Bowden has lost a bit of his “prospect” status, but he was ranked very high on lists just last year. He continues this year at Minor League Ball being ranked fifth on the Red Sox with a B Grade. He has a comparison of Jeff Suppan, but that is still very valuable. I think his ceiling is higher and PECOTA has his top comp as Kevin Slowey.
The difference between these two comps is about 0.5 in their ERA. Going from a 4.75 ERA to a 4.25 is a fairly good expectation for a career from Bowden. His low ground ball rate is pretty sure to make him stay around this zone.
Bowden has fallen in value this year based on what fans saw in only 16 innings resulting in a 9.56 ERA. There are reasons to be concerned, but his ERA in a 8 game cup of coffee as a reliever is not an accurate portrait.
The reason to be concerned with Bowden is his control started to fail in 2009 at Triple-A and his short call up. His K/9 has been under 7 since he has graduated Double-A and his walk rate has been troublesome around 3 walks per 9. As a fly ball pitcher who’s best pitch is his curve ball he must improve his control.
As with many young pitchers they struggle to control their walks when they reach the majors. We are seeing this with Clay Buchholz and he is just starting to turn this around. This is often why many pitchers have “breakouts” in their third year. It often takes 1-2 years to manage their walk totals. He also has shown a tendency to struggle upon promotion to a new level, but follows up with much better results the second time repeating a level
When you look at his minor league track record you can see he has shown this control before meaning he should have the ability to do it now. This is why I disagree with his Suppan comparison and think of him more as a potential Slowey. His strikeout numbers are still superior to Suppan giving him a chance to be better.
With all of this he should be the Red Sox first option to fill in a opening in the rotation. This includes taking a spot before Tim Wakefield who in my opinion must prove his health first to gain a spot in the rotation. Even if he is healthy his projections don’t make picking him over Bowden an easy choice.
Bowden ahead of Wakefield
Wakefield’s Projection from Bill James is very optimistic with 6 wins and an ERA of 4.03, but only 93 IP. His FIP is 4.65, but he would be expected to have an ERA lower than that due to the ability of Knuckleballs to effect BABIP. CHONE is much less optimistic with an ERA of 5.04 and giving 16 runs above replacement or 1.6 WAR in 26 Games.
The projections for Bowden are a bit more consistent with Bill James giving him a 4.71 ERA and 4.44 FIP in 130 IP. CHONE gives him a 4.92 ERA and the exact same number of runs above replacement at 16, which gives him the same value as Wakefield.
Bowden versus Tazawa and Bonser
Bowden will return to Triple-A to start this year and attempt to solve his control problems baring a large change before April. While there he needs to separate himself from Junichi Tazawa and Boof Bonser in the minors and regain his control. Neither is projected to be superior in 2010, although Baseball Prospectus top 11 prospects ranked Tazawa ahead of Bowden.
I still think Bowden is a potential solid pitcher with the ability to supply 2-3 WAR per season as a full time starter. This is very valuable and probably more so than Daisuke Matsuzaka in the long run. I also understand he has some very real limitations and could be a back of the rotation, league average starter.
That still has value, but is also an important reminder on how light our pitching prospects list has become. Looking back at the list by John Sickels at Minor League Ball we can see only four pitchers are ranked B- or better. Casey Kelly (B+), Bowden (B), Junichi Tazawa (B) and Stolmy Pimentel (B-/C+). This is getting light after years of stellar pitching prospects constantly on the way.
Conclusion
If the starting rotation stays as it is then Bowden is headed back to Triple-A for sure, but lately he has been considered someone worth nothing more than being a throw in for any trade. While he isn’t at the level of a Jon Lester or Buchholz he is someone we should have in our plans. If he can improve his control his number in Pawtucket I see no reason he can’t contribute to the 2010 Red Sox if needed.