Even though the 2006 season is still alive and the Sox are still in the hunt for a playoff spot, I can’t help but take a look towards 2007. As I write this, Josh Beckett is coughing up hits left and right and has given up five runs through four innings so far. Needless to say, Beckett has not been the Beckett of the National League.
I can’t hold this against Beckett. He’s young, learning, and just came into an extremely tough league. Feel and touch are what he’s dominated with, and he’s working through the fact that it’s not working in the AL. It took Curt Schilling and Roger Clemens years to figure it out. Who knows if Schilling would have ever figured it out if it wasn’t for Clemens?
The jury is still out on Beckett, and we have three more years to watch his progression. However, I would not want to count on Beckett to become the ace of the Red Sox until he actually shows it.
We have an exciting staff in Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield (even though he’s injured at the moment) and David Wells. Next year, all will return except for David Wells. There are plenty of options in the minor leagues and we could turn to Matt Clement, Jonathan Papelbon, or Kyle Snyder to fill the fifth spot.
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| DAISUKE MATSUZAKA / JAPAN TIMES |
However, there’s a Japanese pitcher that asked to be posted after 2005 and he was declined that posting. With this pitcher becoming a free agent after 2007 and thus being able to leave even if the Japanese team doesn’t want him to, his team (the Seibu Lions) may decide to bite the bullet and post Matsuzaka, thereby earning themselves some nice cash.
This pitcher is Daisuke Matsuzaka, and the reason you guys should know the name is because he’s only 25 and has a very real chance of making the Hall of Fame in the major leagues based on his utter dominance of the league in Japan. He is the most dominant pitcher in Japanese Baseball today, and is also widely known for throwing 250 pitches in an high school extra-inning game when he was 17.
The way it would work if Matsuzaka was posted is the way it worked for Ichiro Suzuki. As best as I can remember it, a player is bid on by any number of teams. Teams make blind bids to the Seibu Lions, who then (naturally) choose the highest bid of them all. This is how the Devil Rays gained access to Shinji Mori, who suffered a season ending injury in March.
After the highest bid is selected, (for Matsuzaka, I would guesstimate at around $15-$20 million) the winning team is announced and Matsuzaka may negotiate with that team only. Even if an agreement is not reached, the Lions get to keep the bid money. Matsuzaka would then sign a contract and – presto – he is a member of the club.
With the Red Sox’s pitching woes and Matsuzaka’s age, I fully expect the Red Sox to go after Matsuzaka, hard. Letting Trot Nixon and Mark Loretta walk as a free agent and finding a team to take on Matt Clement could account for most of the 2007 money heading into Matsuzaka’s wallet from the Sox. After 2007, the Red Sox would gain additional flexibility with the departure of Curt Schilling to retirement, Matt Clement completely off the books, Keith Foulke (probably) waved goodbye to, and Manny Ramirez and Jason Varitek entering the final year of their contracts.
While it would benefit the Red Sox best financially to have Matsuzaka become a free agent (thereby bypassing the posting system) in 2007 for payroll reasons, this is highly unlikely to happen, so the Red Sox will just have to content themselves with a financially tough 2007 before massive relief arrives in 2007 and 2008 with expiring contracts, and with rookies arriving on the scene in Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, and so on.
| DAISUKE MATSUZAKA |
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Career Statistics of the Japanese Phenom
(The 2006 season is still ongoing.)
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Year
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W-L
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ERA
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IP
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K
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1999
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16-5
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2.60
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180.0
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151
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2000
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14-7
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3.97
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167.2
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144
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2001
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15-15
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3.60
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240.1
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214
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2002
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6-2
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3.68
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73.1
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78
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2003
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16-7
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2.83
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194.0
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215
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2004
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10-6
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2.90
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146.0
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127
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2005
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14-13
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2.30
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215.0
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226
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2006
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11-4
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2.07
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130.1
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137
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Matsuzaka’s career statistics (to your left) show a dominating pitcher with an ability to strike out many batters and post low ERAs. Much has been made about his workload so far, and while his total innings logged at the age of 25 is certainly concerning, his elbow injury in 2002 and other years with rather low innings pitched temper my apprehensiveness.
He’s a dominating pitcher, with a dominating pitch. That pitch is called a gyroball.
A gyro-what? you may be asking.
The gyroball is the name given to a breaking baseball pitch purported to be used by players in Japan. The pitch was developed by two Japanese researchers, Ryutaro Himeno and Kazushi Tezuka, who used computer simulations to create a new style of delivery intended to reduce stress on the pitcher. At the point of release, instead of having the pitcher’s arm move inwards towards the body (the standard method used in the United States), the pitcher rotates his arm so that it moves away from his body, towards 3rd base. The unusual method of delivery creates a bullet-like spin on the ball, like a bicycle tire spins when facing the spokes or a perfectly thrown football. When thrown by a right hander, the pitch moves sharply down and away from right handed batters and towards left handed batters.
In baseball, most pitches are thrown with backspin, like the fastball, or with a more forward spinning motion, like the curveball and the slider. Batters use the arm speed of the pitcher and the spin on a baseball, highlighted by the seams, to judge the speed of the ball. The gyroball is thrown with the arm speed of a fastball but goes much slower, and since it has a bullet-like spinning motion, on occasion (perhaps when the seams are hidden from view of the batter) it will make experienced batters swing wildly ahead or behind the ball. (Wikipedia)
Here is a video of the only high schooler to throw a gyroball. This high schooler was taught the gyroball by Will Carroll (view Will Carroll Q+A on Fire Brand here).
Here is a video that shows (not very well, in my opinion) Matsuzaka trying his hand at a gyroball.
While Matsuzaka says that he is merely only trying to learn this pitch, it would be enough to befuddle batters. In addition, Matsuzaka possesses excellent pitches other than the gyroball, as well. He hit 100 MPH on the radar gun during the 2004 Olympics – the first Japanese pitcher to ever hit 100. He also throws a slider, changeup, cutter, and forkball. He has won the Gold Glove during all but one of his seasons.
Unfortunately for the Red Sox, a lot of teams will be interested in Matsuzaka, and for good reason. Unfortunately, one of these teams will be the Yankees, and I suppose you can lump in the Mets there. Outbidding the Yankees is impossible, because the Yankees cannot be outbid. Fortunately for us (and I realize we are lucky) is that we live in a big-market economy. However, we have to deal with the luxury tax ramifications. While small-market teams may be currently rolling their eyes, it’s no laughing matter, and while it’s great for the overall game, it’s not great for the Red Sox because the Red Sox do, believe it or not, try to avoid the luxury tax, while the Yankees have no such qualms.
The Yankees will bid what they want, while the Red Sox will bid what they can. There’s a difference. Not even factoring in the involvement of other teams, it will be an uphill battle to get Matsuzaka’s services through the posting system.
On another note, the money paid for the posting system does not count towards the payroll. It does, however, take money out of the bank to help cover what we lose in payroll and luxury tax fees. While having Daisuke Matsuzaka on the Red Sox would be a totally excellent (to borrow a line from Bill and Ted) outcome, it is by no means a sure thing, and instead of A-Rod whiffing at a gyroball for the next several years, it may be David Ortiz doing the whiffing instead.
Daisuke Matsuzaka. 2006-2007 Offseason. Coming in three months. Stay tuned.
