As Theo Epstein exited Fenway Park under a gorilla suit, the Red Sox were busy trading away their best prospect, shortstop Hanley Ramirez, to the Florida Marlins for third baseman Mike Lowell (considered a throw-in that became much more) and starting pitcher Josh Beckett, an oft-injured 25-year old.
The hope was that Beckett could be the Sox’s new ace, with Pedro Martinez off to New York. The first year in the American League was not kind to the fastball-happy Beckett, who served up 36 home runs en route to the club finishing in third place. Despite Beckett’s struggles, the club moved to sign him to a three-year, $30 million extension ($12 million club option for 2010), which was a hometown discount.
In 2007, Beckett moved away from his fastball (going from using it 69 percent of the time to 63) and finished second in the Cy Young voting, leading Boston to a World Series championship. His 20-7 record along with a 3.27 ERA and second consecutive (and total, as well) season with at least 200 innings pitched along with Mike Lowell’s fantastic season caused many to forget about Hanley Ramirez.
One remarkable thing to note in 2007 is that Beckett suddenly became a control artist, averaging a 1.8 BB/9, a mark he would repeat in 2008. In 2006, that number was 3.3, which wasn’t even a career high and not out of line from 2004 (3.1) and 2005 (2.9.)
His transcendent playoffs, in which he won four games over 30 innings, along with his previous championship with the Marlins in 2003 over the Yankees, positioned him as one of the top three pitchers in the game.
Beckett’s workload seemed to catch up to him in 2008, as he missed time due to injuries. He finished 12-10 with a 4.03 ERA and got shellacked in both the ALDS against the Angels and ALCS against the Rays. Beckett actually was victimized by a high BABIP (Batting Average Balls in Play, something that should always be at .300 with deviations due to poor/excellent defense or just plain luck) — .327 — and posted an xFIP (essentially ERA stripped down to the essentials of what a pitcher controls himself, with no outside influences) of 3.24.
He made a comeback in 2009, throwing a career-high 212 innings with a 3.86 ERA and 17-6 record. While Beckett’s K/9 was at just 8.4 (better than 2006’s 6.9, but still one of his lower marks), those 212 innings meant Beckett finished just one strikeout shy of 200. In addition, Beckett’s BABIP was .302, but his xFIPÂ was 3.63, suggesting he was unlucky.
Beckett has been an ace for the Red Sox since 2007. Some might argue he is miscast as a No. 1 starter and point to his 3.71 ERA over the last three years (throwing out his 2006 stinker season). However, Beckett has been victimized by luck more than not. He did not play behind a good defense in 2009, and once he got past his dreadful (7.22 ERA in the first five starts) start, was excellent save for a bout with the flu in August.
Beckett will be a free agent after the season, at which point he will command a contract similar to John Lackey’s, his rotation-mate for 2010. It’s likely Boston will elect to move on, especially if Clay Buchholz can continue his emergence, which makes one wonder about Beckett’s long-term ability to hold up and produce (especially since Boston committed to John Lackey, a similar pitcher who has more recent injury questions).
The right-hander’s average velocity of his fastball was 94.1 mph, continuing a trend of declining velocities since joining Boston. His “pitch value” of 2.0 on his fastball ranks as the second poorest of his career (-4.0) after two straight years of near-20 marks. This upcoming season will be a referendum on Beckett’s value to evaluate if 2009 was the beginning of his second, less-effective, phase of his career.
Whatever 2010 brings, Beckett was a very valuable asset from 2007-2009. The surface numbers don’t exactly show it, but watching Beckett pitch these last few years was the closest to seeing an “event” that any Red Sox pitcher has gotten to since Pedro. (Of course, Pedro represents the pinnacle of “event pitching.”) Beckett has a shiny World Series ring on his finger for his fantastic work in 2007, and while Hanley Ramirez will continue to terrorize baseball long after Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett have removed their Boston duds, the recovery from the 2005-2006 seasons into what Boston is today wouldn’t have been possible without Beckett.