In these times of peril, I think we all need to take a step back and look at the larger picture. Sure, we would’ve had a better series in Toronto if we had sent out the All-Star Home Run Derby pitchers out in the late innings, sure, we have several key starters out with injury, sure, the Evil Empire lurks just 1.5 games behind.
But it could be worse. A whole lot worse. The Red Sox have the third best record in baseball since the All-Star break. And while I still think the team has it in them to win the division, we aren’t in the even more uncomfortable position that the Mets are in of not having the Wild Card to fall back on.
And the Wild Card itself, while not exactly lending itself in our situation to momentum going into the postseason, isn’t the worst position to be in. Look at how Wild Cards have fared over the past five seasons:
2006, AL Wild Card Detroit Tigers reach the World Series.
2005, NL Wild Card Houston Astros reach the World Series.
2004, AL Wild Card Boston Red Sox win the World Series, NL Wild Card Houston Astros reach the NLCS and lose in game seven.
2003, NL Wild Card Florida Marlins win the World Series, AL Wild Card Boston Red Sox reach the ALCS and lose in game seven.
2002, AL Wild Card Anaheim Angels beat NL Wild Card San Francisco Giants in seven games.
That’s three of the past five championships and six of the past ten World Series teams. Terry Francona said in an interview on Monday that the team’s long-term goal was to win the World Series, and we shouldn’t think of winning the Division as a necessary step to achieving that. There’s some meat to that argument.
Our playoff odds, according to Baseball Prospectus, are still 99.99%. Last week our divisional odds were as high as 99.6%, and they have since fallen to 82.2%. I guess beggers can’t be choosers, and the season certainly begins anew once it’s down to just four, but I still can’t believe we have a legitimate chance of blowing the divisional lead that was once as high as 14.5 games.
Oh well. I’m just glad I’ll be able to watch our boys in October. Let’s root for the healthiest and most confident possible team for the postseason.
What else can we do?
Addendum by Evan
NEVER. FORGET. NEVER. GIVE UP.
Let it load … but it’s worth your time. We did it in 2004. We can do it this year.