Now let’s imagine for a moment that we were not baseball fans but general managers. Let us also imagine that we had a future Hall of Fame batter who asked to be traded weeks before the season. Being the smart general manager you are, you’re going to attempt to get some good young pitching in return. You have two offers on the table; Player A and Player B. Player A had an ERA in the low 2’s last year in over 100 innings at AA. Player B had an ERA around 2.50 two years ago in AA but has since gone on to earn an ERA of 2.70 in AAA. Then, when promoted to the majors went 5-0 in his first 8 games, with an ERA in the low 2’s. Although he struggled with his command a bit (as most rookies do) Player B eventually finished his rookie season at 7-2. Player A is right-handed while Player B is a lefty, both are very young but Player A is 2.5 years younger. Assuming both players would cost your team an equal amount in a trade, which pitcher would you take? Don’t continue reading until you’ve come to your honest conclusion.
In case you haven’t figured out out already, Player B is our own Jon Lester. Sure, he hasn’t been compared to Roger Clemens like our rival’s young phenom Phil Hughes (he doesn’t go by Phillip anymore) but he has pitched beyond AA and even has some major league experience under his belt. And while Hughes likely will not be called up until at least mid-season, Lester would most likely be ready if needed in April. Lester’s also gone through some growing pains at the major league level and has shown to some degree that he is capable of being not only effective but dominant against major league hitters. Plus, he is of course an always valuable lefty.
Now Hughes comes in to this season with quite a bit of hype. In fact, so much so that it’s easy to forget that he’s only 20 years old and has yet to pitch above AA. He has quite a bit of AAA innings ahead of him before he will even be considered for a promotion to the bigs. And even if he’s successful there, he’s yet to prove he could ever transition to the Show and be effective. His spring to date certainly hasn’t helped his cause either. He’s failed to pitch deep into his outings, managing only 4 2/3 innings overall in which he’s allowed 6 hits, 6 walks and 4 earned runs while striking out 2. Now I’m not saying he can’t pitch in the majors, he may well be dominant there some day. But if it wasn’t for the hype, would anyone be surprised that a AA prospect is pitching so innefectively against lineups including major league hitters? When all is said and done, it won’t matter how many future Hall of Famers you compare the guy to, he’s still gotta actually pitch himself.
It doesn’t seem as if many fans are expecting all that much from Lester this year. He has said himself how much his offseason troubles have given him a much more focused state of mind. The guy is barely 23 and just as Hughes does, he has dominating stuff. He lacked control all of last season but still showed more than just flashes of brilliance. He was labeled as a phenom now because of any minor league hype but because he actually pitched like one in the bigs. Sports shows were comparing him to Jered Weaver and Francisco Liriano. He was undefeated in his first 8 starts based purely on his stuff as his control was an issue. He is working now on being able to repeat his mechanics in his sleep. It is his a slip in his mechanics that he feels caused him to lose his control late last season. If he somehow was able to regain his control, there’s no reason to think he couldn’t return to the form that allowed him to go 7-2 last season. He’s most definitely someone to keep an eye on as he competes in AAA next season. On top of all his ability and potential he he has the chance to become the feel good story of the year as well. As a baseball fan it’s hard not to root for him.
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