Today, we’re going to look at two rookie pitchers that are testing free agency. One is certain to join a major league team. The other… not so much. Let’s tackle the former first.
AROLDIS CHAPMAN
Chapman is believed to be 21 and is a left-hander out of Cuba, defecting this past July. If you watched the WBC, you would have seen Chapman represent Cuba.
There is no question that Chapman has electric stuff — he holds the record for fastest pitch in Cuban history, being clocked at 102. He’s also been called one of the three greatest pitchers currently not in the major leagues along with Yu Darvish of Japan and new National Stephen Strasburg.
Chapman just recently established residency in Andorra, a tiny country wedged between Spain and France.
He’s certain to get heavy interest from virtually every team, although it will come down to a big-market team to sign him. Chapman isn’t considered ready for the majors, but he’s close.
Numerous reports have unsurprisingly indicated Boston is interested in Chapman. Several scouts have expressed doubt of Chapman’s potential longevity — or effectiveness — at the major-league level, but you can say that about every pitcher at some point. 102-mph fastballs on a left-hander’s 21-year old body do not come around often.
Without judging if Boston should make an all-out effort to sign Chapman, ensuring they beat out every other offer (that would include the Mets and Yankees), I think Chapman is a logical fit in Boston.
When I say a logical fit in Boston, I’m primarily thinking of two things: the short- and long-term future of the Boston rotation, and the current situation of Boston’s high-level farm system.
As for the current situation in Boston’s farm system, the Sox don’t have as many players able to step in and produce as they have in years past. You saw that manifest itself in certain ways this season, namely Junichi Tazawa and Aaron Bates. Adding Chapman to the Triple-A roster with a promise to bring him up no later than Sept. 1 and tapping into his potential long-term could majorly address pitching depth.
Certainly with Tim Wakefield penciled into the No. 5 rotation spot and the off-chance of a low-risk, high-reward pitcher such as Rich Harden bring brought in, there’s no shortage of pitching depth that can be amassed.
YUSEI KIKUCHI
Yusei Kikuchi, 18, starred in Japan’s annual high-school baseball tournament, called the Koshien Tournament. It’s actually the same tournament that Dice-K made a big splash in.
Kikichi apparently throws 94 miles an hour and is deciding whether or not to sign with a major league team or enter the NPB (Japan’s version of the MLB) via the draft. If he opts to stay at home and perfect his craft, he will be bound to the team for 10 years, which is a long time. Age 28 certainly isn’t the end of Kikuchi’s career, but he could theoretically miss out on some significant money.
Of course, as part of drafting Kikuchi, some NPB clubs are willing to guarantee Kikuchi be posted after a certain period of time. While the allure of home may be too much to pass up, several major league clubs are hoping he does.
There are eight major league clubs poised to meet with Kikuchi: the Red Sox, Dodgers, Rangers, Giants, Yankees, Mets and Mariners.
While Kikuchi is very intriguing, I am actually going to recommend that the club pass on Kikuchi if it comes down to either Chapman or the Japanese left-hander. I’m suggesting this for two reasons.
First is the Japanese connection. I’m a little leery of going after Japanese pitchers after the experience with Dice-K and his refusal to conform to American training. I’m not really suggesting that one method is particularly better than the other, but I do know you need to do what your employer tells you to do. Boston, at least publicly, has shown a great willingness in being flexible with Matsuzaka’s regimen — and is returning no compromise in return. That’s changed, but do we want to go through that again?
The flip side of this is that I havent heard of any problems with Junichi Tazawa. Not only that, but given that Kikuchi is just 18, he’s young enough that he hasn’t settled into a particular regimen yet and may not be adamant about following Japanese conditioning.
That’s a shaky argument at best, though, which is why I put far more stock into the second argument, which is that I view Chapman as the better pitcher, period. Never mind in a better position to help Boston immediately: the better pitcher.
Signing both is well within Boston’s ability, but to do that, significant investment in the payroll of the major league team is likely to be compromised, which would be a great disappointment as it would mean Boston is opting to hold the team together and give it another go in 2010. While the team would clearly be competitive, it wouldn’t be among the elite. Call me snobby or spoiled, but I want my team to be elite.
To invest significantly into major league payroll and yet still keep one of the players in play, you would have to go with just one pitcher unless you thought Chapman could make a more immediate impact than what I am seeing. In addition, Chapman is virtually certain to get a nice haul — a more significant one than Kikuchi. Again, this is assuming Kikuchi even wants to come across the big pond. Could price play a factor? It might.
Chapman, Kikuchi, or neither? It’s a question that will face Theo Epstein this winter. How would you answer it?