Curt Schilling’s changeup seems to be making progress, and he feels it’s good enough to be his No. 2 pitch. If true, it could offer a new look to batters, and Schilling could be in line for another strong season. Developing another strong pitch this late in a pitcher’s career has a very good chance of revitalizing it.
Manager Terry Francona wants to get Wily Mo Pena 400 ABs this year. That’s a lot of ABs, and that means Pena would regularly be spelling Manny, Coco and Drew in the field if Pena’s defense can improve significantly. Pena is spending extra time on the field working on his defense, so there is hope there.
By the same token, Francona intimated he is also looking to get Eric Hinske a lot of at-bats, which is concerning. If we want to get Pena his at-bats, that limits Hinske to filling in at first and third, and we certainly shouldn’t be constantly spelling Lowell and Youkilis. While we have a strong, deep bench (which is a very good thing) there’s potential drawbacks here and here is one: the feeling of Pena and Hinske that they need to get at-bats. If Pena gets 400 AB and Hinske gets about 200, that’s 600 total at-bats going to the bench. Assuming that Lowell plays in 150 games (he played in 153 last year), that leaves 12 games for Hinske, which gives him about 48 ABs. Youkilis played in 147, so we’ll give him 12 games there, so Hinske is on track for a total of 96 AB – nowhere near 400.
As for Pena, Manny played in 130 games last year. He was consistently in the 150s for years previous, so let’s assume he gets into 140. That’s 22 games for Pena at 88 AB. J.D. Drew (barring injury of course) should get into about 140 games like Manny, so that’s 176 there for Pena. Adding in Coco’s probably 140 games, Pena jumps to 264 ABs. Now for David Ortiz, he should play in about 150 games. That gives Pena a total of 312 AB, close enough to 400 AB that that is a reasonable target without factoring injury woes in.
It’s the Hinske projection that worries me. I’m sure Hinske will end up with well over 100 AB due to late inning replacements, pinch-hits, etc. but it’s still a far cry from 400, and Francona has called it a “challenge” to do so, and rightly so, but he’s not ruling it out. Rather, it sounds like he wants to get Hinske as close to 400 AB as he can, and I think that’s a bad idea. For one, for as good as Hinske can be, he is a bench player and bench players by design are not as good as the starters, so why put so many at-bats on a bench player when you can use them on a starter?
Julio Lugo is working on his defense and has adopted something a little different than he is used to. Time will tell if this difference helps, but here it is in Lugo’s words: “”We’re not trying to change anything, we’re just trying to perfect it. I’m trying to make my base a little wider and get the ball more between my legs. It takes a little time, because I’ve done it a different way. Right now I’m thinking about it, and I’ve got to get it [automatic] and react to it. It’s going to take a little while.”
Terry Francona says carrying 12 pitchers is automatic. This could afford room for Manny Delcarmen, J.C. Romero, etc. but a sleeper is Javier Lopez, who threw 1.2 innings of one-hit ball yesterday as he bolstered his stock in Francona’s eyes as a possible lefty-specialist. The question here is: is Francona looking at Romero OR Lopez, or Romero AND Lopez? If so, that’s a problem because Romero is not exactly a righty-killer.
Jonathan Papelbon’s start was encouraging, but he started off hot. We know he does this, it’s what he’s going to do in the later innings I will be paying attention to. Papelbon has to learn not to start off so hot, and to reserve his energy for the long haul and to be able to finish hot. While I feel Papelbon has a 99.9 percent chance of joining the rotation, I will not be surprised to see a common theme of Papelbon starting hot and tailing off in the fifth through seventh innings. Pace has to be learned.
The results of the previous poll:
How does the first spring training game (tie, 4-4 v. MIN) go over with you?
* I think the Red Sox looked good and will be a team to be reckoned with this year!
11% of all votes
* Pretty good. A little rough in some areas, but that’s what ST is for.
24% of all votes
* I can’t make a good judgement on just one game. Let’s see how we progress.
60% of all votes
* If this is how we play in the regular season, wake me up in April 2009!
5% of all vote
The results were exactly what I expected. I think it goes without saying, though, that the Red Sox are fielding quite the team this year. As always, there is a new poll up!
