Letting Orlando Cabrera go was Theo Epstein’s biggest mistake of his short career as a general manager, and we’re feeling the effects of this to this day.
Let’s backtrack a little bit. On July 31st, 2004, the Red Sox traded away their icon, Nomar Garciaparra. They also traded away outfielder Matt Murton, who is struggling to this day to be accepted by the Cubs. In return, the Red Sox got Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz.
We knew coming in that Orlando Cabrera was a pretty good fielder, and could handle the stick decently.
We had no idea that the team and the fans would fall in love with him. He immediately energized the team, lived up to his defensive billing, and hit .294/.320/.465 for the Red Sox. Orlando Cabrera was a very, very large reason why the Red Sox won the World Series in 2004. He had a personal handshake for everyone, played with a smile on his face, and while he was no Big Papi, the way he carried himself at the plate inspired confidence that Cabrera would do well. He was like a little kid after winning the World Series, and it was a love affair with our shortstop all over again.
We are still trying to recapture that love affair.
In the off-season, it looked as if the Red Sox had no interest in resigning Orlando Cabrera. I said in the article just linked that “he provides smooth defense, solid offense, and his attitude is infectious. I have become a big fan of his and will follow him wherever he goes. I hope thatǃÙs Boston.”
Unfortunately (and definitely warranted at the time), we all know what happened. Orlando Cabrera signed a four-year contract with the Los Angeles Angels, and the Red Sox signed shortstop Edgar Renteria to a four-year contract. Cabrera had historically not been great with the bat, and Renteria was a clear upgrade.
This was the beginning of the end.
The Red Sox should have resigned Orlando Cabrera. Here’s why.
While we signed the best shortstop on the market at the time, Edgar Renteria proved a colossal bust at Fenway. Renteria has gone on record saying that the playing field at Fenway Park was terrible and the adjustment to the American League was so daunting that it would have taken him two years to regain his stroke. After trying to defend him for much of 2005, I sit here glad he’s gone… but he never should have been here in the first place.
Orlando Cabrera also had a lousy season in 2005, hitting .257/.309/.365, but he ranked among the top fielders at his position in 2005. His Wins Above Replacement Player in 2005 was 4.4. Renteria’s was 2.9. That means that we could have had roughly 1.4 more wins with OC in our lineup over Renteria.
We tied for the division in 2005. We ended up with the wild card and got swept by the Chicago White Sox. The Yankees went and lost to the … Anaheim Angels. Orlando Cabrera’s team. We could have been playing the Angels, and we could have potentially defeated them. (Another byproduct of this: Edgar Renteria could have very well ended up on the Angels, or David Eckstein could have remained; thus depriving the St. Louis Cardinals of their leader of the 2006 World Series.)
After that year, the Red Sox dumped Edgar Renteria. Theo brought in a slick fielding shortstop named Alex Gonzalez for one year and traded Edgar Renteria to the Atlanta Braves for Andy Marte, a highly touted infield prospect.
It was at this time that something else happened.
Johnny Damon defected to the Yankees.
I can’t remember what Red Sox book talked about this (I’ve read many), but one thing the Red Sox have done well in the years since Theo has been general manager is their ability to take one step back, take a deep breath, and “act, not react.”
This was not one of those times. Panic ensued. Andy Marte, Kelly Shoppach, Guillermo Mota and cash were sent to the Cleveland Indians for Coco Crisp, Josh Bard and David Riske.
Coco Crisp had an off-year in 2006, Josh Bard was part of another panic trade sending away reliever Cla Meredith and bringing back Doug Mirabelli, and David Riske turned into Javier Lopez (a bright spot, I suppose).
Last year, Orlando Cabrera hit .282/.335/.404 with a WARP of 5.9 (but he coughed on defense and suffered through an “average” year). Gonzalez was at a 2.4 WARP. Two straight years of below average WARPs bested by Cabrera.
This year, Coco Crisp has been an unmitigated disaster at the plate, although he has provided fantastic defense.
After Alex Gonzalez departed to ink a three-year deal with the Cincinnati Reds, Theo had to find yet another shortstop, having traded (okay, so he wasn’t general manager at the time of the trade, but he was giving heavy input) Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez and two minor league relievers for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell.
That player was Julio Lugo, recently demoted to the nine spot and looking very much like he will be in a different uniform next year. Orlando Cabrera is hitting .339/.380/.451 (through June 13, and all other 2007 statistics are through that date as well) … and as always, is providing fantastic defense and an infectious attitude. (Although, to be fair to Lugo, he is doing very well on the defensive spectrum and all peripherals point to Lugo doing better with the bat eventually.)
For some reason, Theo’s decisions with shortstops have been awful. Every high-profile signing has been a basic disaster, while the under the radar ones have been gems. Why? Maybe because he’s falling into the same trap as most everyone falls in with high-profile players: they look at the name and cherry pick the gaudy numbers. With the low-profile signings, he more judiciously looks at the statistics, the trends, the opinions, and makes an informed decision. Regardless, Theo is just doing a bad job, and it all points back at the decision to remove Orlando Cabrera. Since then, we’ve had shortstops with 2.4 WARPs, and we’ll be lucky if Lugo matches that WARP.
Getting rid of Orlando Cabrera, then, created the following:
The acquisition of Edgar Renteria, Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp and the trading of Cla Meredith.
Good lord. The four biggest, most glaring mistakes, of the post-2004 years … all because of the decision to let Orlando Cabrera walk. (And those subpar offensive years in 2005 and 2006 by Cabrera don’t even factor in how much he would have benefited from the Green Monster.)
What should the Red Sox have done? Sure, hindsight is a fantastic thing to have, but we should have resigned Orlando Cabrera, and then inked centerfielder Kenny Lofton to a two-year contract (okay, one year, but he would have resigned for 2007).
Why Kenny Lofton?
Well, instead of scrambling to find the answer to Johnny Damon, we should have just backed off and acted, not reacted. The Red Sox felt it was imperative to find the next face of the Red Sox. Someone to replace Damon’s marketing power and offensive prowess. Even better, they thought, was to find someone who could do it for the next ten years! So instead of focusing on what mattered: getting the best option, they got Coco Crisp.
The acquisition of Coco Crisp wasn’t exactly ill-received around these parts when it happened. The previous two years in Cleveland had been solid, and most people thought he would succeed. However, he hasn’t. And it was Theo’s job to see that he wouldn’t succeed.
Without signing Renteria, we wouldn’t have had a high-level prospect to send Cleveland (unless, and this thought horrifies me, the Red Sox dangled Jonathan Papelbon or Jon Lester instead) for Coco Crisp. Meanwhile, while we’ve suffered through the Coco years, Lofton has continued being … well, Kenny Lofton. Cheap. Still producing. Why isn’t this guy in more demand? His age? I don’t care how old he is. I care what he does at the plate.
In 469 AB for the Dodgers last year, Lofton hit .301/.360/.403 with 32 stolen bases and five caught stealing. For the decrepit Texas Rangers this year, he’s hitting 271/.357/.382 so far (16/3 SB/CS rate). Talk about a pretty good leadoff hitter or an excellent #9 … and someone who vastly outproduces Coco Crisp and Julio Lugo.
And instead of having Joel Pineiro or Mike Timlin in the bullpen, we have Cla Meredith, who … well, he’s dominated. For the Padres. Not the Red Sox.
In addition, not having Josh Bard maybe means Kelly Shoppach is still on this team. Sure, he could have been part of the panic trade instead of Bard, but who’s to say he wouldn’t have handled Wakefield (which led to the panic trade)? Shoppach is a gifted defender who is hitting .386/.462/.596 this season in 57 AB (Mirabelli has 57 as well).
Having Kenny Lofton also swings the door wide open next year for Jacoby Ellsbury or any of the high-profile centerfielders entering the market: Ichiro Suzuki, Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, Mike Cameron, or Japanese import Kosuke Fukodome (a rightfielder who could play center, ala J.D. Drew).
Meanwhile, Orlando Cabrera would have gone on doing his thing, and would have become a free agent after 2008. Maybe we resign him, maybe we don’t. If we don’t?
Adam Everett, Rafael Furcal, and … Edgar Renteria (remember, in this alternate universe, E-Rent may have been coveted by us based on the years he’s had in 2006 and 2007) would be on the market. If Dustin Pedroia becomes the shortstop, we could ink Ray Durham or Orlando Hudson.
Those are better options than we have now. We have no options now. We have Coco Crisp, who we’ll be forced to trade for pennies on the dollar. We have Julio Lugo, who will be traded for nowhere near Andy Marte’s caliber. We don’t have Cla Meredith. We don’t have Kelly Shoppach.
CF Kenny Lofton
1B Kevin Youkilis
DH David Ortiz
LF Manny Ramirez
RF J.D. Drew
3B Mike Lowell
C Jason Varitek
SS Orlando Cabrera
2B Dustin Pedroia
Tell me that’s not better than what we have right now. Go ahead, I dare you.
Theo’s biggest mistake wasn’t the Bard/Meredith panic trade. Not the Renteria signing, the Crisp trade, or the Lugo signing. It was the move that set all THOSE moves into effect: letting Orlando Cabrera depart as a free agent.
Could Julio Lugo turn this all around and turn into a great shortstop by year’s end? Sure.
But right now, letting Orlando Cabrera go was a colossal mistake. One we are still paying for… literally.
