For a team that won the 2009 league championship while standing atop the AL East leaderboards for much of the past decade, the team would seem, at first glance, bereft of sleepers.
Not so, however, even for these ’09 defending champions. A favorite even at this early juncture in Spring Training, the club could get even better by the time the season rolls around.
SP/RP Phil Hughes
Hughes is – and for quite some time has been – one of the best young pitchers in affiliated baseball. It was not so long ago – three years to be exact – that Phil Hughes was the best pitching prospect in the game, edging out Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey for that honor.
Though hamstring injuries and bouts of wildness slowed down his progress during the ’07 and ’08 campaigns, Hughes came back with a vengeance last season, reminding all bystanders why he was once such a highly touted prospect.
His 96 strikeouts against just 28 walks in 86.0 innings erased any memory of his two previous subpar seasons. An uptick in his fastball by 2.5 miles per hour and the addition of a cut fastball were the primary benefactors of this success, resulting in a contact percentage that dropped 10 points (87.4 contact percentage in ’08 versus 77.6 contact percentage in ’09) and an O-Swing percentage that rose by over 9 points (16.5 O-Swing percentage in ’08; 25.7 O-Swing percentage in ’09).
Still just 23 years old, the Yankees owe it to Hughes and to themselves to give the hurler another shot at a full-time rotation gig. Worth 2.2 wins last season, that number could easily swell to four or five if he pitches up to his potential.
The real question going forward is whether or not he’ll be afforded the opportunity to seize the fifth rotation slot. Before the signing of Javier Vazquez, it seemed like a foregone conclusion. Now, the situation is a bit murkier, as Joba Chamberlain returns for 2010 as incumbent and favorite.
Perhaps a second pressing question exists, however – whether Hughes can sustain his strikeout rates in a move to the rotation. This will depend on the success of Hughes’ cutter and the relative velocity attached to his fastball. The 2.5 mph rise in his heater is not likely to survive a move to the rotation, so we will quickly find out whether the cutter is enough of an out-pitch to make up for this presumed and impending loss in velocity.
Fangraphs.com seems to think that his cutter is such an offering, in fact, in was his best per hundred pitches last season. However, everything in pitching depends on context – and that context will change dramatically when hitters face a diminished four-seam fastball, knowing they have that extra split second to decide what pitch is coming and whether or not to swing.
Hopefully the Yankees don’t read this article and don’t put Hughes in the rotation. Maybe disinformation would have been the best route for this segment of AL East Sleepers. Then again, maybe that was what we were thinking all along…
DH Nick Johnson
A former New York farmhand and first baseman, Johnson makes a triumphant and surprising return to the Bronx for 2010.
During the six seasons since Johnson last donned pinstripes, he has battled numerous injuries while maintaining most of the traits that made him one of the better Yankee hitters in 2003. His discerning batter’s eye is still one of the best in the league, while he excels at making quality, consistent contact despite the overall lack of power he displayed last season.
It is this last point – lack of power –that makes Johnson such an interesting acquisition.
With the extensive coverage afforded the New York’s wind currents, short right porch, and resulting surge in home runs exhibited by multiple Yankee veterans, Johnson becomes an ideal candidate for a breakout.
With a batting eye refined enough to draw 100-plus walks, a 15-20 home run season could bring Johnson’s OPS into the high .800s – just about what they got out of Hideki Matsui last year. Considering that Johnson was able to post an .831 OPS while hitting just 8 longballs, Johnson could compete with Adam Lind to have the best season of any DH in the division.
If the power can come around, it all comes to Johnson’s brittle frame to hold up over the course of a full season – something he has never been able to do. The move to DH will certainly help but, as always in baseball, there are no guarantees.
SP Joba Chamberlain
After a blistering hot start to his career in ’07, Joba has cooled off considerably.
Pitching out of relief his rookie year, Chamberlain was able to “let it all hang out” blowing away hitters with a 97 mph heater. He racked up a 12.75 K/9 that year, walking just 6 batters in 24.0 innings.
He was superb again in 2008, posting a 2.65 FIP ERA while sending down 10.58 per nine via the K.
2009 was a different story, however, as the workload of starting full-time took its toll on his fastball velocity, dropping to a career-low average of 92.5 mph. Still a very good heater, it was not quite the 95.0 mph offering of 2008 – and certainly not the 97.0 mph megalith of ’07.
Coming into 2010, Chamberlain’s role with the club is in just as much question as Hughes’. With just one rotation spot available for two well-qualified pitchers, the fate of each relies on the fate of the other – and Joba could just as easily find himself in the rotation as he could in the bullpen.
Perhaps the hurler would benefit from a move back to the bullpen. Since his debut in the majors, he’s been at his best form in relief, while the affect on his stuff bears out this point. Though any such move involves the risk of the Yankees giving up on the potential of his developing into a great starter in their fifth slot, he could be even better in the 8th inning than Hughes was.
If the 2007 and 2008 seasons are any indicator, the transition will be seamless and Joba will reclaim his place among the most dominant pitchers in the league. It all seems to be depending on that fastball velocity, as it was likely the missing piece from his 2009 year.
If Hughes works out in the rotation and Joba returns to the ‘pen, the Yankees could have one of the deepest pitching staffs in all of baseball – in both the rotation and in relief.
Aside from the top five of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Javier Vazquez, and Hughes/Chamberlain, the team has plenty of arms contracted to step up in the case of ineffectiveness or injury. With Hughes and Chamberlain, the club has six quality starters. Add in contingency plans Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre, there is little that can impair the Yankees’ rotation in 2010.
On the other hand, the bullpen is nearly as strong as the starting staff.
With Mariano Rivera confidently manning the ninth while Chamberlain or Hughes securing the eighth frame, they can choose either David Robertson (2009: 43.2 IP, 63 K, 23 BB, 3.05 FIP ERA) or Alfredo Aceves (84.0 IP, 69 K, 16 BB, 3.75 FIP) to take the seventh frame. With Damaso Marte and Mark Melancon/Boone Logan/Edwar Ramirez rounding out the ‘pen this team should have no troubling finishing out close games.
Taking into account how superlative the New York offense has always been and is expected to be, there is little standing in the team’s way of another playoff appearance – and possibly a second consecutive World Series Championship.
Hopefully, for the sake of our beloved home town team, this will not be the case. However, with the across-the-board talent and depth featured by this team, it would seem like an upset if this team’s season ended before the ALCS playoff.