Buster Olney’s column today deals with players who could be impacted by arbitration offers. For example, Boston is expected to offer Billy Wagner arbitration, and Olney’s panel expects that offer (Wagner is a Type-A free agent, meaning the Sox would get a first round pick of any team he signs with unless that team is finished with one of the 15 worst records in 2009) to depress Wagner’s value.
More interesting to me is Rich Harden:

Four of six [on the panel] predict that the Cubs will not offer him arbitration. Said one executive: “I think [the Cubs] are tired of the uncertainty, and there is a fair chance he would accept if they offered it to him. They’ve got other things they need to do, and they wouldn’t want to get locked into a $9 million to $10 million salary with him.” Said an NL official: “He’s got ‘Red Sox’ written all over him — the Cubs won’t sign him, and the Red Sox will bring him on board for a decent base salary and some incentives.”

Obviously, Boston likes signing people coming off injuries or poor performance with a past successful history to base salaries with aggressive incentives.
The Harden-to-Boston rumor is not new.
The payoff for Harden, 27 (!!!), could be huge. This is a guy who can strike out anyone… provided he gets on the field. Boston really only has Beckett, Lester and Dice-K penned in for next year. Wakefield could retire, you can’t rule out Buchholz being traded and there are no other clear candidates. Harden could be a fit.