did hit .237/.348/.452. If Boston wants to upgrade offensively and defensively, one way might be to go after Snyder, put Victor Martinez at first and slide Kevin Youkilis over to third.

Red Sox Offseason BluePrint v.2 : Holliday, Harden, Scutaro

Like most teams, the Boston Red Sox offseason will be defined by the willingness of their owner to open his wallet.

Fortunately for Sox fans nationwide, Uncle John certainly has some deep pockets. However, the amount he is willing to spend will have a lot to say about the direction that this team will be headed.

The prudent move by the Red Sox will be to look for incremental gains in what is partly a transitional year, while also being a year of opportunity. The club has nearly its entire 2009 starting lineup under contract, including its entire starting staff and at least seven of nine position players. For a team that won 95 games last season, that’s a recipe for success. Still, the American League gets more competitive every year, as the AL West, the Yankees, and our little brother Rays make it harder and harder to buy the Wild Card.

Red Sox Offseason Blueprint v.1: Figgins, King Felix head to Boston

Today is the first in a three version series on an offseason blueprint the Red Sox should follow. What should their starting lineup and pitching staff look like entering the 2010 season?

I’ll take a look at one possible scenario while Mike and Tim follow up with their own in the next two days. Before I jump in, let me clarify something important: this is not necessarily a prediction of what the Sox will do, nor an endorsement of a particular path. All this is is simply food for thought. What possible scenarios could Boston pursue? Well, this particular one involves three major names being added to the team while losing Clay Buchholz.

Sox’ Expiring Contracts

As is customary at the conclusion of every MLB season, the Boston Red Sox are now the proud holders of a number of expiring contracts and team options.

For a team swept in the opening round of the playoffs, there is often the urge to spend big on the free agent market in an attempt to show the fans that they are committed to winning after a badly failed run.

However, this may not be the case with the 2010 Sox, as they are retaining most of their starting roster – many at excellent prices for their skill level (i.e. Lester for $3.75 million in 2010) – with significant questions at left field and shortstop only.

Now, with the end of the season upon us and free agency approaching, who will the Sox choose to keep around?