The Red Sox host Toronto for a three game set starting Friday. While Toronto began the season strong, they have since faded far from the race, falling under .500 – standing 20 ½ games behind the Yankees.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but this seems to be a recurring theme for the Jays: strong starts but unkept promise, as they again fade in July. They stood first in the division on May 23rd.
But I digress. The Sox face a slumping Blue Jays team, losers of their last six going into Thursday. Despite the slump, they are a talented team with a good pitching staff and decent offense. Their bats rank 12th in the MLB against righties (.269/.333/.432) and 13th against lefties (.269/.330/.440).
The Jays bring talented rookies Scott Richmond and Ricky Romero, and the suddenly pedestrian Roy Halladay to the mound to face off against Beckett, Buchholz, and Lester.
This week features another great Sunday matchup as perennial Cy Young contender Roy Halladay faces off against Jon Lester. This battle of aces is better than last week’s Sabathia-Beckett showcase.
Much of this matchup’s luster is lost, however, as Toronto is nowhere near playoff contention. At least the game will be meaningful in Boston. Great lineup. Poor timing.
Now, on to the games.
Friday, Game 1:
The Sox bring ace 1a, Josh Beckett, to the mound to continue his stellar 2009 season. While his last outing against the Yanks wasn’t his best, he should be fine for Friday. He’s the better pitcher in this matchup, by a considerable margin, though Richmond is no slouch.
Richmond brings a 4.09 ERA (4.47 FIP) against Boston for Friday’s game. Turning 30 on Sunday, this Blue Jays rookie was signed out of the independent leagues in 2008, making his premier later in the year. Richmond has good stuff and command, with a 91-92 mph fastball, good slider, curve, and change up.
He is an underrated pitcher and a relative unknown, despite his 8.08 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9. He may give the Sox bats trouble, but not too much.
This will be a good contest, and the Sox should take the opener.
Projected Score: Red Sox – 4.74 Blue Jays – 4.58 Series 1-0 Sox
Saturday, Game 2:
Toronto sends talented youngster Ricky Romero to the hill to take on Clay Buchholz. Buchholz looks to rebound from a tough start his last time out, where he gave up 7 runs in 4.2 IP.
Romero has had a great rookie season, posting a 3.91 ERA (4.47 FIP), with a 6.78 K/9 and 3.56 BB/9. While fellow rookie Scott Richmond has had the better season, Romero is the better prospect. He has posted a great groundball rate (51.8% Ground Balls) and gets a fair share of swings and misses (77.9% contact rate).
Romero can lose his handle on the strike zone at times (47.6% zone percentage), which bears watching. He still has the edge over Buchholz in this matchup, however, though it should go down to the wire.
Game 2 should go in favor of the Blue Jays, tying the series at 1-1.
Projected Score: Blue Jays – 5.44 Red Sox – 4.78 Series Tied 1-1
Sunday, Game 3:
Sox fans should thank the Baseball Gods that they are privy to yet another of the best pitching matchups this season. Roy Halladay, among the best pitchers of the last decade, faces off against Jon Lester, perhaps the best young lefty in the game.
Halladay is another of Toronto’s extreme ground ball pitchers and combines great stuff with even better command. With a 7.78 K/9 and microscopic 1.17 BB/9, Halladay has earned his 3.03 ERA (3.09 FIP) on the year.
Few pitchers in the MLB are better than Halladay, who looks to be a sure-fire Hall of Famer whenever he decides to call it a career. Only the most special players are so discussed while still in their prime, but Halladay is worthy of such praise.
On the other hand, Lester will give the Doc a run for his money. He may even have the edge if Halladay’s last two poor outings are indicative of his future results (last two starts: 11 IP, 11 ER, but 15 K and 3 BB).
In the end, expect Halladay to be ROY HALLADAY and post his usual dominating line. Lester should do the same, which will produce an exhilarating afternoon of baseball. The Blue Jays seem to have the upper hand in Game 3, but after this showdown of aces, you may be too blown away to care who wins.
Projected Score: Blue Jays – 3.86 Red Sox – 3.69 Series 2-1 Blue Jays
This series could go either way, hinging on Game Three’s outcome. Game 2 looks pretty firmly in Toronto’s hands, while Game 1 is surprisingly close (though I suspect it won’t be as close as the numbers suggest.)
The season is coming down to the wire and, with the proximity of the teams in the Wild Card race, the Sox need to win just about every series through the end of the season.
Notes:
-Going into Thursday, the Sox stand 2.5 games in front of Texas and 4 up on Tampa in the Wild Card. The Yankees maintain a comfortable 6 game lead in the AL East.
-Tim Wakefield looked great in his first start since returning from the DL, showing no ill effects of his recent injuries. Wake provides needed relief to the struggling rotation and should slate in as the Number 3 starter for the foreseeable future… or until he gets injured again.
-According to ESPN’s Baseball Tonight, Victor Martinez used a first baseman’s mitt when catching Wakefield on Wednesday. That’s smart baseball – do whatever gets the job done.
This solves the question of whether Martinez would be able to catch a knuckleballer, which Varitek has proven time and again he is unable to do.
-How great it is to see David Ortiz hit a walk-off home run like the days of old. Looking very comfortable at the plate, he hit 2 homeruns on Wednesday. His bat could be heating up.
-Junichi Tazawa takes on talented lefty John Danks, Thursday. It should be a tough one for the Sox, as Tazawa continues to struggle in his transition to the Major Leagues. If you have a weak stomach, skip the game and catch the highlights on SportsCenter.
As always, have a great weekend and root hard for the Home Towne Team. In a dogfight for the wild card, they could use every break they can get.