Even though Manny Ramirez is in a slump, there’s no questioning his overall offensive value to the Red Sox.
There is, however, a question as to if that offensive value at his advanced age, plus the baggage coming from “Manny being Manny,” is worth $20 million dollars. Should the Red Sox pick up his option for next year, or should they move on? I don’t profess to answer that question, at least not yet, but there is something to be said for the Sox cutting Manny loose and moving on.
Should the Red Sox continue to juggle the four-man outfield rotation efficiently so that Coco Crisp is able to get enough reps to keep him from going Jay Payton on us (although he is certainly unhappy) then we could enter next year sans-Manny with arguably the best defensive outfield in the major leagues with Jacoby Ellsbury in left, Coco in center and J.D. Drew in right.
The power issue does come into play because who would back David Ortiz up? All due respect to Manny, he at this point in time statistically is not a clear cleanup hitter. Last year, Manny checked in at a .493 SLG in his age-35 year. In this year, his age-36 year, he’s at .489. I hope (wish I could say expect) that number to go up, but it’s remarkably consistent with last year’s.
On the other hand, Kevin Youkilis’ numbers last year checked in at a .453 SLG and it’s gone up this year to a .561 SLG in his age-29 year. I am absolutely leery of Youkilis’ decline in the second half, but I question whether Youkilis can match, possibly even exceed, Manny’s output the next three years. If we all feel he can, then why wouldn’t Youkilis make a capable replacement for Manny in the cleanup hole?
The lineup would look something like: LF Ellsbury, 2B Dustin Pedroia, DH Ortiz, 1B Youkilis, RF Drew, 3B Mike Lowell, C Jason Varitek, CF Coco Crisp, SS Julio Lugo… and believe it or not, Crisp and Lugo, at least through the first quarter of the 2008 season, make a good case for being higher in the order: Crisp is at .287/.316/.444, showing some increased power and Lugo is at .292/.354/.340, showing an ability to get on base.
A move of this nature would require a radical shift in thinking. No longer would we wait around for the three-run jimmy jack, but frankly, we haven’t done that for a few years now. The 2003 and 2004 offense spoiled us, and despite decreasing our offensive output in order to increase our pitching, defense and speed, we currently rank second in OPS at .809 (Chicago Cubs at .812) and last year ranked third at an .806 OPS (NYY .829, PHI .812). Clearly, losing Manny wouldn’t put us in the bottom third of the majors, perhaps not even in the middle third.
Our defense gets a massive upgrade, our speed gets a massive upgrade. Then there’s the intangible parts of it. In these circles, “Manny being Manny” is a phenomenon not only tolerated, but embraced. We laugh when Manny high-fives a fan in the middle of a double-play. We write off his prancing at home plate as something all sluggers do. We accept his baserunning blunders, saying you have to give some to get some.
Manny Ramirez is a coach’s nightmare. He asks for days off when the team is undermanned. He daydreams on the basepaths. He waits for the ball to roll back after clanging off the outfield wall and sometimes ends up having to run to the ball when it doesn’t roll back in the direction he expects or if it doesn’t roll fast enough. He’s more preoccupied with cutting off fellow outfielders and making sidearm flips that put Lugo out of position rather than making sound, fundamental decisions. He blows off appointments and giggles like a child when asked about them. He sells cars and grills on eBay rather than making sure he’s prepared for the season.
I say all this not to bash Manny, because I think Manny is a gifted hitter that was worth every penny up until last year. I think Manny will make a great DH for the Angels next year. I certainly won’t shed a tear if he returns as our left-fielder next year, because that means that we still have an offensive force and come on, we’ve certainly learned over the past eight years how to adapt and deal with his antics, right?
But what about the positives of his departure? His lack of focus is gone. We get a more fundamentally sound team. We’d lose offense over the lineup I presented above, but we haven’t even factored in the possibility we’d go get offense elsewhere (such as trading Mike Lowell and signing Mark Teixeira). We’d get $20 million to play with at a position of our choosing (Bobby Abreu, Rafael Furcal, Ben Sheets, Francisco Rodriguez, Brad Penny, C.C. Sabathia and more).
Again, I can’t answer the question as to what the Sox would be best served doing. Maybe he gets hot and finishes with a .600 SLG and wins the MVP. The answer’s pretty obvious then, isn’t it? But what if he replicates his numbers last year? What if his lack of focus costs us a game (as it has before)? Manny’s option for next year isn’t as clear cut as it can be, and I don’t envy Theo for having to deliberate that choice, especially when the choice that may end up being right is also the choice that would engender bad P.R.
What I can say, however, is that there’s a certain appeal to a team next year without (in his words) the best left-fielder ever for the Red Sox.
Now that I’ve horrified you all with thoughts of a post-Manny world, what do you think? What course of action are you leaning to now, and why? Are we better served trading Coco Crisp now for a better bullpen arm and worrying about Manny later, or should we look ahead to cutting Manny loose?