Before the season began, we all believed the Red Sox most immediate and clear improvement would come straight from the pitching staff. The Josh Beckett trade gave us a qualified, young Ace A, while Curt Schilling had recovered from his injury and was forming back into Ace B. The rest of the rotation filled out with Tim Wakefield, Matt Clement and David Wells. A newly structured bullpen gave us hope the pitching would ultimately drive the Red Sox into the playoffs. Instead, we were rewarded with this:
-25th in baseball in ERA
-22nd in opponents batting average
-23rd in OPS against
-25th in total bases allowed
-21st in hits allowed
-22nd in home runs allowed
-19th in WHIP
-27th in DIPS
Good news: Tied for 2nd in balks committed
As you can see, changes need to be made. Curt Schilling??s ERA is up to 4.13. Josh Beckett has been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball. Injuries have rattled that staff down to reliance on young, questionably ready arms like Jon Lester and Kyle Snyder, and players such as Lenny DiNardo and Jason Johnson. The starting staff in 2006 has been frightening. If my bid for an offensive lift like Alfonso Soriano or Andruw Jones never materializes, as I expect will happen, a free agent pitching signee will be much appreciated. But the real question is: who is available that??s worth it?
Exhibit A: Barry Zito
Reasons to sign him: Zito has done a remarkable job carrying the A??s pitching staff to what appears to be another playoff appearance with the absence of Rich Harden. He has been healthy throughout his years as an Athletic, starting 35 games every year from 2001-03, 34 in 2004 and 35 in 2005, so injuries are miles away from a concern. Zito has posted only one lackluster season (11-11, 4.48) and one superb (23-5, 2.75), with the rest being very productive. He has shown the willingness to consistently get right-handers out (.249 BAA). Plus, the guy is 28 years old and is just about hitting his peak as a pitcher. Zito can hike his asking price up to around 75 million with some solid playoff starts.
Reasons to stay away: Believe it or not, Zito actually got worse in some important categories from last season. His opponent batting average went up from .221 to .251, and he is on pace to give up slightly more homeruns, more hits and less strikeouts than 2005. We don??t want to fall into the Josh Beckett trap here either. As much as I hate W-L record, Zito posted a winning percentage in the lower .500??s from 2003-2005. Zito has struggled at Fenway Park over the last three years, too, posting a 9.00 ERA in 2 starts. Playing in Oakland for his entire career, would you sacrifice 70 million for a player that might fold under the pressure in Boston?
Final verdict: Go after Zito until the price becomes too steep. The A??s are out of the bidding picture, but the Yankees, Blue Jays and possibly the Dodgers or Cardinals are not. Unfortunately, you can??t find too many pitchers with tons of American League experience, are left-handed, and have won a Cy Young. The addition of Zito to the Red Sox would be a fine replacement for Schilling as the head of the pitching staff when he retires after 2007. Go hard after Barry.
Exhibit B: Jason Schmidt
Reasons to sign him: Schmidt is better than Zito in ERA, BAA and WHIP for the 2006 season, so could he possibly be the smarter target this winter? Schmidt is making strides to returning somewhere close to his outstanding 2003 campaign with a pretty good 2006 season. Schmidt pitches with a fastball that tops in the high-90s, a devastating changeup (.177 BAA) and a great slider he can pull out of the hat when needed.
Reasons to stay away: Jason Schmidt will be 34 years old on Opening Day 2007, a blocking point for a team looking to invest 3-4 years in this guy. While he has improved this year over his bad 2005 season (for his standards), the numbers compared to 2004 take a sharp decline. His K/9 are down from 3.26 to 1.94 in 2005 and 2.25 in 2006. Schmidt has also fallen into a slump in his last two starts- 6 IP, 8 H, 6 R and 3.1 IP, 7 H, 8 R vs. Arizona and Atlanta, respectively. Could his arm be wearing down? Can this guy really hold up for a playoff run in 2007?
Final Verdict: Expect the Giants to avoid getting any older and let Schmidt walk to another team that needs pitching. I would think Theo doesn??t go near Schmidt unless the winter is at its latter stages and divisional teams have gobbled up Zito and other quality free-agent pitchers, then he could make a desperation attempt. The numbers are too evident, especially the strikeout rates, that Schmidt will continue to decline, and these numbers are coming from the National League. I would pass.
Exhibit C: Mark Mulder
Reasons to sign him: When Mulder gets his shoulder straightened out and comes back 100% healthy in 2007, people will realize this season was a total fluke. Mulder is 29 years old, and his career ERA??s since 2001 have gone like this: 3.45, 3.47, 3.13, 4.43, 3.64. His BAA: .249, .232, .259, .264, .273. Take his 2005 numbers even- the Red Sox would kill to have a pitcher like that on their staff this season. One of the biggest attractions would be the possibility of getting Mulder cheap. Most teams will look at his 2006 numbers and shoulder problems and will back off, while the Sox could swoop in for a cheap price and grab a former Cy Young candidate who will win 18 games.
Reasons to stay away: Bottom line- Mulder has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season: 6-7, 7.14 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 124 H in 93 IP, 50 K?
