Yeah. I did just say it. I’ll say it again. Do not bring back Mike Lowell.
Why would we bring back Mike Lowell? Just because he’s a nice guy? Because he rode a hot streak to MVP of the World Series?
Yeah, he did hit .320. Yeah, he did lead the team in RBI with 120. Yeah, he’s a consummate professional. Guess what? So was Bill Mueller.
You remember Billy Ballgame, right? The guy who won the batting title in 2003 with a line of .326/.398/.540? Hit two grandslams in a game from both sides of the plate?
He hit .283/.365/.446 for the 2004 World Champion Red Sox, and then followed that up with a .295/.369/.430 line in 2005. We let him go. Mike Lowell took his place.
Billy Ballgame played 32 games with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He hit .252/.357/.402 and his knee issues forced him to retire. The last time he donned a Boston jersey was this October… when he threw out the first pitch before Game 6 of the ALCS.
We let Johnny Damon go. Now the Yankees are trying to trade him.
We let Pedro Martinez go. He throws an 85 mph fastball and the contract is a bust.
We let Derek Lowe go, and while he’s still racking up the numbers, he’s… not exactly staying off the tabloids.
This front office knows what it’s doing. I implore them to continue to stick by their guns.
Look, I love Mike Lowell. I love the fact that since we dumped Shea Hillenbrand, the hot corner has been manned by two men that no one can possibly justify as anything less than professional: Bill Mueller and Mike Lowell.
But just like Mueller’s time was past, Mike Lowell’s time might very well be past.
It was unthinkable two short years ago that Mike Lowell would hit the free agent market at a certainty to upgrade his current $9 million contract — an albatross two short years ago. But it happened.
But Mike Lowell — credit to him for taking full advantage — didn’t come among these numbers with a simple renaissance. Fenway Park gave him those numbers. Fenway Park gave him a .373/.418/.575 line, while hitting .276/.339/.438.
Yeah, he hit better on the road in 2006 — can’t deny that. He hit .260/.327/.436 at home and .310/.352/.514 on the road. No wonder the Red Sox tried to shop him to find no takers. If Mike Lowell was under contract for one more year and the Red Sox shopped him, the suitors would be lining up at the table.
Look, just like 2005 wasn’t indicative of Mike Lowell’s ability when he was a contract dump doesn’t mean 2007 is indicative of his ability. 2005 was the aberration. We know this. His cumulative OPS aside of 2005 is remarkably consistent.
It still doesn’t mean it’s the right move to sign Mike Lowell.
He’ll enter 2008 as a 34-year old. He’s coming off a year in which he made his living hitting at Fenway Park.
Sure, if we resign him, he’ll continue to take advantage of Fenway Park. Absolutely. No question about it.
But Mike Lowell is on top of the world right now. He can demand — and get — a very lucrative contract. He is a World Series MVP. His popularity and reputation currently knows no bounds. The money is going to pour in.
Why should the Red Sox give in?
Why? For goodwill? Because the fans want him back?
We wanted Johnny Damon and Pedro Martinez back. Call up Brian Cashman and Omar Minaya in New York and ask them how it’s working out so far.
If this ownership signs Mike Lowell to a two-year contract, I’ll be the first to tell you that it’s a good thing. But a four-year contract, which Lowell can get on the free agent market from either the Yankees or Philadelphia Phillies?
If they do, you can put this down immediately in Theo’s “Free Agent Busts” folder.
I don’t care if he replicates the numbers he put up in 2007 for the next four years if we sign him. For what Lowell will demand in terms of money, it’s not worth it.
I love Mike Lowell. I’m thrilled everyone knows how good he is now. I wouldn’t be surprised if he left and put up identical numbers with no home/road distinction, hitting better on the road, or finding his new home to his liking (which would occur at Citizen’s Bank Park).
Players who hit out of their minds at Fenway Park and disappoint on the road will always use those inflationary numbers to create more dollars for themselves. There’s no shame in it, and I’m not trying to change that. But the fact is, what Mike Lowell put up in 2007 is not going to match what he’s going to get in a contract if he hits the market.
He couldn’t be traded a year ago at $9 million. Now, four years at $12 million per seems to be the going rate. And we want to resign him?
The only way I would resign him is if it was a very reasonable contract. Not if we overbid for him. Reports have Mike Lowell accepting a hometown discount as long as he gets three years. I’m not even sure this is a good solution. It could be, sure. But what’s the discount?
One year didn’t reflect the true Mike Lowell in 2005. Why do people seem to think that one year of 2007 reflects the true Mike Lowell?
As much as I would hate to see Mike Lowell in pinstripes, if the Yankees want to overbid for someone who isn’t worth it … then let them have Johnny Damon vol. II.
Chances are they’ll be trading him in two years anyways.
