Last year, on November 6th, 2007, I released my top 50 Free Agents rankings and predictions. You can check out the archive on my old blog if you are interested.This year, a week later than usual, I’ve again ranked and predicted the destinations for the top 50 free agents of this year’s free agent class. 2009 is very top-heavy, and there aren’t many sexy names in the bottom 25, but that only made everything that much more unpredictable. Please note I also think the most action this off-season will be made through trades rather than big free agent contracts.
Normal
0
false
false
false
EN-US
X-NONE
X-NONE
MicrosoftInternetExplorer4
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:”Table Normal”;
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:””;
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin-top:0in;
mso-para-margin-right:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt;
mso-para-margin-left:0in;
line-height:115%;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:”Calibri”,”sans-serif”;
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:”Times New Roman”;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}
50: Chad
Cordero – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Signing Cordero would seem to make sense for LA, who are always looking to
upgrade their bullpen. I anticipate they will let their all-star closer K-Rod
walk this offseason, and Cordero could close if injury or ineffectiveness would
make Jose Arrendondo a libability for the team. Cordero was great with the Nats
early in his career, but doesn’t really have closer stuff, ala Joe Borowski. He
could thrive in a setup role on a good team, and LA seems like a good fit for
him. Runner-up: St. Louis Cardinals
49: Ken
Griffey, Jr – Seattle Mariners
Ken Griffey Jr is approaching his Willie Mays on the Mets days, when a
great slugger is reduced to a shell of his former self playing in uniforms that
never have, and never will, look right on him. I really have no idea where
Junior will end up or how often he’ll get the chance to play next year. I am
only casting a sentimental vote that Seattle, who has nothing to play for next
year anyway, will let The Kid replace Raul Ibanez and finish his career where
it all started in The Emerald City.
Runner-up: I hope retirement
48: Rocco Baldelli – Tampa Bay Rays
There has been some rumors lately of Baldelli leaving St. Petersburg and
was even rumored to be coveted by the Red Sox. However, after the organization
he was drafted by stood through him during his rehab from his extremely rare
medical condition, I would expect Baldelli to have a sense of loyalty to the
Rays. Expect him to resign, and hope for a full healthy year. Few remember, but
Rocco was a sure-thing before injuries took away most of his speed and stamina.
Runner-up: Philadelphia Phillies
47: Kevin Millar – Los Angeles
Dodgers
It seems for quite some time now, LA has been building their team on
veterans with a yearly infusion of a new face from the minor leagues. With
Nomar Garciaparra a free agent and Jeff Kent likely retiring, Kevin Millar
would fit well with this team. He can play good defense or even platoon with
James Loney and provide some “glue” in the clubhouse. Millar only has
a few seasons left in his career, but I wouldn’t expect a multi-year deal here.
There is a chance he’ll try to land a full-time gig somewhere, but that seems
unlikely. Runner-up: San Diego Padres
46: Chan Ho Park – Los Angeles
Dodgers
From 1997-2001 Chan Ho Park won double digits games every year as a starter
for the Dodgers. Then he signed a monster contract with the Rangers, was Barry
Zito-bad, and then fell into relative obscurity until last year when he was
able to revive his career with LA. I imagine Park will resign on the cheap,
since he has already made over $81 million in his career, and no other team
should be stupid enough to offer him anything, since he only pitches well in
LA. The Dodgers could use the innings from the pen. Runner-up: Retirement
45: Brad Wilkerson – Toronto Blue
Jays
I am continually biased toward Brad Wilkerson, who I saw playing in the
minors for the Harrisburg Senators. I’ve always felt he never lived up to the
expectations he created mashing balls on City Island and the early promise he
showed once he made it to the show. He is still a great fourth option who can
hit for power and little else, and is still only 32 years old. Toronto has one
of the best outfields in the game, but little depth behind their stars.
Wilkerson would be a good fit here. Runner-up:
Pittsburgh Pirates
44: Nick Punto – Cincinnati Reds
Nick Punto needs to make a career decision this year. He had one good
season as a starter but at 31 isn’t going to get much better. It would appear
to be in his best interest to sign in the super-utility role he has excelled in
for Minnesota last season. However, this may be his last chance to get a
relatively big contract and an opportunity to prove himself as a starter. There
is not a lot of depth at shortstop this year, so he may get that chance. The
Reds seem like a good fit here. Runner-up:
Kansas City Royals
43: Jeremy Affeldt – Milwaukee Brewers
I’ll go out on a limb and say its unlikely the Brewers are going to bring
back Eric Gagne. That being said, the Brewers will need some bodies in the
bullpen and this isn’t the best year for those types of pitchers. There are a
lot of average starters available, but Affeldt is the one pitcher I think could
make a difference in the pen for a team in 2009. His ERA has improved the past
two years, and if he stays in the National League, I think that trend will
continue. Runner-up: Oakland A’s
42: Damaso Marte – New York
Yankees
Editor’s Note: I made this pick before it was news that the Yankees are
likely to sign Marte to a three year-deal. I was not scared when they declined
his option. Runner-up: New York Mets
41: Juan Cruz – Chicago White
Sox
Juan Cruz had one of his best statistical seasons for the Diamondbacks last
year and will be looking to cash in this year. The Diamondbacks have a ton of
bullpen depth, and losing Cruz won’t have much of an impact on their team in
2009. The White Sox bullpen was good last year, but I would imagine they’ll try
to sign an arm for middle relief/set-up this offseason. Then again, if Cruz
pitches like he did in 2005 with Oakland (7+ ERA), we’ll have a long list of
fun Ozzie moments to look forward to. Runner-up:
Milwaukee Brewers
40: Jason Varitek – Houston
Astros
And so it ends. My gut feeling is somehow, someway the Red Sox will resign Varitek.
But my head tells me there is no way that is going to happen in a Scott Boras
world. Houston is a team that doesn’t really expect anything from their catcher
offensively, Brad Ausmus has been able to have a career because of that belief.
Tek would provide better defense and even a little more pop than the incumbent.
Tek could make Houston’s young starters better and be a role model in the
clubhouse and community. Best wishes. Runner-up:
Boston Red Sox
39: Odalis Perez – Washington
Nationals
DC’s Finest are years away from contending and continue to make puzzling
front office decisions, from draft picks to contract extensions. For this team
to resemble anything respectable in 2009, they will need to fill their starting
rotation with dependable arms to help take the burden off their young starters.
Perez makes sense here, if nothing else if he an affordable veteran who can eat
some innings for the Nationals. Runner-up:
Pittsburgh Pirates
38: Brad Penny – Milwaukee
Brewers
Why change the status-quo too much, right? If you are going to lose one
spectacular when healthy but always an injury risk-style pitcher, just sign
another to take his place. There is no doubt Brad Penny can be great, just two
years ago he finished second in Cy Young voting. Milwaukee is going to lose
both Sabathia and Sheets this off-season, and will need to go after an ace on
the cheap. Penny shouldn’t command as much as the top tier starters in this
year’s class. Runner-up: New York Yankees
37: Eric Hinske – Philadelphia
Phillies
Eric Hinske is another super-utility style player who is available as a
free agent. Hinske has played well for the past two seasons with Boston and
Tampa Bay, and the former rookie of the year is still only 31 years old. I
could see him moving to the National League after spending his entire career in
the AL East. Philadelphia, which lacks depth in the infield and outfield
positions, would be a terrific fit for Hinske, who hit 20 homeruns last year
for Tampa Bay. Runner-up: Tampa Bay
Rays
36: Jon Garland – Pittsburgh
Pirates
The buzz around the Hot Stove is that the Pirates are dying for a veteran
starter to sign a low cost, multi-year deal. Ha, which team isn’t right?
Anyway, I think Garland fits the bill here, he has pitched on winning teams for
most of his career and would be able to help teach the young Pirates pitchers
the right way of doing things. He could benefit from a switch to the National
League, instead of the offense-heavy American league. Garland has won
double-digit games every year since 2002. Runner-up:
Milwaukee Brewers
35:
Braden Looper – Cleveland Indians
Looper is another solid if not spectacular reliever who is available this
offseason. After a career year in 2004 with the Mets, Looper has been
consistent but never great the past three years with St. Louis. Cleveland will
need to add some arms in the bullpen, and Looper makes sense since he won’t be
needed to play a significant role. I have him rated pretty high here based on
my prediction, I think a change of scenery to the American League will help
Looper regain some confidence. Runner-up:
Boston Red Sox
34: Mark Grudzielanek – Arizona
Diamondbacks
Grudzielanek is an underappreciated 2nd baseman, a career .290 career
hitter who made just $4 million last year with Kansas City. He would fit as a
cheap, veteran leader for the Diamondbacks, who need more professional hitters
to surround their free-swinging young stars. There is always an outside chance
that, at this point in his career, Grudzielanek could accept a utility role
with a contender. Runner-up: Boston Red
Sox
33: Ivan Rodriguez – Boston Red
Sox
As mentioned earlier, I do not anticipate the Red Sox resigning Varitek.
However, I also don’t expect them to go into 2009 without a veteran backup plan
no matter if they trade for another backstop or not. It’s scary to think about
how much the pitching staff might suffer under the offensive-minded Pudge, but
if he is willing to accept a one year deal, it could be a good deal for both
sides. Runner-up: New York Mets
32: Paul Byrd – San Francisco
Giants
Byrd will get offers to stay in Boston as well as return to Cleveland, but
I have a feeling he’ll switch over the National League on a two-year deal with
San Francisco. Byrd will be able to provide syringes, I mean, experience and
stability to the back-end of the San Francisco’s starting rotation. Still at
effective pitcher at 38, Byrd pitched great down the stretch last season after
it was learned he was tipping his pitches in early 2008. Runner-up: Pittsburgh Pirates
31: Mark Kotsay – Seattle
Mariners
Kotsay is another veteran who has solid during the end of the regular
season and in the postseason for Boston and will look to cash in for 2009.
Ideally, every member of Red Sox Nation would love Kotsay to come back and play
behind Youk, Drew, and Lowell, but Boston has compiled some pretty impressive
depth in the outfield and Lars Anderson may be ready to play 1B by midseason.
The Mariners would be a good fit for Kotsay, he could replace Ibanez in the
outfield or give stability at first place, allowing Jeff Clement to play his
natural position behind the plate more often. Runner-up: St. Louis Cardinals
30: Edgar Renteria – St. Louis
Cardinals
There is no secret that Rafeal Furcal is the big prize this offseason at
shortstop, but I have a feeling Renteria is going to be the best the Cardinals
will do this year. Renteria is what he is, and always seems to play
better in the National League, so that’s a plus here. If he provides solid
defense and league average numbers for the club, they should be back in
contention for 2009. Or he’ll play like the Renteria of the American League and
be consistently booed until traded at midseason. Runner-up: San Francisco Giants
29: Trevor Hoffman – San Diego
Padres
Editor’s Note: News came out that San Diego has withdrawn their offer for
Hoffman and he will be pitching elsewhere in 2009. However, I am not going to
change my pick, just chalk this one up in the loss column and pretend I never
wrote a paragraph about how its great to see such loyalty between player and
team in today’s sports world. Never happened.
Runner-up: Detroit Tigers
28: John Smoltz – Atlanta
Braves
A lot has been said about where John Smoltz will play in 2009. He has told
the media he would be willing to play somewhere else, and last year said he
would accept a trade if it was in the team’s best interest. However, Smoltz
only has a year, maybe two, left in his arm and I can’t imagine him finishing
it anywhere but Atlanta. Runner-up:
Retirement
27: Oliver Perez – Chicago
Cubs
Although I believe they will resign Kerry Wood, I think the Cubs will
struggle to resign some of their other starters, leaving a hole in the middle
of their rotation. Enter Oliver Perez, the solid if not spectacular pitcher who
is still only 27. Perez has won double digit games for the Mets the past two
years, averaging around 180 IP. If he can duplicate those numbers pitching in
the fourth spot for Chicago, he’ll be a steal. Runner-up: Pittsburgh Pirates
26: Kerry Wood – Chicago Cubs
Editor’s Note: As with Hoffman, I will not change this pick although its
obvious Wood will not sign with the Cubs at this point. Runner-up: Texas Rangers
TOP 100
– Here is a list of players, in no specific order, that round out my top 100
free agents.
Mark Loretta, Juan Uribe, Bob Howry, Brian Giles, Alan Embree, Brandon Lyon,
Dennys Reyes, Eric Gagne, Frank Thomas, Garret Anderson, Greg Maddux, Gregg
Zaun, Hank Blalock, Jeff Kent, Joe Beimel, Luis Gonzalez, Miguel Olivo, Mike
Cameron, Paul Lo Duca, Salomon Torres, Trever Miller, Scott Podsednik, Adam
Everett, Al Reyes, Carl Pavano, Jason Isringhausen, Corey Patterson, Daryle
Ward, David Eckstein, Doug Mientkiewicz, Gabe Kapler, Guillermo Mota, Jason
Jennings, Jason Michaels, Jay Payton, Jerry Hairston Jr., Jim Edmonds, Juan
Rincon, Kevin Mench, Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins, Mark Mulder, Mark Prior,
Matt Clement, Mike Hampton, Nomar Garciaparra, Pedro Martinez, Richie Sexson,
Sean Casey, Tadahito Iguchi, Darren Oliver, Doug Brocail, Russ Springer, Brian
Shouse, David Weathers, Moises Alou, Aaron Boone, Alex Cintron, Alex Cora,
Arthur Rhodes, Bartolo Colon, Brad Ausmus, Brendan Donnelly, Casey Fossum,
Cesar Izturis, Chad Fox, Chad Moeller, Chris Gomez, Cliff Floyd, Craig Counsell,
Craig Monroe, Curt Schilling, Damion Easley, David Ross, Eddie Guardado, Emil
Brown, Felipe Lopez, Glendon Rusch, Greg Norton, Henry Blanco, Horacio Ramirez,
Jamey Wright, Jason Johnson, Javier Valentin, Joe Borowski, Joe Crede, Johnny
Estrada, Jon Lieber, Jose Vidro, Josh Bard, Josh Fogg, Juan Rivera, Julian
Tavarez, Keith Foulke, Kenny Rogers, Kenshin Kawakami, Kip Wells, Koji Uehara,
Kris Benson, Livan Hernandez, Luis Ayala, Mark Hendrickson, Matt Herges, Matt
Wise, Michael Barrett, Miguel Cairo, Mike Lamb, Mike Lincoln, Mike Sweeney,
Mike Timlin, Omar Vizquel, Orlando Hernandez, Paul Bako, Ramon Vazquez, Ray
Durham, Rich Aurilia, Rodrigo Lopez, Roger Clemens, Ron Villone, Rudy Seanez,
Russell Branyan, Scott Eyre, Sergio Mitre, Shawn Chacon, Shawn Estes, Sidney
Ponson, Toby Hall, Tom Glavine, Tom Gordon, Tomohiro Nioka, Tony Clark, Will
Ohman, Willie Bloomquist
Normal
0
false
false
false
EN-US
X-NONE
X-NONE
MicrosoftInternetExplorer4
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:”Table Normal”;
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:””;
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin-top:0in;
mso-para-margin-right:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt;
mso-para-margin-left:0in;
line-height:115%;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:”Calibri”,”sans-serif”;
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:”Times New Roman”;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}