By Daniel Rathman.
Zach asked me to fill in for him today, as he is celebrating the Jewish new year holiday.
There’s only one way to start this preview of the upcoming weekend series against the streaking Yankees: PAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAPI!!!!!!!
With one swing of the bat, on a 3-1 fastball from Devil Rays closer Al Reyes with one out and Julio Lugo on first in the ninth inning, David Ortiz supplied the Sox with an immense amount of momentum heading into Friday night’s opener against the Yankees at Fenway. Papi’s blast barely stayed fair, and cleared the wall by a mere foot, but it was as huge as any shot onto Lansdowne Street could have been.
Big Papi saved the Red Sox from an embarrassing series loss at home to the Rays, he spared them from squandering another game of their shrinking AL East lead, and most importantly, he brought a smile to the face of every Red Sox player, erasing the frustrations that had built up over the earlier innings.
Now on to detailing the final chapter of the Red Sox/Yankees 2007 regular season rivalry.
The Yankees come to Fenway Park having won five of their last six (and the last three) contests against the Red Sox. If they finish off the Blue Jays on Thursday, they will also ride an eight-game winning streak into the weekend, setting up a showdown of momentum vs. momentum. The overall head-to-head record between the Sox and Yanks this season is 7-8; this weekend’s series will settle the score.
Before we get to the game-by-game breakdown, how about some good news? Manny Ramirez — apparently inspired by Papi’s ability to overcome knee and shoulder ailments to propel the Sox to victory — is expected to return to the field for Friday’s game. Now we just need to hope that his “vacation” in south Florida didn’t put Manny in a Spring Training frame of mind. Either way, it’ll be great to have our powerful, enigmatic, loveable (can anyone be all of those at the same time?) back just in time for rivalry weekend and the stretch run.
Friday at 7:05pm: Andy Pettitte (NYY) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (BOS)
Friday’s starting pitchers enter the game on opposite sides of the momentum spectrum. Pettitte comes in sporting a 3.14 ERA that’s been as tasty as pi to Yankees fans over the past two months. Dice-K, on the other hand, has allowed five or more runs in four of his last five starts, and hasn’t gotten through the seventh inning of an outing since August 10th.
Neither of the two starters however, have pitched particularly well against their opponents. Pettitte did win his last start against Boston — a seven-inning, three-run effort — but of his three prior starts versus the Red Sox this season, just one was of the quality variety (he surrendered five runs in the other two). He also made a relief appearance, tossing a scoreless inning, but the word that comes to mind in describing Pettitte’s work against the Sox this season is: inconsistent (and we all know how much Joe Morgan hates that).
Conversely, Matsuzaka has been quite consistent against New York this season; consistently ineffective, that is. In his three starts against the league’s most potent offense, the rookie has struggled to a 6.98 ERA and 1.40 WHIP — though he is, somewhat astonishingly, 2-1. Dice-K has allowed six, four, and five runs in his three outings, and though he hasn’t exactly been mauled, the Yankees have clearly had his number in 2007.
The best Red Sox hitters against Pettitte this season have been Jason Varitek, Kevin Youkilis, and the man who has been sunbathing, er, working out in south Florida: Manny Ramirez. Tek is 4-for-12 with two homers against the southpaw; Youk is 5-for-11 with a dinger and a double; and Manny is 6-for-13 with a two-bagger and a round-tripper. On the other end of the spectrum we have Big Papi — who has compiled a lilliputian .143 average and .330 OPS against Pettite this year, collecting just two hits in 14 at-bats — and Julio Lugo, who has matched that 2-for-14.
The Yankees who have hit Dice-K particularly well this year include Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Jason Giambi, and Jorge Posada. Judas is 4-for-10 with a homer and 4 RBIs; Jeter is 4-for-9 with two taters; Giambi is 3-for-5 with a double; and Posada is 3-for-6 with a two-bagger of his own. Dice-K for his part, has been the bomb against some Yankee hitters. In particular, he has held Bobby Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Hideki Matsui, and Alex Rodriguez to a single hit in 24 at-bats. If Matsuzaka can hold the middle of the order in check without losing his control (or mental focus, for that matter), the Sox should be fine in this one.
Dare I predict this one? I guess. How does Yankees 7, Red Sox 4 sound? (Yes, I’m only doing it because I don’t want to give myself a splinter from knocking on firewood for 40 consecutive hours.)
Saturday at 3:55pm: Chien-Ming Wang (NYY) vs. Josh Beckett (BOS)
Ah, the matchup of the 18-game winners. The duel of Cy Young contenders. The middle game of this potentially crucial three-game set. The game during which we will most likely be submitted to an overdose of Tim McCarver.
Chien-Ming Wang has been, much like Pettitte, very inconsistent against the Sox this season. He has made four starts against Boston, and won three of them. But only a pair of those starts have been quality efforts, and despite hurling a one-hit gem through seven innings in his last game against Boston, Wang has only mustered a bloated 1.44 WHIP versus the Sox this year. The Taiwanese northpaw however, has gone seven innings or more in each of his last four starts, allowing more than one earned run just once over that span. Keeping the ball low in the zone and effectively mixing in his breaking stuff is key to Wang’s success.
Beckett, like Dice-K, has been very stable in his three outings against the Bombers this year. He has allowed four earned runs in each of them, but has steadily improved. In his last start against New York, he allowed four runs in 6.1 innings of work, despite allowing 13 hits. The bottom line: Beckett is our ace, with a 3.27 ERA and impeccable 173/36 K/BB ratio, and there’s no reason to doubt his ability to at least give us a chance to win this ballgame.
The primary troublemaker for Wang against the Sox this season has been Manny — yup, him again — Ramirez, who is 4-for-9 against CMW in 2007. Kevin Youkilis (4-for-10), Coco Crisp (3-for-9), and David Ortiz (4-for-10) have also hit the righty well. On the other hand, J.D. Drew is an awful 0-for-9 against Wang this year, and Julio Lugo is just 1-for-10.
Beckett, meanwhile, has manhandled Johnny Damon (1-for-7), but struggled at times against many of the other Yankees. Melky Cabrera (5-for-10), Jorge Posada (4-for-6), and Alex Rodriguez (5-for-11) have been particularly difficult for Beckett to retire. On the bright side, most of those hits have been of the one-base variety, as Beckett has coughed up only seven extra-base knocks in his three starts against New York this year, and just one homerun.
I gave Friday’s game to the Yanks, so I’ll give Saturday’s to the Sox, just to create more drama for Sunday. 6-4 Boston sounds about right.
Sunday at 8:05pm: Roger Clemens (NYY) vs. Curt Schilling (BOS)
The rubber match — at least by my predictions — pits two seasoned, accomplished veterans against each other. Both pitched well in their last outings against their opponents, with one notable difference: Clemens won, while Schilling lost. The only thing not to like about this one is once again the color guy.
As Curt welcomes the Yankees to the jungle, Clemens returns from a brief stint on the shelf. The 45 year-old “savior”‘s muscle reportedly looked “pretty nasty” in a recent MRI exam (I’ll spare you the details, on the chance that you’re reading this over a meal), but he’s willing to pitch through it. In his lone start against Boston this year, Clemens limited the Sox to just two hits (one by Drew, one by Ortiz) and a run over six innings, though he did walk five batters, while striking-out only a pair. He was victorious in his only outing versus the Sox, but Clemens’ 4.45 ERA is hardly savior-like, and the Boston lineup should be able to manage at least a couple more runs against him at Fenway.
As for Schilling, well, he has been erratic against the Bombers this year. In four starts, Schilling is 0-2 with a 5.76 ERA, but his last try was a fine seven-inning, two-run effort in which he was simply outdueled by Wang. Schilling is the kind of pitcher who can just fire himself up and battle, and he is coming in with a streak of four straight quality starts. The key to his success will be slowing down Derek Jeter, who is a remarkable 7-for-12 against him this year, Robinson Cano (5-for-11 with two homers), and Alex Rodriguez (3-for-11, but with a pair of dingers).
Once again, to avoid the wood-knocking, I’ll give this one to the Bombers; though not without a fight. I’ll go with a 4-3 New York victory.
Win or lose, this should be a weekend full of spirited, fun-to-watch baseball. As long as Tim McCarver and Joe Morgan don’t ruin it, that is.
I only ask for one thing.
Don’t get swept.
That’s an order, not a request.
