Talk about your loaded question: should the Red Sox trade Kevin Youkilis for Mark Teixeira?
The logic? The Red Sox upgrade their long-term power output and put them in position to, perhaps, jettison Manny Ramirez after the year. The Red Sox do not have many holes and a lot of depth at one particular position that interests a lot of teams: starting pitching. In addition, they have a nice stable of outfielders and some intriguing infield prospects as well. The Red Sox could easily outbid any team for any player, but if, and only if, the Sox were so inclined. Teixeira, to me, represents a player worth the cost.
Teixeira is an impending free agent and will certainly command a large investment, doubly so with Scott Boras at the helm. These factors are what persuaded the Texas Rangers to trade him to the Atlanta Braves last year, and the Braves are a franchise that cannot match the wallet of Rangers owner Tom Hicks, so the possibility that he opens next year in an uniform not of the Braves design is rather high.
The Braves, expected to be contenders, are instead two games under .500 at 40-42 and sit 3.5 games out of first. To be sure, the season is far from over when the margin is that slim, so a trade of Teixeira would almost certainly not happen unless the Braves fall out of the race moreso than they already have.
Those are the reasons to trade Teixeira. After all, if you’re a long shot to make the playoffs, why let your big slugger walk without getting pieces in return?
Truth be told, why wouldn’t the Braves make this deal, even if they stayed in the hunt?
Part of what makes this trade a bit curious for the Red Sox is that the Sox would actually lose production. Youkilis is off to a hot start at .313/.381/.548 and is projected to hit 27 homers. He has impeccable defense and appears poised to win the Gold Glove at the position two years in the running. He is 29-year old and cost-controlled for the next two years before hitting free agency.
The negatives? Well, for one, he suffered a rough second-half decline last year (.238/.356/.391, to be exact) and there’s no telling if it will repeat itself again this year. Second, Youk is what they call a late bloomer and this is only his third year as a starter, a gig he got when he was 27.
Lastly, while I have zero data points to back this up, I will tell you that I have read that Youkilis’ career track and body type make him a prime candidate to flame out quickly. In other words, it took him a while to reach the majors. He finally did, his star shone bright for a while, but he’ll soon collapse. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Youkilis will not be a starter by the time he finally hits free agency.
Texeira, on the other hand, is one year younger and seems to be in it for the long haul. He bests Youkilis in the power department historically (.285/.371/.534 to .285/.383/.453) but is actually lagging behind Youk this year at .277/.374/.497. Defensively, he won the Gold Glove at first two years preceding Youkilis’ reign and would have probably nabbed a third straight A.L. Gold Glove had he not been traded.
Teixeira would solve a nagging problem of power. David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez are no spring chickens, and Tex can certainly bash the homers. Since his 2003 rookie campaign, here are his homer totals through 2007: 26, 38, 43, 33, 30. A switch-hitter, he would add extreme versatility to the lineup. As good as Youkilis can be, Teixeira has him beat in terms of ceiling and power.
For the Red Sox, the question becomes: is this Kevin Youkilis’ high-water point? Can he sustain this over the rest of the year and the next few years to come? This is where the mistress called Reasonable Doubt comes into play (hat tip to Harlan Coben for the phrase). This may be the time to move him.
Of course, the Braves are going to ask for far more than Youkilis — as they should. Fortunately, the Red Sox will have no problem rounding out the trade. One person the Red Sox could dangle with the Braves instantly lapping it up is Michael Bowden, a true stud of a pitching prospect that seems to be blocked at the major league level. Would those two be enough to land Tex? Maybe, maybe not. But the third piece, if needed, would be largely irrelevant.
The Braves get a cost-controlled player for the next two years to replace Teixeira at first and a stud pitching prospect to work into the team as Tom Glavine makes his final victory lap.
I realize it may be heresy to actually contemplate trading “Youuuuuuk.” his “grit” and hard-nosed way of playing the game, but as any general manager (or at least the good ones) will tell you, emotion cannot be part of the equation. And if you take emotion out of the equation, Youkilis becomes eminently tradeable.
All in all, this trade may inevitably happen, but through different means: Teixeira signs as a free agent and Youkilis is either moved to left-field to compensate for the departure of Manny Ramirez or Youk is traded.
I asked Alex Remington of Chop n’ Change for his input as to the proposed trade. Follow the link to see his full thoughts, but check out this quote of his: “As far as I’m concerned, we’d be robbing them blind.” Hmm… would they?
Of course, I’m not naive enough to think that this trade actually has a chance in hell of it happening. But it is intriguing, nonetheless. And does it make sense? I think so. Do you?
