Josh Beckett has had, undeniably, a season for the ages. He is tied for the Major League lead with eighteen wins and has a 3.27 ERA. This is the type of work we were expecting when we traded future superstar Hanley Ramirez for him and gave him his multi-year extension after just a few starts last season. Is he the front-runner for the Cy Young award, though? There are many deserving candidacies, from perennial favorites such as Johan Santana and Roy Halladay to breakout players such as Erik Bedard and Fausto Carmona.
I ranked the top thirteen contenders using a composite rating comprised of the following statistics: VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), WPA (Win Probability Added), HR9 (Home Runs Allowed Per Nine Innings), ERA, WHIP, Wins, Strikeouts, and K/BB ratio. Explanations of how these were used and notes on the individual candidates will follow, but here are my top 13 candidates as of right now:
1. C.C Sabathia, Cleveland
2. Erik Bedard, Baltimore
3. Josh Beckett, Boston
4. Johan Santana, Minnesota
5. Kelvim Escobar, Los Angeles
6. Fausto Carmona, Cleveland
7. Dan Haren, Oakland
8. Justin Verlander, Detroit
9. John Lackey, Los Angeles
10. Joe Blanton, Oakland
11. Roy Halladay, Toronto
12. Chien-Ming Wang, New York
13. Mark Buehrle, Chicago
Sabathia, Beckett and Santana are probably the odds-on favorites at this point to win the award. They have all amassed gawdy win totals, have the kind of name recognition sportswriters generally go for, and have served as the unflappable captain of pitching staffs that have had to endure injuries or rotation shuffling.
The dark horse candidate, and player who should be a lot more talked about than he is, is Erik Bedard. He leads AL pitchers in Win Probability Added, which means that he has performed the best when his team needed him the most. His 221 strikeouts also lead the league. This has been his breakout season, though, and it will be hard for his candidacy to generate enough momentum to supplant the abovementioned three in sportswriters