Winning streaks are fickle things at times. Just when you think you’ve figured something out, the rug can be snagged out from under you. The 2007 Boston Red Sox longest winning streak of the season last year came with it all on the line, winning their last seven games to close out their second World Series sweep in the last four seasons.
During the course of the 2007 regular season, the Red Sox never won more than five consecutive games, a feat they accomplished on three separate occasions, while winning four games in a row four times.
The 2008 Boston Red Sox stand at the precipice of their longest regular season winning streak since they swept through a twelve game interleague adventure in June of the 2006 season having just swept a remarkable four game series with the Texas Rangers.
Winning streaks aside, the last four games got me thinking about all the things that have to fall right in a four game series against the same opponent to pull off a sweep. It’s hard enough to take a three game series where inevitably there will fall a pitching match up that falls against your favor. In a four game series however, the depth of your starting pitching is even further called out on the carpet. There’s no hiding the tail of your staff in a four game series.
In theory, the straight odds of one team defeating another in four straight games with each individual game a 50/50 proposition are 6.25%. Assuming the Red Sox are in fact a better team than their opponent this past weekend, lets bump that 50/50 split to 65/35 in the Red Sox favor. Even as a favorite to that degree the Red Sox would only expect to sweep the series 18% of the time.
In reality, a four game series is a grind that more often than not ends in a split between the two teams.
Looking back on the 2007 season, the Red Sox played in eight regular season four game series. Over those eight series, they only lost one, a four game set in Oakland where their only win was Curt Schilling’s near no hitter.
They split series four times against Texas, Toronto, the Angels, and Minnesota, while taking three of four twice. In May of last season buoyed by sweep of a double header to close the series, the Red Sox took three of four from Detroit at Fenway Park. In September, they did the same against Baltimore at Camden Yards. Each time, their loss was a blowout by their opponent in a game started by Daisuke Matsuzaka, proving that four in a row against the same team is a tall order.
Last season, they managed to pull that tall order off once in the regular season; in August against the Chicago White Sox who welcomed the Red Sox into their home park and promptly laid down for four straight games losing 11-3, 10-1, 14-2, and 11-1.
Looking back at this weekend’s four game sweep of the Texas Rangers, you come away with the feeling that this could have or should have been a two up, two down series split.
Sandwiched between two blowouts were two games that saw the Red Sox backs up against the wall in ball games before snatching victories from the Rangers bullpen.
In game two of the series, the Rangers were up 3-2 heading into the eighth inning with a 82.5% chance of closing it out for the win. That was until Manny Ramirez exploded for a two run shot after a David Ortiz single had tied the game at three.
courtesy of fangraphs.com
In game three of the series, the Rangers were up 5-0 heading into the seventh inning with a 97.5% chance of closing it out for the win. But once again the Rangers’ bullpen couldn’t keep from self destructing.
courtesy of fangraphs.com
The series would leave Rangers fans exacerbated to say the least.
“Of all the miserable, sickening gut-punches the Texas Rangers have dealt to my person over the years, today