As Paul and I looked back on the first half of the season in last night’s podcast, we found ourselves surprisingly critical of the team’s component performance despite it’s 49-32 record and lead in the A.L. East.
Our first glance grades for the team may seem more appropriate for a team that is sitting closer to a .540 winning percentage, 5 games back of the division lead (hmm…..Yankees?) than a team with one of the best records in baseball. How can the statistically best offensive team in the American League rank only a B or B-? Clearly we don’t grade on the curve.
But a closer look merits individual grades across the board closer to average than exceptional. The aggregate performance of that individual compilation however, is much closer to exceptional in reality. At the same time, this team has better baseball in them than they have played in the first half of the season. There is room for improvement and given the results thus far, that is bad news for the rest of the American League.
While Paul and I only went through the larger buckets on the show, my full mid-season report card backs up the concept that this team can improve on it’s 49 first half wins coming home.
Let’s go around the horn and dole out some first half grades.
Batters:
Kevin Youkilis: A
When you have nearly matched your season long expectation in home runs in the first half of the season and are hitting above .300, you get an A. Plain and simple. Youk has been better offensively than anyone expected. It’s hard to believe that he has an outside chance at 30 home runs this season.
Dustin Pedroia: B
A recent hot streak kept him from dropping a half letter to B-. For stretches this season Pedroia has been exactly what we saw from him last year and came to expect this season. But that awful stretch in the middle of the first half can’t go unnoticed. Pedroia’s productivity at the two hole may be the offensive key to this team in the second half. Big innings happen when he gets on base with Jacoby for the big guns.
Julio Lugo: D
So close to an F, but I just couldn’t do it considering he’s got his average at .274 which we would take all season long. But in every aspect of the game he’s a D- at best right now. Luckily, he isn’t costing us too many games…..yet…gulp.
Mike Lowell: B+
When we acquired Lowell, these numbers were best case scenario in many people’s eyes. He’s proving last year wasn’t a fluke and that his contract wasn’t a mistake.
Jason Varitek: B-
For a while, Tek was looking like he was in the middle of an offensive revival. Then he regressed to the mean and beyond. If offense alone was guiding my grade Tek would net a C. But for all the intangibles he brings he becomes the most invaluable B- player around.
Manny Ramirez: B+
It looked like Manny was headed for an MVP type season. But his numbers have regressed back to where we expected Manny to settle in when we began the season. Manny 2008 has been prone to hot streaks so this grade could move before the season ends.
J.D. Drew: A
J.D. Drew gets the gold star for being head of the class during the first half of the season. When you look at production alone, he’s an A. When you compare production to expectations, you have to considering topping that off with a “+”.
Jacoby Ellsbury: B
Ellsbury’s stats aren’t gaudy, until you look at stolen bases (on pace for 68) and runs scored (on pace for 106). He hasn’t been as awe inspiring (i.e. Ichiro-esque) at the plate as he was at the end of last season, but boy can that boy run.
Coco Crisp: B-
At least you know what you are going to get. Look how close the community projection is to Crisp’s projected year end totals.
David Ortiz: Incomplete (B for what we got)
If he didn’t get hurt his rate stats would have kept climbing and he would be nearing 20 home runs and sixty RBI. That would have been A- worthy given the hole he started in.
Alex Cora: C
Where’s Lowrie? Cora’s just not adding the value needed to block Jed from a roster spot anymore. (Lowrie would get an A- for his brief stint).
Sean Casey: B+
How can a man batting .365 not get an A? While Casey has been extremely valuable filling the corner infield role, there’s not much meat on that .365 bone. Still, B+ for overall above average performance thus far and for keeping Brandon Moss (C+, he did hit the game tier in game one of the season) off first base.
Kevin Cash: B-
Mirabelli would have been a more expensive C+.
Pitchers:
The pitchers won’t get fun charts, just because I don’t think that doubling current wins and losses really tells us anything and ERA is still a victim of sample size. One bad outing could move it pretty heavily (just ask Daisuke). If you want to see actual performance for pitchers thus far click here, for community projections go here.
Josh Beckett: B
7-5 isn’t overwhelming and an ERA of 3.73 isn’t dominating but a 1.11 WHIP and 9+ strike outs per nine innings tell a different story. I think Beckett will man up in the second half.
Jon Lester: A
Johan Who-tana? 6-3 with a 3.13 ERA and a no-hitter? Who knew? As I mentioned in the podcast, I think there’s serious All-Star possibility for Lester if he holds the line in the last two starts before the break.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: B+
I really want to give Dice K a B- but he’s 8-1 with what was before his first start back from injury a sparkling ERA. That has to count for something right? More than any pitcher on the staff, how far this team goes could lie on Matsuzaka’s ability to be a #2-A option with Lester.
Tim Wakefield: B
The old man just keeps truckin’. His ERA will find its way to 4.00 and his record won’t deviate too much from .500, but he eats innings and he keeps you in games that he starts. Not many teams can get that out of the #4 spot of the rotation.
#5 Starter: A+
Overall the combination of Clay Buchholz (C+), Bartolo Colon (B+), and Justin Masterson (A-) has been 10-6 this season with an ERA of 4.37. That alone could account for a huge swing in the team’s record. With a 5-11 #5 spot, the Red Sox record would be 44-37.
Jonathan Papelbon: B+
Its hard to live up to Superman’s standards….but when you are the best in the game, your standard for an “A” is unfairly high.
Hideki Okajima: C+
His ERA is a respectable 3.00, but inherited runners scored and blown save opportunities tell the story of Oki’s ineffectiveness during the first half of the season.
Manny Delcarmen: B
MDC’s recent success and ascension to the vacated role in the eighth inning play heavily in overshadowing his rocky start. This was close to a B-. But momentum clearly played a factor in giving him the little bump needed to get over the top.
Javier Lopez/David Aardsma: B+
Quietly both Lopez and Aardsma have put forth seasons that anchor a bullpen. Often times they get the innings that can swing games from sure wins into losses or keep the Red Sox offense in games that lead to their twelve “last at bat” wins. You can’t ask more from the tail of your bullpen.
Craig Hansen: C+
How long can the verdict stay out on Mr. Hansen? Flashes of dominance, horrible luck, some downright bad pitching….I just don’t know what to expect anymore.
Mike Timlin: D
I’m pulling for him…I always will…but Chris Smith looks like a better option right now.
Overall: B
This team has played well, there is no doubt of that. They are on pace for 98 wins, more than most people projected at the beginning of the year, but you just don’t feel like you’ve seen the best of them yet.
Unlike last year where they had a ten game cushion, the Rays and the Yankees are nipping on the Sox heels. They will need to pull out their A game in the second half to put some distance between them and their competition in the A.L. East. That all starts this week…
