The 2nd Annual ESPN rankings of the top systems and top prospects by Keith Law were officially released this morning. Catching a lot of fans by surprise was the generous ranking at #7. I really can’t quibble too much, however, as you could have made a case for every team in that 7-12 range. It’s really just a matter of opinion, and the debate gets brought up a few times every year. Do you prefer a system with more impact major league ready talent or one that’s deep with some impact talent at the top and a lot of low-level high-upside guys filling out the top 10. Keith understands that, and provided some valid reasoning:
Probably an aggressive ranking, but their 2008 draft class has the potential to be one of the best. They have become more aggressive at going over slot to obtain premium players in the draft and have become more active internationally. Their system probably had more prospect depth on 2008 short-season rosters than any other but Texas’.
Emphasis mine. While it’s certainly feasible logic, I don’t think you can accurately grade the 2008 draft class quite yet. Not that Law was doing that, as he clearly stated it has the “potential”, but I don’t know if you can precisely rank the Sox system over teams with more top-heavy systems like the Giants and to an extent, the Orioles. Of course, there’s the counter-argument that guys like Pete Hissey (whose ranked 25th at SoxProspects) would probably rank in the 10-15 range for other teams in that 7-12 range. So while the Sox have graduated a lot of their top prospects, they’ve quickly reloaded through the amateur draft and the international market by adding a lot of depth, and a lot of high-ceiling guys.
7. Lars Anderson: The best of a fairly deep class of first base prospects in the minors right now, separating himself by his relative youth and advanced approach. Anderson has outstanding plate discipline for a prospect his age – or any age, really, but his relative youth makes it much more impressive. His career OBP sits at .404, and you can see a cerebral approach to the strike zone. As a hitter, Anderson has a high setup and makes a big, quick first move down to get into hitting position; once he gets started, he’s very short to the ball and makes a lot of hard contact with good backspin. He has the swing and physical potential to hit 30-plus home runs, but is still working out which pitches to pull and which pitches to take to the opposite field.
52. Michael Bowden: Throws strikes, average stuff, half a year away from contributing. Describes his arsenal (88-91 FB that touches 93 but gets straighter the harder he throws it, very good change that tumbles, 12-6 curve, slurvy slider). Gives up a lot of fly balls and could be homer prone. Hides the ball well, but his delivery limits his ability to pitch side-to-side and is partially why the slider’s not great. Projects as a future fourth starter despite his average stuff because he throws strikes and has good deception.
81. Nick Hagadone: FB was average at UW, but he worked it up as high as 97 before his elbow finally got hurt. Full recovery expected and an April return is possible. “Assuming his stuff comes back” will have at least two pitches in 92-95 FB and above-average slider, good for being a “devastating” lefty out of the pen, or if he improves control or develops CH, could be a # 2/3 starter. If healthy would have been top 40.
90. Junichi Tazawa: Isn’t ready for the Majors yet, but could start in AA and be up by season’s end. Looks like a reliever right now with low 90’s FB and plus splitter. FB command needs improvement and slider is “fringe-average” at best. Spots off-speed well, but needs to have better FB control in upper-half, common to Japanese imports. Projects as middle of rotation starter if FB command or slider (or curve) improve, “which would put him toward the middle of this list rather than toward the back.”
94. Daniel Bard: Recaps the fell in draft-brutal 2007-redeemed in 2008 story to start. FB 95-98 with good run and some sink. Mid-80’s slider is basically show-me pitch. The concern is that he’s “passive” for a pitcher with his stuff. Reacts to bad things happening by pitching away from contact rather than challenging hitters. Needs to develop maturity if he’s going to be an “ace reliever” in the Majors.
Overall, pretty spot on by Law. However, Josh Reddick must have just missed the Top 100. The explanation:
Josh Reddick: Strong kid with a plus arm, great plate coverage and line-drive power. He takes a very short path to the ball and whips the bat through the zone, so when he makes contact, it’s hard. His lack of plate discipline was his undoing in Double-A, unfortunately, despite everything else he brings to the table.
While true, I don’t agree that it’s enough to keep him out of the Top 100. I wish scouts would pay closer attention to a players swing rather than his K/BB ratio when determining how he’ll handle advanced pitching. Besides which, I’m afraid if Reddick did sacrifice power for a few walks, he wouldn’t be nearly as valuable as he is now.