With the conclusion of the 2009 MLB Rule 4 Draft signing period, it is time to look at the Sox final bounty.
Included are links, scouting reports and bonuses, as well as analysis...
1-28 OF Reymond Fuentes $1,134,000
Johnny Damon has played much better, on the wrong side of 30, then most would have expected. In fact, he has been a better player the past two seasons, than he was the previous two. But how could anyone have foreseen that? How could anyone have known that he would age so well?
The Red Sox made a choice to let Damon walk, they let him accept more money. And that is the other part of this equation; the Yankees offered him more money and an extra year if I recall. So naturally, Damon went elsewhere.
But comparing him straight up to Drew isn't necessarily fair. Coco Crisp was Damon's successor, not Drew. Crisp was brought in, and the results were mixed. Sure, he couldn't hit much at all. But Crisp was arguably the most valuable defender in all of baseball during a 2007 World Series run that resulted in a bunch of rings. Crisp was then moved to give the role to Ellsbury of course. So let us just say that it could be much worse in center field. Ellsbury is still learning the game, and should be a solid all-around player, eventually.
Luck hasn't been on his side, I will give him that. Penny has had to deal with a .326 BABIP, while surrendering line drives on only 18 percent of batted balls against. And his LOB percentage is at 66, which is far too low. Eventually, he should strand a few more base-runners.
But it is his love with the fastball, and the home run that is killing him. Do you know how often Penny throws the fastball? 73 percent of the time! This is the American League East, Brad. There has to be somewhat of a reliance on the breaking stuff too. Maybe he doesn't feel comfortable throwing it. And he doesn't always seem to have command of it. But his curveball has a "Pitch Type Value" of -15.4. That is horrendous.
Point is, he has no viable pitch outside of the fastball, and at times he even struggles with that. That is why he is so reliant on it. he simply cannot do anything positive with the breaking ball.
So far is seems that way.
Keith Law responded to a question in his chat yesterday, asking whether or not Buchholz's Groundball percentage is real or not. Law's response:
"I only saw one outing but I could believe it. His arm slot was a little lower and his fastball had more life than I'd seen in the past (and it was harder - 92-96)."
I had been thinking about this, and Evan mentioned it as well. But would the Red Sox be better off letting Jason Bay walk? Would they be better off taking the draft picks, finding a one-year stopgap. And hopefully letting Josh Reddick take over the position, at a very cheap price, and under club control for a while?
Look, we all know there is risk in expecting young players to contribute before they might be ready. Clay Buchholz was supposed to be the guy in 2008, supposed to be that ace. But he wasn't, and still isn't--although improved. Simply put, we don't know how good Josh Reddick will be. We expect big things, or good things, but we don't know. So putting faith in prospects does have its risks.
However, signing veterans to long term contracts also has risks. Jason Bay is not an up-the-middle defender. He is not 26--although not old by any means either. And he is a sub-par defender according to any defensive metric that matters. As he may not be atrocious in left, but he is far from good. And corner outfielders do impact a game much less than the premium positions do, at least in terms of run prevention.