Julio Lugo has been the whipping boy for Red Sox failures these last two years. Can we expect him to contribute in 2009? Everyone has pretty much put Lugo into the utility infielder’s position, but could he surprise and retain his starting shortstop position? First, let’s take a look back.
LOOKING BACK
When I examined xBABIP and IF/F for several Red Sox players, it was found that Lugo was lucky in earning a .312 BABIP while his xBABIP is .284. This is all a fancy way of saying that his .268 batting average, while around his career norm of .271, was unlucky.
Lugo did improve his plate disclipine drastically last year, earning 34 walks in 261 at-bats. In 2007, he had 48 walks in 570 at-bats. His best year for walks came in 2005 for the Tampa Bay then-Devil Rays when he had 61 in 616 at-bats. He finished with a line of .295/.362/.403.
On the flip side, he has lost much of his power. His line drive percentage ranged from 18.0 to 22.2 percent from 2004 to 2006. His groundball percentage skyrocketed to 59.5 percent in 2008 after a low of 39.3 percent for the Dodgers in part-time duty in 2006. (This statistic was mitigated by a high of 15.6 percent infield flies for the Dodgers.)
In the field, he makes his fair share of errors but also has good range. In 2007, he got to 55 balls out of his zone, good enough for 11th among all qualifying shortstops. (J.J. Hardy led the field with 72.) His UZR was also 4.4 in 2007, but that regressed in 2008 to -1.6, although his career rests at 5.3.
So, what does Fangraphs value him at? He was worth $4 million in 2008 and $3.3 million in 2007 (as I previously mentioned here, I think FanGraphs’ using free agent valuation makes the salaries too high, so these numbers in my estimation should be lower). This is a far cry from what he’s actually pulling in, which is $9 million.
LOOKING FORWARD
Okay, we’ve looked back. Now let’s look forward a month or so. Is Julio Lugo the backup or is Jed Lowrie? First, let’s find out what he’s been up to.
[Lugo is] serious about competing for the shortstop job. He opted out
of winter ball to devote his time to conditioning and has gained 20
pounds of muscle. Jed Lowrie will be challenged. (Boston Globe)
I tried to find a year-by-year comparison of Lugo’s weight to see if we could figure out what effect adding 20 pounds of muscle could have. I was out of luck, but did find that for the last few years, Lugo has weighed 175 and his introduction into major league baseball had him checking in at 165.
Since players tend to lose weight over the course of the season, if we assume Lugo lost 10 pounds to drop to 165, adding 20 pounds of muscle will put him at 185 pounds. If this is in addition to his 175, he’s at 195.
What does the extra 20 pounds of muscle mean?
He could lose a step in the field because adding pounds reduces mobility and speed. He could lose a couple extra stolen bases as well. However, adding 20 pounds of muscle doesn’t necessarily mean this. He could actually find himself faster, being able to be more explosive with his legs. Jury’s out on this one, but the general rule of thumb is that an increase in weight gives you a decrease in speed.
Where the muscle will really need to do its talking is on offense. Hopefully it prevents him from wearing down as the season goes on and allows him to channel more power in his back leg, hips and left hand to drive the ball more often.
The question is…
Can he beat out Jed Lowrie?
Lowrie clearly showed that he was proficient in the field — more than was given credit for — and showed a propensity for driving in the batters that needed driving in. He hit for a .258 average and .400 slugging percentage, but it was revealed he was hampered by a wrist injury all season long that sapped him of power, so it’s all that much more impressive what he accomplished.
It will be a tough battle for Lugo to overcome Lowrie, but if he can show increased power in spring training, it may pay off. In the end, whoever loses the battle to be the starting shortstop will receive enough at-bats to stay sharp as the position should likely be contentious all year.