Fire Brand explains Win Values

Baseball has forever been a game of statistics and over the past few decades, sabermetrics have taken this passion way beyond batting average and on-base percentage. Growing up, my family always said all you needed to do to be successful was to "build a better mouse-trap," meaning, if you can find a way to improve on existing information, to make something more efficient, you'll find success follows. Statistics in baseball are the new mouse-trap; for the most part, the numbers being used haven't changed for 100 years, they are just being manipulated in a way to provide a better benchmark to evaluate a player's value and/or worth. The end goal never changes: a better mouse-trap still kills the mouse in the end, and a better statistic still just evaluates a player, but the means or accuracy of doing so makes it special.

The problem with the evolution of statistics in baseball has been the public acceptance of them. I'd be just as willing to bet that Woodrow Wilson and his friends talked about Babe Ruth's batting average in 1915 as I would bet that Barack Obama won't discuss the VORP of David Ortiz in 2009. Some statistics resonate through the general public and become part of the casual fan's conversation, and some don't. The "stickiness" of a stat depends on how complicated it is to understand, calculate, or relate to something the average fan can appreciate.

The numbers being thrown around by stat heads these days are often hard to grasp. Even an easy concept, such as Batting Average on Ball In Play, can be misunderstood and misused, as I demonstrated during my fourth outfielder series. Okay, so we all agree that batting average is a horrible statistic to base the value of a player on, but what metric can we all agree on that makes sense? Fortunately for us, Dave Cameron over at FanGraphs, has put together an eight part series on Win Values.

Sorry Charlie

Lot’s of reasons are given when a player like Charlie Zinc slips away with dfa. He is “too old” of…

Vazquez claimed by Padres, Day by Rays

The San Diego Padres claimed starting pitcher Virgil Vazquez, 26, off waivers fromt he Red Sox today. Vazquez pitched 16.2 innings for the Detroit Tigers in 2007, amassing a 8.97 ERA in five games, three of them starts.The Red Sox had claimed Vazquez off waivers from the Tigers in October. The depth chart is updated.

UPDATE: Reliever Dewon Day was also claimed off waivers, this time by the Tampa Bay Rays. Day was claimed off waivers from the Chicago White Sox in October. He got lit up in 12 innings at the big league level in 2007. He has decent stuff but poor command.

Charlie Zink designated for assignment

Charlie Zink, the knuckleballer signed in 2002 after a recommendation from Luis Tiant, has been designated for assignment by the Boston Red Sox. Zink, who won 34 games over the past four seasons for Pawtucket and Portland, had his major league debut in 2008, giving up eight earned runs in just four and third innings.

It has long been speculated that Zink, 28, would be in the starting rotation for most teams and was only held back in Boston by Tim Wakefield. Not even Bernie Madoff could talk Boston's front office into start two knuckleballers in the rotation. Fire Brand wishes Zink the best, and hopes he gets an opportunity to prove himself with another team very soon. Preferably outside the AL East.

Sox sign Kotsay; Best depth ever?

According to the Boston Herald, the Boston Red Sox have signed Mark Kotsay to a one year, $1.5 million dollar deal plus incentives. Kotsay, who finished last season with the club but left as a free agent, was unable to find a starting job so decided to return to Boston. he will back-up Kevin Youkilis at first base, and also play the position when Youkilis relieves Mike Lowell. Kotsay is also insurance should recently signed fourth-outfielder Rocco Baldelli struggle with fatgiue or injuries this season.

Reasons why Manny will end up in NY; Biggest jerk in baseball?

Joe Loudmouth gives several reasons why Manny Ramirez will end up as a New York Yankee. My favorite:

In Cleveland they complained about him falling asleep on the bases. In Boston it was worse. Why does Manny run thru stop signs? How come he does not run out grounders? Why does he hang out at home plate and show up the pitcher on a towering blast? Manny has a proposal for Commissioner Selig. Make every at bat a home run derby and cut out this waste of time running. Manny has never spoken to the Commissioner, but he is sure he would be happy to go along. He must be a great guy as everyone calls him Bud and all of Manny's buds help him out.

Joe Loudmouth also is taking nominees for who should be named the biggest jerk in baseball; leave your comment with who it is!

Rocco Baldelli, John Smoltz signings are master strokes

Smoltz - y-its-mom (Flickr)

As we all know by now, the Boston Red Sox are on the cusp of signing outfielder Rocco Baldelli and starting pitcher John Smoltz to contracts. These are master strokes by general manager Theo Epstein.

All that's standing in the way of Penny, Smoltz and Baldelli is not ineffectiveness, it's injury. And all indications (considering the Red Sox do their homework on this) is that these players do not have injuries holding them back anymore.

They're ready and able to get Boston that World Series ring in a year where they have two heavyweights on their back in the Yankees and Rays. What the Yankees and Rays may not be counting on, however, is that the Sox, as presently constituted, could be better than them.

Cafardo’s Latest: Baldelli, Smoltz close

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe is reporting that Rocco Baldelli and the Boston Red Sox are close to agreeing on terms for the Rhode Island native to become the fourth outfielder for 2009. The St. Petersburg Times reported earlier this evening that Baldelli was likely to sign soon, and Peter Gammons later reported that Rocco and the Red Sox "close."

Cafardo is also reporting the team is likely to announce a deal with 42-year old veteran John Smoltz. Sources involved with negotiations indicate Smoltz with get a one year, $5.5 million deal with the potential to make $10 million in 2009. Smoltz is likely to return by early May and has a desire to be a starter.

Boston-area resource for baseball books

Nothing too substantive here, but a definite find for anyone in the Boston area. In Burlington, MA, about a 5…

Using xBABIP and IF/F to predict some Sox’s 2009 numbers

A month ago, Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix collaborated together to come up with a new statistic -- xBABIP. For batters, a .300 BABIP is not a reliable benchline (as it is for pitchers), nor is there one standard benchline across all batters. They have to be personalized, which Dutton and Bendix did.

David Ortiz looks to be in line for a monster regression to the mean... except in this case, regression is a good thing. You can expect a .300 average as a reasonable forecast next year for Big Papi.

Check out the numbers behind the reasoning for Big Papi, plus some interesting numbers on Jason Bay, Julio Lugo and others...