Jacoby Ellsbury is a bit different than most targeted players of the Red Sox scouting department and upper management. He brings to the table a variety of skill, most notably speed, defense and the keen ability to spray the ball all over the field. Ellsbury may not be the on-base machine Theo and Co. attempt to focus on acquiring in drafts, players like Kevin Youkilis, in taking their Moneyball and sabermetric views to Boston. The Oregon State alum, who turned down a contract to sign with Tampa Bay after high school in order to take a shot at reaching the College World Series, brings the best glove, athletic ability and pure speed of any player in the Red Sox farm system. He is the prototypical leadoff hitter in Johnny Damon‘¯?s mold. He is the future centerfielder for the Red Sox.
Ellsbury would end up leading the Beavers to the College World Series, posting astounding numbers along the way for a college player. Coach Pat Casey raved about Ellsbury‘¯?s leadership and constant role he played as the teams leadoff man, setting the table for the team, and has no doubt in his mind Ellsbury will one day become a MLB All-Star. His potential and quickness attracted Boston‘¯?s scouts who ridded themselves of their OBP, no-stolen base philosophy in order to grab Ellsbury in the first round. Looking at his college accomplishments, the numbers are hard to ignore for any scout.
2003 @ OSU: 206 AB, 56 R, 68 H, .330 AVG, .510 OBP, 7 HR, 33 RBI, 105 TB, 26 BB/30 K, 14/18 SB
2004 @ OSU: 196 AB, 56 R, 69 H, .352 AVG, .459 OBP, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 90 TB, 30 BB/17 K, 20/24 SB
2005 @ OSU: 244 AB, 56 R, 99 H, .406 AVG, .495 OBP, 6 HR, 48 RBI, 142 TB, 36 BB/21 K, 26/34 SB
Baseball America writer Jim Callis was stunned Ellsbury dropped that low in the draft: ‘¯?I was talking to a scout the other day who was trying to figure out how Ellsbury lasted 23 picks in the 2005 draft. The position players aren’t nearly as good this year; if Ellsbury was in the 2006 draft, he could go in the top five or 10 picks. At this rate, he should be ready by Opening Day 2008, if not sooner. Ellsbury is a better defender than Crisp, so Coco would move to right field, probably.‘¯?
After being drafted, Ellsbury joined class-A Lowell and shined for his new team. He amounted a .317 AVG with a .850 OPS, but more tremendously, stole 23 of 26 bases. He continued to prove upon his remarkable range and defensive ability in centerfield. Even more importantly for a leadoff hitter, Ellsbury struck out just 20 times compared to 24 walks during his first season of minor league experience, so an on-base + speed machine could be growing right before our eyes. But his big thrill was yet to come, as Ellsbury was able to take batting practice at Fenway Park before a game in September.
“If I get nervous, I bear down and focus more,” Ellsbury said of his BP experience to the Oregonian. “I was spraying the ball everywhere. I hit some into the bullpen in right field. I hit a few deep to right-center; it’s a long way out there, and they went out easily.” Which brings us to Ellsbury‘¯?s Achilles heel: power numbers. As you can see in college, Ellsbury failed to amount any high HR or RBI rates. Scouts insist that power can be developed and the fact Ellsbury jumped greatly in doubles from his junior to senior year should be accounted just as much as homerun totals.
This year, Ellsbury began the year in high-A Wilmington, where he immediately jumped to sixth on Baseball America‘¯?s Top Red Sox Prospects list behind then-Red Sox Andy Marte, Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon, Craig Hansen and Dustin Pedroia. He won the award for best athlete, fastest baserunner and best defensive outfielder in the Sox organization going into 2006. Jacoby got off to a blazing start at .373 and finished with seven triples and 25 stolen bases. His defense shined, as Carolina League managers were calling Ellsbury the best defensive player they‘¯?ve ever seen. Making the move to AA Portland has been no trouble for the relentless, spirited Ellsbury, recording a hit in 7 of 15 at-bats, including four ribbies. The future centerfielder is making his way up the farm.
Ellsbury seems to be improving in every category. His .378 OBP with Wilmington in 242 AB is a step in the right direction. He‘¯?s stolen his first 3 bases in Portland. Gold-glove attributes are definitely there with Jacoby, as well as unlimited potential. If Ellsbury can put all the pieces together- speed, defense, contact ability to all fields, some hints of power and on-base- a future Johnny Damon may indeed be waiting in the wings. I can‘¯?t wait to see this kid develop into a star icon before our eyes in the next few years until his opening day start in 2008. It‘¯?s coming faster than you all expect.
