Just before the deadline the Red Sox signed Jonathan Papelbon for the 2010 season at $9.35 million dollars. With a contract value like that it’s highly unlikely Papelbon is trade material. He has 2011 still under arbitration and with another raise I can’t see him going anywhere.
His contract this year looks like a solid deal. He has been worth 3.2, 2.2, 3.0 and 1.9 WAR over the past four years. Those values have resulted in values of $12, $9.1, $13.5 and $8.8 million in value to the team. That all makes $9.3 million seem like a very good deal. This doesn’t leave any expected value over his contract though. In other words he is being paid his value and makes trading him a difficult proposition.
The next step is looking ahead to his next arbitration case. As long as he maintains his health he can expect a raise again in 2011. Likely to the $12-14 million dollar range. That number makes his value a bit tougher to take. This fact also makes his trade value right now even less. Not many teams can afford to take a $9.3 million dollar closer let alone one due $12-14 in another year.
This is why the Papelbon trade rumors have gone away and never had much interest from the beginning. There are plenty of teams interested in adding a proven closer, but when you have to pay full value and give up players it’s not likely to get much interest.
This pretty much confirms Papelbon will be our closer through 2011 with Daniel Bard the number one contender. They make a great setup/closer combo and solidify the bullpen. Tony Massoratti on the other hand seems to think going year to year is a horrible idea.
The greater and more important questions here concern Papelbon’s value to the Red Sox over the last four full seasons and whether the club will miss him if and when he leaves. This is where the Red Sox have a far more difficult decision than anyone might be willing to acknowledge.
I don’t see it this way at all. If Papelbon was done after 2010 it would be a bit more stressful and Bard would only have this year to prove himself. That is not the case and based on Papelbon’s few declining skills these past few years I can’t see why a team would want to lock him up long term right now.
His fastball and slider dropped in speed from 2008 last year and his splitter has declined in use for the third straight year. This has led to him becoming a one pitch pitcher going with fastballs 80% of the time. This has led to his fastball being less effective and in 2009 it’s run per 100 value was a career low of 1.43.
Looking at his pitch results he also had trouble hitting the zone. His zone% was a career low 51% and all these extra pitches out of the zone are not fooling anyone. He has induced swings on pitches out of the zone over 31% of the time the past two years, but in 2009 it dropped to 26.2%
This is why his BB/9 jumped from a great rate of 1.04 in 2008 to the pedestrian 3.18 of 2009. He still has the strikeouts to keep himself above the rest and that is seen with a 3.05 FIP, but he can’t be the elite Papelbon of previous years.
Based on his history of health and some warning of decline sen in 2009 I can’t see any reason the Red Sox would look to buy out any of Papelbons free agency years right now. If the fear is he might head to New York in 2012 I wouldn’t be so worried. The Sox will make a strong bid for him if they think he can maintain his skills and still have 2 full years to figure that out.