One thing I’ve noticed Red Sox pitchers doing a lot this spring is not walking batters. Time and time again I keep hearing “he struck out (insert number here) and walked none.”
It’s been happening a lot, so I wanted to see if it was just me or if the Red Sox really are the control-masters as of late, especially now that David Wells has departed (and … um … quit drinking alcohol … still trying to wrap my head around that one).
The starting pitchers in major league games have BB/K/IP ratios of:
Out of the principals, here’s how the totals stack up:
56 IP, 8 BB, 52 K.
That’s a K/BB ratio of 6.5. To find a comparison, I looked at all the pitchers during this past regular season with a minimum innings pitched of 60 (it was either that or 40, and 60 is closer to 56 than 40). The best K/BB was posted at 6.54 by …
Curt Schilling. Second was Johan Santana at 5.21.
The Red Sox’s starter ERA in 2006 was an even 5.00, “good’ for 24th in the majors. The K/BB ratio was 13th in the majors at 2.11.
The best K/BB was posited by the Minnesota Twins at 3.26 (starters only) who finished with an ERA of 4.50, 9th in the majors.
Unfortunately, I can’t seem to find any information on previous year’s spring trainings, but the mere fact that in 56.0 IP this spring training the Red Sox starters have posted a K/BB equal to that of Curt Schilling and double that of the Minnesota Twins is … very good.
Even though the Twins led the majors in K/BB, they finished 9th in ERA. This goes to show that K/BB isn’t everything. You can strike out as much as you can, walk as little as you can, but those balls that get hit by bats need to stay in the park or be minimized to singles to truly escape trouble. However, K/BB is a great indicator of how successful a pitcher will be, bar none. The Red Sox excel in this area.
While I’m not going to anoint the starting pitching staff as the best in the game just yet, the signs are there. Four power pitchers, one aging veteran who is an ace. One change-of-pace starter serving as the heart. A successful closer who had either the most dominating or the second most dominating season ever as a closer (Dennis Eckersley being the other) returning to starting. The most heralded Japanese pitcher ever coming over to don Red Sox whites, and a former phenom who seems to be making huge strides in his second year in the American League.
Schilling had a 3.94 ERA last year to go along with that 6.54 K/BB. The lowest team ERA of starters last year? An even 4.00, claimed by the Detroit Tigers. So while that K/BB may be hard to match over the course of a full season, is the ERA matchable? Yes, it is. I see no reason why the Red Sox starters can’t match that ERA. None whatsoever. Here’s the reason: Not only are the Red Sox starters excelling in K/BB, every one of their starting pitchers are effective. They get the job done. I can’t see Tim Wakefield laying a 5.50 ERA egg up there. Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Papelbon … they won’t be lousy. (Side note on Beckett: his ERA before his final start was 4.82. While his final tally of 5.01 is unsightly, is 4.82 so terrible? It’s not great, but if he had not made that final start, a lot of people would be feeling a bit more confident about him right now. Are you feeling confident? No? Well, maybe you should be.)
Can the starters keep up this crazy K/BB total in the regular season? No, I wouldn’t be so presumptuous as to make that claim, considering how “low” the Twins finished in K/BB last year, leading the league. But (ah, the proverbial “but) …
Curt Schilling had a 6.54 K/BB last year. Since 2000, his K/BB has dipped under 5.54 once – his horrendous 2005 showing of a 3.96 K/BB.
Jonathan Papelbon had a 5.77 K/BB last year.
Josh Beckett had a 2.14 K/BB last year, and a career K/BB of 2.58. And he’s only 26. He’s not 36, those who love to detract from Beckett. TWEN. TEE. SIX. I’d guarantee improvement.
Tim Wakefield had a 1.77 K/BB last year (unsurprising, and matching his career totals. In 2005, he had a 2.22 K/BB.)
Daisuke Matsuzaka had a 2.70 K/BB in his Japanese career, and a 5.88 last year (4.61 in 2005).
Schilling is going to keep it up. Papelbon is showing that last year was no fluke. Beckett is really turning heads with 17 K and 1 BB in 16.2 IP. Dice-K can post a solid K/BB total, and Wakefield more often than not successfully navigates around his poor 1.77 K/BB to post solid totals (and excellent ones for a #5 starter).
If you can keep people off the bases by striking them out and not walking them, you’re not going to give up very many runs.
Well… it looks like the Sox starters have taken that to heart.
That spells trouble for the rest of the major leagues.