When looking at prospects there is a lot of information to sift through. While some is conflicting, a lot of it tells a story. When it comes to newly acquired reliever Chris Carpenter though, there seems to be a large discrepancy between what the scouts are saying, and what the numbers say.
His stuff based on scouting reports would have you believe he is the next Daniel Bard with a fastball that hits 100 mph and a slider that was labeled as “very good” and “highly effective” by The Scouting Book; even his change up was called “under appreciated” by them. This theme is pretty common although John Sickels points out that the sliders is “erratic”.
John’s projection of Carpenter consists of him being a middle of the pen reliever with some talk of having potential as a closer, but not in Boston. To be fair, Sickels rated him as a C+ prospect. That is a fair assessment, and John see him as more of a reserve or non star level player. The overall scouting positives sure make the addition of Carpenter look like a good move for the Red Sox, but what do the stats say so far?
In the minors, Carpenter has been all over the place with his control, especially at any level above high-A ball. In 2011, at Triple-A his BB/9 was 6.82 in over 30 innings, and then he moved up to the Cubs and had a BB/9 of 6.52.
In the majors, his slider showed quite a bit of problems looking at the Pitch F/x data. His slider was a ball 40 percent of the time and was a called strike only 10 percent. For a comparison, Bard threw his slider for a ball 36 percent and a called strike 24 percent. We all know Bard has some control issues of his own, so having a more erratic slider is troubling.
On top of the control issues, Carpenter is not the strikeout pitcher one would hope. While not a terrible pitcher his K/9 in Triple-A was 7.9 and 7.2 in a larger sample at Double-A. For a pitcher walking more than four hitters every nine innings he just won’t succeed in the long run.
Looking at the projections for 2012, it’s fair to say Carpenter will start 2012 in Triple-A where he’ll attempt to work on harnessing his control.
Projection K BB ERA WHIP OLIVER 32 23 5.05 1.56 ZiPs 59 53 5.11 1.68
At age 26, Carpenter doesn’t have a lot of time to develop, but has to show the ability to control his pitches. He also could return to his role as a starter when he joins the Red Sox. According to The Scouting Book, “When he dials it down to the 94mph range for longer outings, though, he gets additional movement and sink, contributing to a high ground ball rate that might be more beneficial”.
That doesn’t solve the slider problem, but could show an option the Front Office might be weighing with Carpenter. He would join a stable of potential starters if he does return to starting, but his potential may be best served there. With injuries sure to come around again this season, the Red Sox could very well need Carpenter before 2012 is over. If the scouts are correct on this one, and he figures it out this could be a great return. If the stats project him more accurately than the scouts, we might never see him in Boston.