AL West Sleepers

Buried in the West are many talented breakout candidates. Some of the more interesting in the league, many have been relegated to former prospect status, while others are just building a name for themselves.

Anaheim Angels of California

This team is a bit difficult to pinpoint as most of the players are already somewhat established. Though Joel Pineiro could fit in simply because he is, potentially, a one-year wonder, he’s still enough of a credible asset to disqualify himself as a sleeper. There are a couple, however, that deserve some serious notice.

3B Brandon Wood: Wood is probably best known for the annual merry-go-round he and the Angels play on – sending the prospect up, down, and around through the organization – never letting him stay in one place. Though he’s done precious little at the major league level to warrant a 25-man roster spot – or starting gig, no less – he’s been so good in the upper minors for so long that at some point you just have to let the guy get his hacks in…

AL East Sleepers: Boston Red Sox

As the hometown team boasts one of the strongest starting nine in the American League, it can be difficult to detect sleepers among the pack. Don’t be fooled, however. They are there and prepped to support an elite cast looking to avenge last season’s early playoff exit.

Though few of the positional starters offer much potential as true “sleepers”, considering the number of All-Stars and MVP candidates among them, the pitching staff contributes much of the excitement on this front. With youngsters and rebound contenders among the lot, an already superb rotation and bullpen could receive a few significant boosts from numerous sources.

SP Clay Buchholz

After the light came on last season, it never seemed to go out. Finally hitting his stride at the Major League level, he was able to lay fears about his potential to rest. Though not a groundbreaking season by any means, Buchholz’ performance went a long way toward stabilizing the ailing rotation during August and September.

Looking forward to 2010, Buchholz should comfortably take the place of the 5th starter – possibly 4th, depending upon the performance of Daisuke Matsuzaka – expectations he should have no problem fulfilling…

AL East Sleepers: New York Yankees

For a team that won the 2009 league championship while standing atop the AL East leaderboards for much of the past decade, the team would seem, at first glance, bereft of sleepers.

Not so, however, even for these ’09 defending champions. A favorite even at this early juncture in Spring Training, the club could get even better by the time the season rolls around.

SP/RP Phil Hughes

Hughes is – and for quite some time has been – one of the best young pitchers in affiliated baseball. It was not so long ago – three years to be exact – that Phil Hughes was the best pitching prospect in the game, edging out Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey for that honor.

Though hamstring injuries and bouts of wildness slowed down his progress during the ’07 and ’08 campaigns, Hughes came back with a vengeance last season, reminding all bystanders why he was once such a highly touted prospect.

Still just 23 years old, the Yankees owe it to Hughes and to themselves to give the hurler another shot at a full-time rotation gig. Worth 2.2 wins last season, that number could easily swell to four or five if he pitches up to his potential…

AL East Sleepers: Toronto Blue Jays

Well folks, this one’s about to get ugly. Not just this season, mind you, but for a few years – though, if Anthopoulos is as good as advertised, there might just be a way out of this mess. It’s too bad, really, as the makeup of this pitching staff makes this team one of the most interesting clubs in all of baseball. Too bad they exist in the gauntlet of the AL East.

There’s no mistaking it – Toronto is clearly the runt of the AL East litter for the forseeable future. While they have a few good full-timers and a number of interesting arms in the rotation, there’s just not a lot to build on here, barring the awakening of a number of sleepers on this team – a number of sleepers.

Either way, this team is in serious trouble for 2010 and beyond. Then again, when third place is all you can ever look forward to, does the disappointment really matter?

AL East Sleepers: Baltimore Orioles

Starting this season, the Orioles will be one of the more interesting teams in the division for what should be the better part of the decade. The top of the minors are awash with upper echelon pitching prospects (Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta) to go along with plenty of reinforcements in the low minors. The lineup card is stocked with building blocks that are either locked up long-term (Nick Markakis) or have just started their arbitration clock (Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold).

While the 2010 season may not be the year of the Oriole, it will be a significant landmark in the progress of the club. The team is not expected to “compete” in the classical sense, in that they will still likely finish either fourth or fifth behind the Sox, Rays, and Yanks. Yet, the team could, with a couple of breaks in the right direction, finish with a .500 record – the first time Baltimore has done so since 1997.

Now, on to the sleepers:

C Matt Wieters: This one should come as no surprise. Coming into 2009, Wieters was at the top of nearly every meaningful prospect list known to man. Switch-hitting catchers with the plate discipline, power, AND defensive capabilities of a Matt Wieters come around once in a generation. Accordingly, he was expected to perform much better than he ultimately did, .288/.340/.412. Even the perennially underwhelming and modest PECOTA projections pegged Wieters to hit 30 home runs…

AL East Sleepers: Tampa Bay Devil Rays

For a team that, in any given year, is a collection of sleepers, this team has a number of high-upside contributors looking for either a rebound or breakout season. For the Rays to compete, they will need every player on the roster firing at all cylinders as the 2010 season is going to be – in all likelihood – the most competitive it has been since the 1990s.

Both the Red Sox and Yankees have restocked, the Rays have plugged up their disappointments and shored up their injuries, while the Orioles just got a serious infusion of young talent. The Blue Jays are still an NL West contender in any given year.

Contingency Planning for an Ortiz on the Ropes

As Buster Olney stated in a recent piece, “the Red Sox may look to replace David Ortiz if he struggles again in the first half like he did last year.”

Certainly, the struggles of Big Papi have a lot to say about the success of the team. Like we profiled earlier, David Ortiz is undeniably on the downswing of his career. In what should be the last year of his contract, Ortiz will likely have difficulty living up to his $12.5 million price tag.

The plan outlined by Olney involves a specific scenario under which Ortiz repeats his 2009 first-half struggles, leading to a trade of Ortiz, acquiring a catcher and moving Victor Martinez to DH.

Quite the series of moves.

The first obstacle to any such move involves Ortiz underperforming to such a degree that he repeats his putrid April and May, in which he hit just one home run in 178 at-bats on his way to a .185/.289/.286 overall line…

Recapping Kotchman, Chapman in Cincinnati

Kotchman to Seattle

With all the positive moves the Red Sox have made this off-season, it’s a bit curious that Casey Kotchman became the first player expendable in the wake of the Adrian Beltre acquisition.

Following the trade, the party line claimed that Kotchman became obsolete – and expendable – with four starting-caliber corner infielders on the roster. While it is certainly true that the team does not need four such players to man two positions (Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Beltre, Mike Lowell, Kotchman), it seems as if the team has forgotten that they have been aggressively shopping Mike Lowell since November.

Following a trade of Mike Lowell – whose occurrence is a near certainty – the team is likely to be without a quality reserve corner infielder. Sure, Jed Lowrie and Bill Hall will be able to man the position in the event of injury and off-days, but what kind of upgrade do they provide over Kotchman?

In the event of a significant injury to Beltre or Youkilis, both Hall and Lowrie would be completely miscast as a full-time option. In addition, with Beltre missing 51 games this past season, entrusting the insurance policy to either option is a very dangerous proposition…

What to Do With David Ortiz

Ask anyone about the playoff prospects of the 2010 Red Sox and they are sure to tell you that a large part of them are riding on the bat of a resurgent David Ortiz.

Papi has been one of the biggest cogs in the Red Sox machine for the better part of the past decade. Pushing the team to the brink of a World Series appearance in 2003, he lit worlds on fire bringing the club to two world championships in 2004 and 2007.

Then 2008 struck. Downed by an injury to his left wrist, Papi missed 45 games in June and July recovering from his subsequent surgery. Since then, Ortiz hasn’t the same.

Wrist injuries are death on power hitters. They decrease bat control and bat speed – two of the most important components of power hitting.

But, the wrist is just one development in the evolution of David Ortiz as a hitter. He turned 34 this past November, showing signs of aging in his last few seasons. There were PED allegations. And, it wasn’t long before the injury that Ortiz was struggling at the plate, leading to suspicions that Ortiz has become somewhat of a second-half hitter.

Still, what seems to have happened to Ortiz is that his wrist has combined with some of the drawbacks of aging – suggesting that Ortiz’s bat speed has slowed…

The Boston Red Sox and What It Means to Spend Wisely

There is a difference between the Red Sox and nearly every other team in baseball – and it’s pretty obvious. How lucky are our home town fans, that our very own Boston squad has significantly more money to spend on players most other teams. Actually, all but one – but who’s counting. Too bad they’re in our division. But that’s alright, so long as we use our resources wisely.

So, what is using our resources wisely?

From the Red Sox’ perspective, it’s much different from most teams. Over the past five seasons, the team’s highest budget was $143 million, registered in 2007. We’ll save spectulating on this year’s budget, which will be quite high, as there could still be some maneuvering left to go, and the value of free agents and draft picks in this economy is yet to be determined. Therefore, we’ll treat 2007 as the team’s theoretical budget through which to speculate on how the team can formulate its spending practices.

Citing the research of analyst Keith Woolner, a theoretical replacement level team would win approximately 44 games. Putting this in perspective, this standard of futility is comparable to the some worst teams of all time, including the 2003 Detroit Tigers (43-119), the 1962 Mets (40-120), and 1952 Pittsburgh Pirates (42-112).

After seeing this, two thoughts come to mind. One, wow, how far have the Mets come since that
disturbingly dreadful inaugural season 47 years ago. The other, what in the hell happened to the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, who found a way to produce a 20-134 record (.130 win percentage) and be doomed to the annals of worst team in MLB history. Ouch. According to the all-knowing Wikipedia, only 3,179 fans attended the team’s first 16 home games…