Yesterday, Andrew opened the topic regarding the bottom of the Red Sox rotation. While Curt Schilling (8-2) and Josh Beckett (8-1) have racked up quality starts at the front, the other half has been rather bleak. Tim Wakefield pitched brilliantly against Tampa on Sunday, and while I do have the utmost confidence in Wakefield to stabilize the middle of the rotation, he seems more suited as a #4 starter than a #3. That?s where I view Tim Wakefield in a rotation of a team contending for the World Series. Matt Clement is continuing to disappoint since the All-Star Break in 2005, beating the weak American League teams while squandering against quality playoff opponents (check his results vs. Toronto and New York lately). We all luckily survived the Lenny DiNardo Experience without serious injury.
Much speculation is building over Roger Clemens decision that should come within the next few weeks. Evan pleaded his case for the Red Sox to pull out all the stops in order to get Clemens in a Boston uniform, and I wrote about this last March. Obviously, signing Roger would not only let him come full-circle and heal some wounds he left when he departed for Toronto, but it would form the strongest 1-2-3 rotation punch since Mulder-Hudson-Zito in their prime. I would be ecstatic over this. While I?m gaining more and more confidence this may actually happen, I?m not getting my hopes up. His situation in Houston might be too good to leave, even if it means pitching in the postseason once again.
So, are there any starters on the market? If David Wells cannot return to full health, and Matt Clement continues to flounder into the bullpen, should the Red Sox delve into the market for a starter? While July 31st seems years away, here are some early options for trades to give the rotation a monster boost:
Barry Zito, Oakland Athletics
Zito?s name has been floating around the market for the past few years, with this being the year Zito finally becomes a free agent. The Mets have been the team mentioned the most frequently, but they recently traded for Orlando Hernandez and Brian Bannister is due to return from the DL by mid-June. Are the Red Sox a contender? We all know they have a deep farm system to offer Billy Beane, and Zito would fit in nicely as the #3 starter before Wakefield.
Knowing Billy Beane?s habits though, I?m sure he?ll ask for a lot. Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester, Manny Delcarmen- likely one of those prospects would have to be sent to Oakland for three months (at the most) of Zito. Barry is 4-3 with a 3.16 ERA this season after a horrendous start, so he?s really picked it up lately. Zito?s numbers over the last three years: 39-36, 3.88 ERA. Is he worth a premiere prospect? I think not.
Dontrelle Willis, Florida Marlins
If you think Billy Beane would ask for a gold?s mine in return for Zito, can you even imagine what Florida might want for Willis? The 24-year old has lackluster numbers this season, but really, how much motivation can you have playing for a city where fans flock to the ballpark about as often as Willie Harris hits a home run and your ownership decides to trade away all of your teammates from a year before? Willis pitches tremendously in 2005 to make it back to the postseason, and in return he receives a team destined for last place just to cut major payroll. Basically, don?t take Willis?s 2006 numbers too seriously.
The Marlins would likely ask for two or three of the Red Sox top ten prospects, similar to what the Mets had to pay for the services of Carlos Delgado. Am I willing to part with, say, Jon Lester, Edgar Martinez and Jacoby Ellsbury for Willis? Not really. While the sight of Willis electrifying the Fenway crowd with his fiery demeanor and bear-hugging Ortiz and Manny in the dugout is tempting, I?m not ready to pay the steep price the Marlins will likely crave.
Livan Hernandez, Washington Nationals
The Nationals appear to be free-falling following their surprising 2005 campaign, and the ace of their starting rotation might be the first player traded in an upcoming house cleaning in Washington. Plus, we all know Hernandez has a rocky relationship with manager Frank Robinson. Livan is putting up below-average numbers in 2006 for Washington (3-5, 5.35), but like Willis, this could be out of frustration. Hernandez is 31 years old and pitched well for most of the season in 2005 for the Nationals, but has been on-and-off his entire career. He is due eight million this season and seven million next season.
I might be willing to give this trade a chance depending on the price. Jim Bowden seems like a GM Theo might be able to play around with in terms of finding a bargain for Hernandez, who has pitched on the big stage in years past (2002 World Series). Besides one report the Nationals might start dumping salary, I?m just guessing Hernandez could find his way on the trade market. I would give the Nats a call, but don?t look too deeply into this one.
Greg Maddux, Chicago Cubs
Can you even imagine Greg Maddux going for his last hurrah in Boston? If the Cubs have any sympathy for Maddux, they?ll explore trade opportunities. But knowing Jim Hendry?s idiotic habits, Maddux will likely rot away in the Cubs rotation en route to a 72-90 record. Or Hendry could dangle Maddux out to teams like New York or Boston, hoping to receive quality young hitters in return. But that seems too logical.
Maddux began the season 5-0 with an ERA under 1, but has fallen back to earth since then, coming in at 5-4 with an ERA over 4. Ellsbury may be too high a price, but what about David Murphy and/or Luis Soto? Maddux is owed 6 million for the remainder of this season, which could scare off West Coast contenders like San Diego and Arizona from making a strong push.
Kelvim Escobar, Los Angeles Angels
Escobar and the Angels have yet to agree on a contract extension, meaning this free agen-to-be will likely be mentioned in trade rumors as the trade deadline approaches. I originally thought Escobar was younger than his actual age (29 years old), but nonetheless, Escobar is an intriguing addition. The Angels would likely ask for Wily Mo Pena in return with their desperate need for a power bat. If the Angels continue to fall out of the playoff race and are unable to sign Escobar as July 31st approaches, don?t be shocked to see their price drop.
In the end, I see the Angels trading Escobar along with top prospects for an impact power bat they can either A) sign long-term if they fall out of the race or B) rent for this season if they get hot, like Houston did with Carlos Beltran. Plus, unless Escobar pitches out of his mind in the last two months of the season, no way do I see Boston giving Escobar A.J. Burnett-type money (which reports indicate he will ask for). Dream on.
Other names: Jon Garland, Kyle Lohse, Odalis Perez?guys that lead me to believe the ghost of Jeff Suppan 2003 could return to life in 2006. If the Sox really want to make their rotation the best in the majors, they may have to part ways with quality prospects. Right now, these are some early names floating around trade rumors, so the trade picture should clear up as the long summer approaches.
