Last week, we put to a vote on Fire Brand who should win the honorable mention spot on the All-Aughts Team of the Decade. The winner of the poll, which looks to be Mike Lowell, will be officially added to the team later this week when we recap his accomplishments in Boston.

Today, I bring to you the dishonorable mention candidates. No Team of the Decade roster is complete without recognizing those that made waves in Boston for all the wrong reasons. Below are five candidates, none of which are Manny Ramirez given he’s already made the team. Please take your time and vote for the candidate you feel belongs on the roster, either at the end of this article or on the right sidebar, near the top. Ladies and gentlemen, it is my displeasure to present:

Carl Everett: Served 2000-2001 with Boston. A .281/.350/591 line over 1,010 at-bats makes him the most productive player on the list. Was acquired prior to the 2000 season for Adam Everett and cranked 34 home runs in 2000 before a forgettable 2001. Claim to sacrilege: Being a polarizing figure. Where to start? Head-butting home plate umpire Ron Kulpa after Kulpa asked Everett to move his back foot into the batter’s box (Everett used to stand as deep in the box as possible). Proclaiming that dinosaurs don’t exist, giving rise to the nickname “Jurassic Carl.” He also dubbed Boston Globe writer Dan Shaughnessy as the “Curly-Haired Boyfriend” of then-colleague Gordon Edes (now with ESPN Boston)

Shea Hillenbrand: Served 2001-2003 with Boston. .284/.317/.432 across 1,287 at-bats and a walk-off home run against Mariano Rivera . Claim to sacrilege: Hillenbrand was originally a feel-good story as he plied his trade at Double-A Trenton before nabbing a spot on the 2001 club at age 25 with average minor league credentials. With extensive work from then-manager Jimy Williams, Shea turned himself into a decent player. He was the starting third baseman on the 2002 All Star Game, but was a liability defensively and couldn’t take a pitch. When the Red Sox signed Bill Mueller for 2003 and put Hillenbrand in a time-share, he was not happy. He was then dealt to Arizona for reliever Byung-Hyun Kim and had a feud with GM Theo Epstein, calling him a derogatory name for homosexuals. He would go on to clash with Arizona and Toronto management and is out of baseball.

Byung-Hyun Kim: Served 2003-2004 with Boston. 3.72 ERA across eight starts and 48 relief appearances, saving 16 games. Claim to sacrilege: Kim was acquired for the aforementioned Hillenbrand and while he made a few starts, he was quickly moved to the bullpen to address Boston’s failed closer-by-committee experiment. He was a solid pitcher for the year and did not allow a run in September 2003. Injuries failed him as the posteason started, and was pulled with two outs after the ALDS Game 1 with the Athletics. During the Fenway introductions during Game 3, he was loudly booed and Kim then flipped the bird to the crowd. Injuries forced him off the ALCS roster. Injuries and ineffectiveness limited him to three starts in April of 2004 and a couple of relief innings in September before leaving Boston.

Jay Payton: Served 2005 with Boston. .263/.313/.429 in 133 at-bats. Claim to sacrilege: Payton came to Boston along with David Pauley, Ramon Vazquez and cash for Dave Roberts, as Roberts wanted more playing time. Payton felt similarly despite being an average hitter — the type of player that is a bench player on a good team, a starter on a bad team. Payton was not happy about his new role despite getting 133 at-bats through the first half which is a pretty good number for a bench player. He picked a fight with Terry Francona publicly on the bench. Payton maintained he had no issues with Francona and simply did it to force his way off the team. You can bet Manny took a lesson from that, as Payton was jettisoned during the All-Star Break to the A’s for reliever Chad Bradford.

Edgar Renteria: Served 2005 with Boston. .276/.335/.385 in 623 at-bats, 30 errors. Claim to sacrilege: Renteria was a big-ticket signing of four years and $40 million to replace Nomar Garciaparra and came to the team he made the final out against for the World Series. Renteria blamed Fenway Park for his errors even though half of his errors were in away games. He had some pop against lefties but overall was a flat-out awful hitter, although he did score 100 runs for the first time in his career, largely a product of the offense behind him. “Rent-a-Wreck” gets the nod here over Julio Lugo because Lugo lasted longer in a Sox uniform and at least won a ring, plus contributed some value the second half of 2007 and 2008.

Well, what are you waiting for? Voice your displeasure at these players in the poll (below or in the sidebar near the top) and let us know your vote in the comments!

Starting this season, the Orioles will be one of the more interesting teams in the division for what should be the better part of the decade. The top of the minors are awash with upper echelon pitching prospects (Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta) to go along with plenty of reinforcements in the low minors. The lineup card is stocked with building blocks that are either locked up long-term (Nick Markakis) or have just started their arbitration clock (Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold).

While the 2010 season may not be the year of the Oriole, it will be a significant landmark in the progress of the club. The team is not expected to “compete” in the classical sense, in that they will still likely finish either fourth or fifth behind the Sox, Rays, and Yanks. Yet, the team could, with a couple of breaks in the right direction, finish with a .500 record – the first time Baltimore has done so since 1997.

Now, on to the sleepers:

C Matt Wieters: This one should come as no surprise. Coming into 2009, Wieters was at the top of nearly every meaningful prospect list known to man. Switch-hitting catchers with the plate discipline, power, AND defensive capabilities of a Matt Wieters come around once in a generation. Accordingly, he was expected to perform much better than he ultimately did, .288/.340/.412. Even the perennially underwhelming and modest PECOTA projections pegged Wieters to hit 30 home runs.

Still, a .753 OPS for a rookie catcher is nothing to scoff at. In fact, if he weren’t so highly touted it would have been a successful season – just another example in how expectations shape our opinion of everything we with which we come into contact.

While most in Baltimore will sit back and expect Wieters to have his belated breakout season, he actually has a ways to go before claiming his throne to city. First off, the discerning eye he showed at the plate during his short minor league career (693 PAs between A+, AA, and AAA; 102 BBs v. 106 Ks) must return. A 1:3 BB:K ratio does not cut the mustard in the major leagues and will not allow him to achieve his potential.

Certainly, the 24.3 strikeout percentage is far too high, which will have to be remedied by improving his 77.5 contact percentage.

The good news for Baltimore is that Wieters plate discipline failings weren’t the product of any single, glaring weakness. It was more the combination of making poor, but not terrible, contact and swinging at pitcher’s pitches a little too often (25.4 percent O-Swing%). These can both be improved upon – and expect him to do it.

If these attributes fall in place, the only task left will be for Wieters to rediscover his power stroke. If he is more selective, comfortable, and confident at the plate, then the power will come. He has the strength and the swing to do it – his 27 HRs in 2008 were no fluke – so it is now a matter of time and patience before it comes to fruition. With just one year against his arbitration clock, time is certainly on his side. Whether it will be this season or next is the big question.

SP Brian Matusz: The first, and perhaps most talented, in Baltimore’s procession of pitching prospects, Matusz was very impressive in his 8 starts in 2009. Total 44.2 innings pitched, he struck out 38 big league hitters while walking just 14. His 4.63 ERA was a little worse than his numbers indicated – he finished with a 4.08 FIP – so he should rebound next season. Especially given his .343 BABIP, expect a quick improvement.

With a 78.2 contact percentage and a 54.3 zone percentage, Matusz has what it takes to be a control-oriented pitcher who also gets his share of Ks. As evidenced in ’09, he won’t walk many batters, though, he’ll have to try to get batters to chase a little more often if he wants to increase his K potential.

Even so, that is inconsequential compared to the need to fix his flyball tendencies. Certainly, there is a small-sample issue here, but allowing 47.5 percent of batted balls to be hit in the air is unacceptable. Home run tendencies have sunk better pitchers than Matusz, so he’ll have to prove that this is not the norm for him. Otherwise, he’ll struggle from year to year. This is item #1 on the laundry list. And, though it is rectifiable, it bears watching and will be one of the more important developments of any Baltimore prospect in 2010.

SP Chris Tillman: Though the case can be made to place every Baltimore pitching prospect on this list, we’ll hold it at just Mastusz and Tillman since they’re the two expected to break with the big club at the start of the season. Sure, Spring Training can change all that, but we’ll go with the information we have at hand.
Tillman’s 2009 was a season of ups and downs. Though he wowed in the minors, posting 99 Ks against 26 BBs in 96.2 AAA innings, he stumbled after his promotion. In 12 major league starts, he registered just a 5.40 K/9 rate while walking 3.32 per nine innings.

Though the walk rate is certainly acceptable, his 83.1 percent contact rate was certainly not what Baltimore was expecting from their prized arm. Certainly, his three-pitch mix of 92 mph fastball, curve and changeup has the stuff to miss bats, but its all meaningless until he actually performs.

In addition, he, like Matusz, will have to bring down his frightening fly ball tendencies – having allowed 45.2 percent fly balls in ‘09.

His development is just a bit behind Matusz’s, as he is the lesser pitcher at the moment with more kinks to work out.

Still, as both pitchers have yet to register a single season on their arbitration clock, Baltimore can count the two towards its rotation of the future.

Maybe the more prudent move would have been to keep Matusz, Tillman, and Wieters down on the farm for all of ’09. Though they were all ready individually, it doesn’t matter if their early arbitration years are being wasted on teams with no hope of contention. If they had all been kept in the minors for all of ’09, they could be left in AAA for a good part of ’10, delaying their arbitration clock by a full season. With the rest of the prospect field trying frantically to catch up, this would have gone a long way in assuring that they reach maturity at the same time. Remember, age and individually “readiness” is not what matters for prospects anymore. Bringing them all up at the same time so that the team can have its competitive window open for the longest possible time is the new paradigm.

So much for making the most of a good situation. At least these guys all have 5 years to go.

OF Felix Pie: This guy is quickly becoming one of the more underappreciated players in the big leagues. In a slightly different fashion than Wieters, Pie was able to drown out any good will in the Chicago organization due to failing his lofty expectations.

Now 25 (actually, his birthday was today), Pie is the happy owner of the “trash-heap prospect” status. With just over 2 years of major league service time, Baltimore has a quality centerfield option on its bench for the next four seasons. Blocked in left by the slugging Nolan Reimold, in right by Nick Markakis, and in center by

Adam Jones, Pie has nowhere to go but another organization. Perhaps that would be the best move for the club if it were a little further along in developing its pitchers, as selling Pie for a quality first baseman could actually make the team a legitimate sleeper if they had a proven rotation.

Even so, the best move at this point would be to test him in the field and at the plate as much as possible to see what they have. As such, they could deal him or Reimold at the beginning of 2011 – once they have a better sense of who can do what and how good their rotation is.

Remember, this is not the same Felix Pie who hit .215/.271/.333 in ’07 and .241/.312/.325 in ’08. His 9 home runs in ’09 allowed him jump his slugging percentage by an additional 100 points, while raising his batting average into the .260s.

Sure, the strikeouts will need to drop, but his 7 percent improvement in his contact percentage shows there is potential for a turnaround. And, a centerfielder who can top 20 bombs is a welcome asset on any team. Though he may never get on base enough to be a legitimate leadoff hitter, he doesn’t need to be. His overall game will make him an asset to any team.

On the to-do list for 2010 will be to maintain the gains he made in ’09 and to get a verdict on his true fielding abilities. If his game continues to mature, then Baltimore has a prime asset locked up through 2013. At that point, it will be up to them whether to keep Pie or Reimold when dealing for a first baseman.

SP Koji Uehara: Before I begin, I must admit that Uehara was one of my favorite pitchers in ’09 before he went down with hamstring issues. While his greatest problem is whether he can be counted on for 200 innings, he is quite the pitcher for what the Orioles have invested in him.

Signed for the 2010 season for just $5 million, if he can stay healthy he will be one of the MLB’s best bargains.

Though he doesn’t throw like a #3 starting pitcher with an 87 mph fastball, he certainly performs like one, tossing up a 3.56 FIP in ’09. With impeccable command (1.62 BB/9) and a surprisingly high K-rate for his lack of velocity (6.48 K/9), he would have the potential to be a legitimate #2 starter if it weren’t for his huge fly ball rates (52.6 FB% in ’09). Still, for what he costs, a league average pitcher is quite the return on investment.

If the Orioles could find some way to lock up Uehara to a multi-year deal past 2010, they would have the makings of a very talented, deep rotation for 2011 and beyond. Behind Uehara, the team could have any combination of Matusz, Tillman, Jake Arreita, Brandon Erbe, Zach Britton, Brad Bergesen, or even a resurgent David Hernandez.

Bergesen and Uehara are already league-average pitchers while Matusz gives the rotation some star-power. Arrieta, Tillman, Erbe, Britton, and Hernandez could all breakout or, at the very least, settle into back of the rotation starters. With almost too many starting pitching options, there is little standing in the way of this team having an above average rotation by 2011. There’s just too much talent here to fail. And, once the pieces are in place, there are plenty more that can be moved to the bullpen or traded for missing parts.

The outfield is set with Jones in center, Markakis in right, and Reimold/Pie in left. Reimold or Luke Scott could settle in at DH while either of the two or Pie could be traded for a first baseman.

Brian Roberts will handle the keystone through 2013, while Matt Wieters is the team’s catcher for the next five years. The only positions that are question marks are 1B, 3B and SS, though Josh Bell (AA) has his eye on 3B with an arrival at somepoint in 2010 a possibility.

That leaves 1B and SS as the only true “needs” of the organization. With the wealth of prospects elsewhere, expect them to make a swap in the near future to shore up these spots.

With the wealth of talent at the top of the minors, Baltimore certainly has its ticket stamped for sometime in the 2011 or 2012 seasons. With the bulk of their prospects expected to reach the major leagues within that timeframe, this team is primed to make a meteoric rise to the top – much like Tampa Bay did in ’08.

Exciting though it will be for many baseball fans to see a competitive Orioles team for the first time in over a decade, Boston needs to keep a watchful eye on their pesky division-mates. Though it is unlikely that they will be a playoff contender in 2010, they will spoil someone’s party in September and have a realistic shot at .500. Just don’t miss these guys when they reappear on radars come 2011 and beyond.

Mike Cameron Signs with the Sox

In honor of the Super Bo.. um, Big Game today (please don’t sue me, Roger Goodell!), Fire Brand is going Vegas today and presenting some prop bets for the upcoming season. Which ones would you be laying money on or avoiding?

10-1: Tim Wakefield opens the season in the starting rotation.
Wakefield made his feeling about deserving a spot in the rotation known recently, feeling he’s paid his dues over the past decade.

I don’t want to shortchange all the good things Tim has done for the team. He’s closed ballgames in 1999; won 16 games in 1999 during one of the finest seasons ever by a knuckleballer; was worth almost 4 WAR in 2003; constantly sacrificed chances to pad his stats by taking the bullet for the bullpen doing blowouts; he even carried the team through playoff extra innings in 2004 during a defining moment in Red Sox history.

Being able to be a super swingman preserved his value in Tim’s most successful seasons, and his pride or dues shouldn’t be a roadblock from Clay Buchholz’ development or Matsuzaka’s reclamation attempt.

7-2: Jon Lester starts the 2010 All Star Game
While I should have labelled this no less than a 9-5 bet, Joe Girardi will still be selecting and nominating the AL pitching squad.

2010 is Jon Lester’s prime-time, Tim Lincecum-level breakout year. With skyrocketing strikeout rates, improved control, and the development of elite secondary offerings, Lester will officially surpass Josh Beckett as the staff ace and the elite American League pitcher others will look up to. A rocky BABIP stained April 09 set him back one year in the public eye. Double or nothing for a Cy Young award as well!

8-1: Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron see some green in their OPS
With a high amount of left field flyouts in Safeco and his reputation for pulling the ball, Adrian Beltre rebounds this year, surpassing his basic offensive projections due to a favorable home park. While Fenway tends to supress homeruns slightly compared to the league average, it is the most favorable doubles park in the majors, turning those left field flies into wall-ball doubles. Cameron’s profile is similar and their offensive resurgance will help the team forget about Jason Bay.

6-1: The Red Sox pay at least $1M/HR at DH
Mike Lowell and David Ortiz split enough time at DH, as Lowell’s contract doesn’t get moved, and combine for 25 home runs. One of my colleagues at Rotosavants had a great article a few weeks back about a possible rebound for David Ortiz. Hopefully if Mike Lowell gets angry about playing time, it’s because the “2nd half David Ortiz” sticks around all year this year.

35-1: Mike Cameron’s centerfield, where fly balls go to die, helps bring UZR in focus throughout Red Sox Nation
Sorry. Couldn’t help it. (Although that line is only about the UZR part, not about how pleased we’ll all be with Cameron’s defense.)

Enjoy your Super Bowl everyone! Let’s Go Saints!

It has been leaked this week that Nomar Garciaparra will be announcing his retirement.  One of the more interesting names in Red Sox history with an origin from his fathers first name turned backwards and his last name is a combination of his parents last names.  He was not only an elite athlete, but with a 4.0 GPA in high school and majored in business management at Georgia Tech.  He was then drafted 12th overall by the Boston Red Sox in 1994 with the 12th overall pick.

After three years in the minors he made his first full season in 1997 with the Red Sox.  He led the league in AB, hits and triples.  He won the rookie of the year award and was voted 8th in the MVP award voting.  His season would only be a taste of what was to coma as over the next 6 seasons he would total 40.6 WAR according to Sean Smith’s WAR calculations.

This amazing 7 year span even includes his forgettable 2001 season including the Sports Illustrated cover, a wrist injury and only 21 games played.  That’s how great he really was and comparing him to Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez he was right in the middle with Rodriguez totaling 54 WAR in his first seven full years and Jeter with 35.1.

While in Boston he was often known for his first pitch swings and infield pop ups, but that never hurt his production.  He was not much for taking walks with a career BB% of 6.6%, but much like Dustin Pedroia he could hit most anything around the plate.  He only struck out 10% of the time on average.

As for his pop ups we don’t have pre-2002 numbers, but from 2002-2009 he averaged 12.5% infield fly balls.  That is putting him in the same area as Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas and Ryan Braun.  That and with a BABIP over .310 six out of the eight years in Boston he was never dragged down by it or unable to effectively get on base.

After 2003 with 40.6 WAR he was headed for the Hall of Fame and a fan favorite in Boston.  His seasons after the wrist injury were not as good, but he was still a top player with two 6.7 WAR seasons.  Then in 2004 in his 38 games with the Red Sox his defense had fallen to a -7.2 UZR and his offense wasn’t making up for it.

Then came the big deal bring Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz to the Red Sox and sending Garciaparra to the Chicago Cubs.  This drew a huge reaction from the fan base and quite a few thought this was a horrible move.  In the end Cabrera totaled 1.2 WAR in his time with the Red Sox and Garciaparra 1.3 in Chicago.

After that though Garciaparra was never the same player again.  He played one more season in Chicago and three seasons in Los Angeles.  This past season he also tried to come back with the Oakland A’s.  In the seasons from 2005 to 2009 he only totaled 1.7 WAR.  He went from Hall of Fame level shortstop to replacement level infielder.

Currently ranked 252 all time on the WAR list for Position Players he ranks right above Jim Rice.  As someone who was introduced to the Red Sox in 1997 I grew into a Red Sox fan with Pedro Martinez, Mo Vaughn and of course Nomar Garciaparra.  It was the right time for the Red Sox to move Garciaparra, but that didn’t make it any easier on the fans.  Now that his time is officially over we can finally look back over his career and remember the best moments.  What was your favorite Nomah!!! moment?

Clay Buchholz is poised to take another step forward this year as a full-time member of the Red Sox rotation. He spent much of the first half of 2009 dominating Triple-A competition, and finally got his shot when Tim Wakefield experienced injury problems most of the second half.

His “emergence” wasn’t much of a surprise despite his godawful 6.75 ERA in 15 starts and one relief appearance during 2008, as his Fielding Independent Pitching was 4.69 and xFIP (FIP with home runs normalized to park and league data) 4.28 over 76 innings. Those respective FIPs were 4.69 and 4.09, covering 92 innings in 2009 with a 4.21 ERA all told.

An aspect to Buchholz’s game I don’t think has been made enough of, however, is his inability to pitch against left-handers. Okay, inability is a bit strong, so let’s go clear deficiency compared to right-handed batters.

Over 99 minor league innings for the PawSox in 2009, Buchholz posted a 2.36 ERA (3.37 FIP), 89 strikeouts and 30 walks — strong numbers, indeed.

Split it out to left- and right-handed data, and we see that Triple-A right-handers batted a scant .154 against Buchholz, with a 2.44 FIP. In the majors, that batting average went up to .228. There is no major-league FIP data against right-handers currently, but Baseball-Reference.com marked Buchholz’s “tOPS+” against right-handers at 90. tOPS+, as defined by B-R, is the OPS split relative to the overall OPS, with the lower number favoring the pitcher. Buchholz’s overall OPS+ was 100, so there’s a significant indication that Buchholz is quite adept against righties.

How about lefties? At the big-league level, batters raked to a .284 clip and tOPS+ of (naturally) 110. In the minor leagues, the FIP was 4.63 and batting average of .227.

Below is the left/right data of Buchholz over the last five years, split out between minor leagues and major leagues (major league data only available from 2007-2009). The minor league numbers have FIP, while the majors has tOPS+. I’ve left out batting average to reduce numbers overload, as they’re backed up by FIP and tOPS+ anyways.

The data just got a lot more interesting. While we can see that Buchholz has clearly struggled against lefties for two years now, he used to exhibit a much smaller split. Not only that, but it seems as if his splits showed up once he hit the majors in 2007, as he shows a marked right/left disparity despite no major disparity in the minor leagues.

The timing here of the sudden change in ineffectiveness against lefties in 2008 could possibly be traced to an arm slot issue. Prior to 2008, the Red Sox felt that his arm slot was a bit too high, which left fastballs (and presumably other pitches) hit harder. There may be something to Buchholz’s ineffectiveness against lefties stemming from an arm slot further away from his ear (the “lower” or further away from an ear than an arm slot, the better for the opposite-handed batter). There’s simply not enough data to say one way or another, so let’s look at something else.

Let’s turn to his pitch offerings for a moment to try to decipher what the issue may be.

Your key: FB is fastball, SL is slider, CB is curveball, CH is changeup, XX is unknown pitch, PO is a pitchout. Nothing here stands out except major reliance on the change as his secondary pitch, and increased reliability on the curve. In terms of addressing performance against lefties, change-ups is the notable statistic here, which I’m about to explain.

In the 2010 Hardball Times Annual, there is an article by Dave Allen evaluating where pitches are predominantly thrown (”Where Was That Pitch?”), using pitch F/X. I’m about to delve into Buchholz’s pitch F/X and pitch data to try to find some sort of answer here using guidelines from Allen’s article plus Buchholz’s run values as shown here. (Briefly, to explain run values, think of a 95-mph fastball that was called for a strike. There is a small change — positive in the pitcher’s direction — of run expectancy. A positive change means the pitch was more effective at getting outs/strikes, while negative proves the batter took the pitch for a ride or a ball.)

(FT is a two-seamer, but there’s only four of that data over the entire 2009 season and Buchholz rarely uses it anymore. He has been known to throw a straight change as well as a circle change, which is tough to differentiate in pitch F/X.)

Firstly, using Allen’s information, we learn that across baseball change-ups are thrown most often in opposite-handed at-bats and have no platoon split, so we should consider most of Buchholz’s change-ups having been thrown to lefties. This is good, because we want to isolate why he’s bad against lefties and not righties. Also platoon-dependent are sliders, thrown mostly in same-handed at-bats and showing an extreme platoon split, meaning lefties would hammer these pitches if Buchholz threw them. Thus, sliders are avoided being thrown to left-handed batters.

Given that Buchholz’s slider run value in 2009 was 3.3 (and has had a positive value all three years) we can assume, then, that he does not throw sliders to left-handers. Let’s rule out sliders in trying to evaluate why Buchholz is lousy against lefties because they’re predominantly thrown to righties and sliders isn’t worthy of study in this article. Moving to change-ups, he had a -2.4 value this year but in years past, showed positive value (3.6, 2.0 in 2007 and 2008, respectively). Let’s table this for a moment.

Curveballs and fastballs do not have platoon splits and are thrown to any handedness of the batter with frequency. Using run values, Buchholz has minimally positive curve values in 2007 and 2009, and was a shade negative in 2008. The fastball was the major difference between his good years of 2007 and 2009 and bad year of 2008. His run value off fastballs in 2008 was an astounding -18.5, while the fastball was a negligible positive number in 2007 and 2009.

Now that we’ve gone through run values, let’s look at Buchholz’s pitch F/X locations of these pitches as modeled on the strike zone.

This is where Allen’s article comes in, where he mapped a pitch’s run value based on platoon splits (righty pitcher against righty hitter, etc.) and which location of a pitch was most effective. I’m about to compare Buchholz’s data to Allen’s. One caveat here is that Allen accounted for lefty/righty disparates, fusing the two sides of a plate into one. There is no such fusing in the image above. For example, a pitch inside to a left-handed batter as well as a right-handed one in Allen’s data would be in the same “location” allowing better data evaluation. In the image above, no such distinction has been made: an inside pitch to a lefty is on the left side of the image, while it’s on the right for a right-hander.

Let’s look at platoon-dependent data. Earlier in this article, it was said we should consider most of Buchholz’s change-ups as having been thrown to left-handers. We see that Buchholz predominantly threw the change-up from the middle of the plate to the inside (for a lefty) of the plate, sticking to the bottom of the strike zone, although there is an appreciable amount near the top. There are a smattering of pitches on the right side of the plate (which would be away from a lefty) but nothing major. He also pitches low and in to a right-handed batter. Again, most change-ups are thrown to opposite-handed batters so let’s assume those were thrown to lefties.

I’m going to use Allen’s run value data below, which has been scanned from the book (really, buy the book — it’s fantastic and is not a book geared to just statisticians, so don’t let that turn you off), to see if any of Buchholz’s change-ups are a red flag that lefty batters are jumping on.

The darker the circle, the lower the run value of the pitch. Here we see that change-ups that are outside and hitting the edge of the strike zone are the best change-ups a pitcher can throw. There doesn’t seem to be much difference between whether it’s inside and up or low, although there is a slight trend to it being low. Up and away, as well as low and away change-ups are good for the batter.  (Remember, Allen calibrated all data from right- and left-handed pitchers to be the same, so to look at this from a left-handed batter’s perspective, flip the graph over the y-axis.)

As Hans Landa in Inglorious Basterds would say, “That’s a BINGO!” While we have no hard data to look it up, what we’ve learned here so far about the change-up as it relates to Buchholz and left-handers is:

• Buchholz has struggled against left-handed batters recently.
• Of his repertoire, one specific pitch is thrown to opposite-handed batters with the most frequency.
• Change-ups are predominantly thrown to opposite-handed batters.
• Positive (good results for the pitcher) run values of change-ups trend towards those that are pitched away to a left-hander.
• Using the 2009 pitch F/X data, we see that most of Buchholz’s change-ups were inside to a left-hander. A fair amount were also over the heart of the plate (bad) or low and away (also bad).

Based on this visual data, it’s clear to me that Buchholz’s choices of location for the change-up is why he suffered a negative run value of the change in 2009, and it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest that this pitch is why he’s being tormented by lefties. How about his positive change-up values from 2007-2008? Let’s look at the two years of pitch data:

Just eyeballing this, it looks as if Buchholz stayed away from low and inside change-ups for the most part, which plays to left-handed batter’s strengths. He also threw more pitches that were away from the left-handed batter, which we’ve established from Allen’s graph helps a right-handed pitcher get left-handed batters out with change-ups. This seems to jive with previously-established data. (Interestingly enough, Buchholz said in a July 2007 interview that he thought his change-up was more effective against lefties… it seems as if that’s changed.)

Now, I want to caution that while we waded through a good amount of data and have learned more, there is more that can be done to evaluate Buchholz’s struggles against lefties. Some of my conclusions necessitated leaps of faith. The reasoning behind these leaps of faith is based in data, but they are leaps of faith regardless. Another caveat is that Buchholz uses the change so much in general, he may be the outlier in the data showing change-ups are predominantly thrown to lefties — but it wouldn’t shock me if lefties feasted on the change relative to Buchholz’s success against righties.

Are we closer to understanding why Buchholz struggles against lefties? I say we are. I say that pitching coach John Farrell and Buchholz should have a nice talk during spring training on where to throw change-ups to left-handed batters.

Joba Chamberlain finally got his full season to start and things didn’t turn out as the Yankees had hoped. His splits crashed and he wasn’t the same pitcher. At the same time Phil Hughes established himself in the bullpen after being unable to stay healthy in the starting role.

In the minors Chamberlain had an elite strikeout rate and continued to show that in the majors as a reliever.  Overall a pitcher will always have lower strikeout rate as a starter and you can see that in his career K/9 as a starter in the majors at 8.4, while 11.9 as a reliever.  That number is still a great number, but something happened this year.  His K/9 dropped to 7.61 and his walks rose as well.

This has to be partly due to his loss in velocity going from 97 in 2007 to 95 in 2008.  He then dropped to 92.5 this year as a full time starter.  There is obviously some velocity drop being a starter to preserve his arm.  I have the feeling this amount has some to do with his shoulder problems in 2008.

It’s tough to say he would return to a 95-97 mph reliever and dominate again in that role, but as a starter it might be time to expect more of a pitcher around the 4 ERA mark unlike the elite 3 many thought.

So why not just bring Hughes back to the rotation? He has the same drop in strikeouts as a starter, but is still holding a solid K/BB split in his time as a starter.  His numbers would be slightly down as a starter, but that sounds as good as a decreased Chamberlain.

His injury history has also been largely freak injuries.  Health is a skill though and being unable to have 100 IP in a season yet is a big concern for the Yankees.  Is there any less worry about his health though than Chamberlains shoulder?

Obviously the Yankees won’t make a decision like this until spring training and see who is healthy and more effective.  Looking at there projections though it looks like Hughes is the favorite to have success in the rotation.  Here is their CHONE projections.

The projections weight their health against them, but in 5 less starts Hughes would be about the same.  I think the better question right now is not who will make the better number five pitcher, but maybe who would be the better reliever and be more valuable in the pen.

If Chamberlain still has the 11 strikeout per nine inning pitcher in him he should return to the pen.  That is a big question with the health and a big chance with Hughes showing he can do it in 2009.  If it was up to me I would return Chamberlain to the pen as his ability to get hitters out was elite.

The wrong choice could be disastrous for the Yankees as trying to jerk them around during the season could be more troublesome for their health.  Once they make the choice they need to stick with it through the season.  While I would never wish ill off someones health I sure due hope the Yankees make the wrong choice.

Now that the All-Aughts Team of the Decade roster is complete, it’s time to fill out the two remaining spots available: honorable mention and dishonorable mention. We’re tackling the former today.

The Red Sox have players worthy of being immortalized on the Team of the Decade even though they didn’t crack the roster. Below are the five candidates eligible for honorable mention. Please take your time and vote for the candidate you feel belongs on the roster, either at the end of this article or on the right sidebar, near the top.

Dave Roberts: Served 2004 with Boston. 101 at-bats, .256/.330/.442 with 10 doubles and five stolen bases. Claim to fame: The stolen base in Game 4 of of the 2004 ALCS, enabling Boston to tie the game on Bill Mueller’s single up the middle. Boston eventually won the game and went on to win the World Series after being down three games to none in the ALCS to the New York Yankees, Boston’s hated rival. Considered the seminal moment of the playoffs, season, decade and perhaps Boston’s history as a whole. Also scored the tying run in Game 5, both after Kevin Millar worked walks. Is Evan’s vote of honorable mention and narrowly missed out on a Team of the Decade spot to Eric Hinske, by virtue of Hinske’s longer service to Boston and ability to play first and third base, a necessity on the team.

Mike Lowell: Served 2006-2009 with Boston. 2,026 at-bats, .295/.350/.479 with 75 home runs and 140 doubles. Claim to fame: The 2007 World Series MVP. Was acquired along with Josh Beckett in a salary dump of the purest sense, as many felt he was cooked after his awful 2005. Found the Green Monster to his liking, peppered it with doubles and was a linchpin of the ‘07 team, nabbing a career high 120 RBI and being named the 2008 Fire Brand of the Year.

Kevin Millar: Served 2003-2005 with Boston. 1,501 at-bats, .282/.362/.451 with 52 home runs and 220 RBI. Claim to fame: Being the architect of the clubhouse harmony from 2003-2004. Pioneered “Cowboy Up” and the “Rally Karaoke Guy,” as well as “El Bencho,” a term of derision for being a bench player during his 2004 late-season struggles, plus the addition of Doug Mientkiewicz. Was a major offensive force in 2003. Worked the two crucial walks during ALCS Game 4 and 5 in 2004 that led to Boston scoring the tying run late in the game, spurring a World Series win. Narrowly missed out on being the starting 1B on the All-Aughts team to Kevin Youkilis.

Keith Foulke: Served 2004-2006 with Boston. 178.1 innings, 3.73 ERA, 47 saves. Was inhuman down the postseason stretch in 2004, pitching a total of 14 innings, eight walks (six against the Yankees, when they pitched very cautiously), 19 strikeouts and just one earned run in garbage time during the World Series. Finished three ALCS games and all four World Series game. Was the pitcher on the mound when Boston exorcised it’s World Series drought in 2004. Widely believed that his postseason heroics were responsible for his subsequent physical breakdown and exit from baseball.

J.D. Drew: Served 2007-2009 with Boston. .276/.390/.485 with 54 HR, 196 RBI. Claim to fame: The $14 million Grand Slam in the bottom of the first of Game 6 of the 2007 ALCS, propelling Boston to a win and eventually a second World Series win. Receives a lot of flak for his attitude, but outproduced Kevin Millar over a similar three-year period despite consistently hitting lower in the order. Is the 2010 Fire Brand of the Year winner.

Alright ladies and gentlemen, time to vote! Who should be the honorable mention of the All-Aughts Team of the Decade? Vote below or in the sidebar on the right. Voting will run one week.

For a team that, in any given year, is a collection of sleepers, this team has a number of high-upside contributors looking for either a rebound or breakout season. For the Rays to compete, they will need every player on the roster firing at all cylinders as the 2010 season is going to be – in all likelihood – the most competitive it has been since the 1990s.

Both the Red Sox and Yankees have restocked, the Rays have plugged up their disappointments and shored up their injuries, while the Orioles just got a serious infusion of young talent. The Blue Jays are still an NL West contender in any given year.

CF BJ Upton

This one can be filed under the rebound category, as Upton has undergone a precipitous decline over the past three seasons. Dropping over two hundred points in the last two seasons, Upton’s OPS stood at just .686 last season, mainly due to a BABIP that has dropped 87 points since ’07.

There’s no easy fix for Upton. His BABIP should recover somewhat, if only for his speed, but it won’t ever again approach the .399 from three seasons ago. His power, well, that may depend on whether or not his shoulder injury has fully healed. Many blamed it for the drop in home runs he experienced between the 2007-2008 seasons, though, some doubt was cast during his explosive playoffs that year.

Despite these difficulties at the plate, Upton remains a plus centerfielder, with UZR ratings of 10.3 and 11.0 in the past two seasons – allowing him to post WAR ratings of 4.8 and 2.5 in ’08 and ’09, respectively.

An alarming drop in walks, a flatlining power outage, and an equalization of BABIP were the culprits of Upton’s season. Fortunately for Upton and Tampa, his outstanding defense and the nominal offensive requirements at centerfield meant that B.J. is still an asset at the 8 slot. Unfortunately for everyone else in the AL East, Upton, when fully healthy, has shown that he can be a dominating force at the plate.

If Tampa hopes to make a playoff run in 2010, they will need a considerably improved contribution from a fully rejuvenated B.J. Upton. While he will need to regain his power stroke, the fact that his down year was not accompanied by a collapse of his plate approach is a strong indicator that a rebound could be in store.

In fact, his plate approach was better in ’09 than in his breakout ‘07 season meaning that his maladies may not be as much of the mental variety as many have thought. If everything breaks right, we could be staring at a 5-6 win player in 2010.

Scared yet? You should be. Like the United States prior to the bombing of Pearl Harbor in 1941, Upton is a “Sleeping Giant.” All he needs is a spark.

OF Desmond Jennings

If you think that B.J. Upton is an electrifying player, then you’ll be astonished by what Jennings is capable of on the diamond.

Though his power output has lagged behind the development in the rest of his game, Jennings is able to combine game-breaking speed with one of the better plate approaches in the minors. What usually takes down raw-tools guys as they approach the majors is a lack of plate discipline, with their strikeout and walk rates diverging as they get into the upper minors.

Jennings seems to be the exception to this rule, as he posted an even 1:1 BB:K rate (67 walks versus 67 strikeouts) in 577 plate appearances between AA and AAA last year.

And then there’s that speed. Jennings torched the basepaths last season, stealing 52 bases while being caught just 7 times (88.1 percent success rate).

Though Jennings may not be a conventional dominating player due to his relative lack of power, his fielding ability and plate approach will make him a great player for years to come. It seems as if the D-Rays have another find in their long line of premium outfield prospects (Baldelli, Crawford, Upton, and Young) – and this one could be the best of them all.

If there’s one catch, it’s his injury history, as Jennings missed much of ’07 and ’08 to back and shoulder issues. If those have resolved themselves – which it seems they have – he’ll be up in Tampa Bay at some point this season.

Perhaps the biggest question mark for Jennings in 2010 is the projected position of 2B/SS/OF Ben Zobrist. If Zobrist begins the season in right field, like some expect, then Jennings is effectively blocked in all three outfield positions. If Zobrist starts at 2nd base instead, then the Gabe Kapler/Fernando Perez tandem shouldn’t be much of an obstacle. Then again, another poor season by Pat Burrell could solve everyone’s problems.

While it is usually the correct move to delay, as much as possible, the arbitration clock of prized prospects, this is one of those scenarios where a quick promotion would benefit everyone. With Zobrist at second (yes, Zobrist can field the position) and Jennings in right, the Rays could have one of the best starting nine’s in all of baseball.

With all the depth the Rays have, this move is not for the faint of heart. However, with the window rapidly closing on Tampa’s opportunities at contention, they have to throw everything and the kitchen sink on the field. In those terms, consider Jennings to be the entire kitchen.

SP Wade Davis

In Davis, the Rays have an adequate fifth starter. They’ll be expecting a whole lot more, however.

Davis has been a long time coming for Rays fans, having been drafted in the 3rd round of the 2004 June draft. After blowing away the competition in every stop since 2005, Davis made his hotly anticipated debut last season. He didn’t disappoint.

With a 8.92 K/9 and 3.22 BB/9 over the course of 36.1 innings, Davis ended the year with a 3.72 ERA and 2.90 FIP. Not too shabby. But, like anyone else, this was all accomplished in a small sample of innings – while a sophomore slump lurks.

Whether or not Davis falters in his second season will ultimately depend on the development of his secondary pitches, most notably his slider and changeup. All reports indicate that both his heater and curve are good-to-go, while his slider and change may need some work.

This development becomes all the more critical when taking into account the fact that Davis’ stellar debut came on the heels of a 74.2 percent usage of his fastball. Though the pitch is a good one, only Mike Pelfrey and Rick Porcello used the pitch more. While it is certainly possible to succeed as a predominantly one-pitch pitcher, it would behoove Davis to work on those secondary offerings. Otherwise, that nice 79.8 percent contact rate is sure to rise.

Even if Davis does not substantially improve his performance in 2010, the fact that he is slated in as Tampa’s 5th starter is indicative of the amount of upside the pitcher represents. When a player with the ceiling of a Wade Davis is taking over as the rotation’s weakest link, expect to have a great year.

DH Pat Burrell

The 2009 pairing of the Rays and Pat Burrell seemed about as perfect a match as Cinderella and Prince Charming. Unfortunately for Rays fans, it is just one in a thousand exhibits of why fairy tales just don’t exist. Burrell flat stunk last year, posting a career low .682 OPS, his lowest since 2003 and snapping a streak of four straight seasons over .875.

The strange thing was that Burrell really was the same player he’s always been – minus the power. He didn’t strike out much more than he did in any other season and walked slightly less than his career line. He swung more often at pitches outside the zone than he did before ’07 but it was not too much more than ’08.

What it came down to was a nagging neck injury that surfaced in May and dragged down his power numbers. Posting just a 9.8 HR/FB, his BABIP suffered as well, sitting at just .276 – down from his career line of .302.

All of this resulted in a -0.6 WAR from Burrell on the season, when he reasonably could have been expected to post a WAR between 2.0 and 3.0. If he can put the neck injuries behind him, there’s no reason to believe he can’t regain the power stroke. However, that may be a bigger “if” than anyone wants to believe – and Burrell, of anyone, could be in for a long season if he’s not healthy.

C Kelly Shoppach

Just an excellent acquisition by a front office that continues to impress. It’s certainly possible that the Indians got fleeced in this one, as Shoppach is a high-end offensive catcher in the Mike Napoli mold – a guy who can’t hit the broad side of a barn, but when he does, it goes a long way.

Even in a down year, when his BABIP dropped 73 points, Shoppach still posted an OPS of .734. Sure, Shoppach is probably not a good bet to continue posting BABIPs in the .350s, but his power alone makes him an offensive asset from the catcher’s position.

The move becomes all the more advantageous when taking into consideration how putrid incumbent backstop Dioner Navarro was last season. With an OPS of .583 on the year (albeit, on the heels of a .233 BABIP), Navarro posted a -0.1 WAR in 115 games. For a team with playoff aspirations – especially one in the AL East – this kind of production is absolutely intolerable.

What the Rays seem to understand that few teams don’t is the need for options. Perhaps the team’s greatest strength is its depth at every position on the diamond. After the acquisition of Shoppach, there is not a single position in their starting nine that does not have a starting-quality failsafe.

Underperforming position players will not derail this team as it did in 2009. If Upton has a down-year again, plug in Desmond Jennings and move Ben Zobrist from 2nd base to right. Replace Zobrist at second with Willy Aybar, backed up by Reid Brignac. If Navarro stumbles again, try Shoppach. Pat Burrell doesn’t hit in 2010? Shuffle the 100 other spare parts and put the weakest defender at DH.

Hell, they’ve even got Andy Sonnanstine if one of the starting five struggles.

Though this team may not be the class of the AL East by virtue of its starting 9 and 5, there is no other team in the division that will be able to respond to injuries the way this team can. With impact players that can switch positions at a moment’s notice and plenty of starting-quality depth on the bench, this team is far better equipped to cope with the injury bug when it hits – and it will hit.

If there’s one lynchpin on this squad that cannot go down, it has to be Ben Zobrist. Sure Evan Longoria has the better track record, but he doesn’t hold a candle to the versatility that Zobrist brings along. He can play any position on the field – other than catcher – and was among the best hitters in the league last season.

There’s no getting around it this year. 2010 is a three-horse race in the AL East and, as of now, there’s no telling who is the top dog.

The Red Sox had four managers from the span of 2000-2009. First up was Jimy Williams, captaining the ship from 1997 to August 16, 2001 when he was abruptly fired by GM Dan Duquette on my birthday. (I was so chagrined, I cut out pictures of Jimy from the newspaper and tacked them onto my bedroom door at my parents’ house. The pictures remain there to this day.) I’ve always felt Williams was and is an underrated manager — he got the most he could out of what amounted to a motley crew of players between the Sox and later the Astros (2002-2004).

Pitching coach Joe Kerrigan took over for the remainder of the year and the wheels fell off. The poisonous clubhouse atmosphere worsened, the Carl Everett era reached it’s nadir and Kerrigan himself proved to be awful at the helm.

2002 and 2003 saw the infamous Grady Little enter the premises. An old-school manager like Williams, Little was different in that… well, frankly, he was no good. Someone who advocated Tony Cloninger as his bench coach is someone that maybe shouldn’t be managing. He was good in his own right, helping reverse the cloud that permeated the clubhouse. Strategically, he was unable to manage a bullpen and largely let the inmates run the show. (With the personnel the Sox had on the club, that wasn’t a bad idea, but in general, it’s a bad trait.)

Of course, he botched ALCS Game 7 so dramatically in 2003 with Pedro Martinez that he was not asked back. That led to Terry Francona, who had a nasty experience managing the Phillies in their down years, but also had experience managing superstars, such as Michael Jordan in the White Sox’s farm system. (Here is an interview from 1994 while he was managing Jordan.) He had been training in Oakland, learning from Billy Beane and others. His reputation was one of a balanced background: using statistics to shape his decisions, but leaving plenty of room for the human element. (Similar to my own view.)

The going was a bit tough early on for Francona, although largely exacerbated by the awful choice of having Dale Sveum as the third-base coach. (Fire Brand archive: Sveuming into a Francoma, 8/05/04.) Where was Wavin’ Wendell when you needed him? Of course, he made far more right decisions than wrong, steering the club to a World Series title and should receive massive credit for his handling of the situation the Sox found themselves in during the playoffs, down three games to none in the best-of-seven ALCS.

Francona was at times — and still is, to this day — called Francoma for some questionable decisions he makes that is rooted in both the human element of the game and his ability to remain steady and even-keeled day in and day out, understanding the bigger picture. (Fire Brand archive: A Follow Up to Francona’s Managing Style, 8/27/05. )

Much like his patience with Kevin Millar in 2005 or Coco Crisp in 2007, those decisions pay off as the player either gets better or when push comes to shove, he’ll abandon all hope. (Fire Brand archive: Has Terry Francona Helped or Hurt The Red Sox? 8/21/05.) It’s why he stuck with Crisp in the regular season but switched over to Jacoby Ellsbury in the ‘07 playoffs. (Fire Brand archive: Tito pulls the trigger, 6/13/07.)

However, sometimes, his decisions are inexplicable or don’t make sense “when a victory is there for the taking with just a little deviation from the original blueprint” (quoted from a blog) and he ends up not making the move to win the game. (Fire Brand archive: Managerial mishap, 4/16/06.) This leads to some thinking Francona is not a good strategic manager and there is truth to that, but not as severely as some believe. (Fire Brand archive: Terry Francona’s not a good statistical manager — or is he? 3/31/08.)

It’s a niggling point about Francona, and I’m not sold that it’s necessarily a negative point because he alters his approach for the postseason, recognizing that the long haul is over and it’s time to manage each game to win. (Fire Brand archive: Tito hurting Sox’s chances at winning World Series, 10/17/07.)

That approach led to another World Series in 2007, navigating an infusion of young, new talent from the farm system. He especially nurtured a bond with Dustin Pedroia, and their good-natured bantering back and forth is reminiscent of father and son. I have heard multiple reports that the two play a daily game of cribbage during the year.

Francona’s leadership is of some notoriety, as he has been covered in several business magazines. He has a large sense of integrity, about keeping things behind closed doors and standing behind the players he is responsible for. Playing for Francona inspires confidence in a player. His impact on the team has been striking, especially when hearing stories about other managers and teams. (Fire Brand archive: For Better or Worse: Terry Francona, 9/29/09.)

One drawback to Francona is his failing health, as he has had numerous health scares with his leg, staph infections, coughing up blood… it’s been said that sometimes he has been close to death, a scary notion. Things seem to be improving on the health front, so hopefully he’s turned a corner. He also struggles with nicotine addition, trying to quit dip every year and to date, failing to do so. To his credit, each time he tries, he lasts longer before caving in.

Francona is now entering his seventh season as Sox skipper, making him the second-most tenured manager in Boston history behind Joe Cronin’s 13 seasons (1935-1947). (Fire Brand archive: Terry Francona: One of the greatest managers in the game, 1/21/08.) He does so with a three-year contract that began in 2009 along with 2012 and 2013 club options. Francona had technically become a free agent after 2008, but it was understood the two sides would come to an agreement, and they did just that, paying Francona a nice penny for his efforts — $12 million over the three years. (Fire Brand archive: Francona deserves a Torre-like contract, 2/20/08.)

Francona’s record as manager of the Red Sox is 565-407, finishing first once (2007), third once (2006) and second the remainder of the years, nabbing a wild card berth in each of those years.

Francona is already the second-longest tenured manager with two World Series rings to his credit, making him arguably the best manager Boston has had patrolling its benches. There is no better candidate to man the All-Aughts Team of the Decade.

This week the PECOTA projections were run through with depth charts and attempted to project final standings based on opening day expected rosters. Obviously trades, injuries and breakout/slumps will change these results, but so far they have the Red Sox at 95-67 finishing in second place.  Of course the big surprise is who is in first.  PECOTA projects Tampa Bay to finish at 96-66 winning the East with the Red Sox as the favorite for the wild card.

So where are the Yankees?  Third place with a record of 93-69 and out of the playoffs.  OK so 3 wins separating the three is not something to bet on, but confirms what we have said all along.  The Red Sox have changed their strengths, but maintained their ability to win 95 games and make the playoffs.

There isn’t much to say that one team won’t win 100 games or only 85, but the expectation that 2010 finishes in a close three team race seams like a strong possibility based on current roster construction.  A big factor in the Yankees drop to 93 wins has to be the move to replace Johnny Damon with Randy Winn and Brett Gardner.

The link is behind the pay site so I don’t want to reveal more information than I should, but one player projection that really should get people excited is Clay Buchholz.  Currently Bill James has been the most optomistic with him at 10 wins, 3.91 ERA, 161 IP and 155 strikeouts.  PECOTA is calling for 164 IP, 12 wins, 3.71 ERA and 141 strikeouts.

With Tim Wakefield beginning to rumble about taking a starting spot I can’t see a reason to remove Buchholz for him.  Unless Clay has a horrible spring training I can’t see why they would do this.  Little changes like this could effect our depth chart and how we would be projected to finish this year.

Eric Wilbur has a good post up on this discussing how many starters we needed in 2009 and how it’s highly likely that Wakefield will make significant contributions as a starter even if not on day one.  I like him much better as the number six pitcher and insurance than as the number 5 with no real safety pitcher except Junichi Tazawa who has not looked ready yet.  Another reason I am quite happy that Buchholz has not left Boston this offseason.