Upon hearing of the feats of Clay Buchholz last night in Louisville for the Pawtucket Red Sox, I tweeted my gut reaction as follows: “Clay Buchholz just made his statement. It is time for the Red Sox to proverbially “sh!t or get off the pot”.
For Red Sox fans under a rock, Clay Buchholz followed up his dominant Spring Training by cruising through AAA hitters, culminating in last night’s near perfect game. Buchholz retired the first 24 hitters before a leadoff single in the 9th inning derailed his effort. To date, Buchholz is 3-0 in the minors this season with a 1.30 ERA and 49 strike outs vs. only 12 walks in 48.1 innings pitched.
To be fair, I am not sure how much context can really be added to the current situation regarding Clay. Pegged as the top Red Sox prospect since entering the system in 2005, Buchholz captured Red Sox fans imagination with a historic no-hitter at Fenway Park only two years later. Buchholz struggled in 2008 with a spot in the rotation his for the taking and confidence shaken by his first experience of failure was sent back to Portland and then Pawtucket to work his way through mechanical issues that seemed to be effecting his control.
Since then, all Buchholz has done at each step of Winter League, Spring Training or in the Minors is dominate.
Given the abundance of starting pitching at the Major League level with Brad Penny occupying the five hole, John Smoltz looming in the wings on track for a mid-June return to a Major League mound, and Justin Masterson having proved an effective end of the rotation starter, along with Junichi Tazawa and Michael Bowden behind him in the Minors, where does that leave Clay?
Buchholz has nothing left to “prove” in AAA. Yet, at the same time, given his last experience at the Major League level, still has much to prove at the Major League level. His ceiling is as high as they come, a projected #1 starter talent with all the ability of other high level youngsters like David Price and Joba Chamberlain. Remember, it was Buchholz along with Jon Lester who were so untouchable in trade that Johan Santana ended up in New York.
The idea of having the safety blanket that is Clay Buchholz waiting in case of (and a likely) DL stint from one of the current Red Sox starters is comforting. In this league, it has been proven time and time again that you can never be too abundant in starting pitching and just when you think you are something happens that proves otherwise.
But the time to find out what you have in Clay Buchholz moving forward is being forced upon the Red Sox.
I don’t know how to “make” room for Buchholz at the Major League level given Penny’s recent effectiveness and the locked in spots of the other four starters. The logical assumption would be to scope the market for Brad Penny and see if there’s a taker that can return some middle infield help (whether it be backup or in a package for a shortstop). But I wouldn’t be surprised if the perception of Penny’s value was met with skepticism by many trade partners at this point.
The other thought, posed articulately by Cameron at CSNNE’s Wicked Good Sports blog today, is to explore the potential haul Buchholz could bring with his value at an incredible high.
I tend to think that, if the Red Sox weren’t likely to deal Buchholz in the past, why would they do so now? Looking past this season, there is no Smoltz, Penny and Tim Wakefield (while he may pitch until he’s 75) isn’t a bankable rotation spot year after year. Add to that Josh Beckett’s contract situation and Buchholz’s presence in the organization has more and more value.
Could Clay Buchholz land a Victor Martinez or Adrian Gonzalez? I think so. Should the Red Sox consider trading him? I think his long term value in the organization is greater than his value in return of a trade. Do you think the Twins would like to have Matt Garza back right now? How about the Mets and Scott Kazmir (and yes…I cherry picked two examples)?
I leave you with this thought. While we as fans can clamor for action and the desire to capitalize on Buchholz right now, the Red Sox front office has a more clearly articulated series of short, mid and long term strategies that have Clay Buchholz right in the center of them. While it hasn’t been spoken to the public or to the media, it’s a very safe assumption that the Red Sox long term plans for Clay Buchholz have been spoken to him. I don’t think he’s pitching in Pawtucket without the knowledge of when and under what situations he would be called up to the Major Leagues. I also don’t think that timetable is particularly performance dependent at this point.
This is a difficult situation to manage….but it’s ripe with upside for the Red Sox organization and one that I’ll manage dealing any time it wishes to present itself.
