Monday saw the Red Sox claim Casey Fien from the Detroit Tigers. Of little note is the dropping of Gaby Hernandez to clear a spot. I am a bit shocked to see a pitcher with such solid peripherals in the minors given up on by the Tigers. Perhaps there is something they know, but let’s see what Fien adds to the Red Sox.
He’s a two pitch reliever with a 91 mph fastball and a 80 mph slider thrown 25% of the time. His slider did not show well in his small sampling with a run value of -5.47 per hundred thrown, but a much bigger sample is needed to decide if it needs work. This isn’t very exciting as his speed isn’t great and with only two pitches hitters can just wait out the fastball.
His minor league numbers though show he has something to contribute. His ERA in the minors stands at 3.04 and 3.21 in Triple-A. Obviously as a reliever his sample sizes are small, but a minor league FIP of 2.86 and 3.20 in Triple-A. Then why would the Tigers give up on Fien as a reliever?
The Tigers made the cut to clear space for Johnny Damon, but why was he the man to go? In Triple-A he had a very solid K/9 of 10.2 and only walked 2.3 batters in every nine innings. Those numbers are very impressive even for Triple-A and worth a full shot in the majors.
He only got 11.1 IP so far at the major league level all in 2009 and while he had a rough time that isn’t much of a sample size. His strikeout rate fell to a more pedestrian 7.15. It’s better than the 7.0 league average last year. At the same time he had the predictable control issues that many first year players have when the reach the big leagues. His walk rate in this sample was 4.76 as he struggled to control his pitches.
Let’s remind ourselves though that this is 11.1 IP and not a single number or peripheral should be considered real as they have yet to stabilize. This means we should be weighing his minor league numbers much more heavily. A big reason for looking to CHONE projections to see what to expect as they will appropriately weigh his previous data. His counting stats are solid with a record of 3-3 and 46 strikeouts to 21 walks. This would give him a 4.19 ERA based on still being in Detroit. His runs above replacement number of three, which is park and league neutral, would rank him tied with Manny Delcarmen’s CHONE projection.
That puts him him as the number five/six reliever in the pen if the Sox decided to pass on a lefty specialist. It’s also interesting to note that his strikeout numbers are a reminder of Delcarmen in the minors, but his control has been better there. Delcarmen has struggled at all levels to maintain solid walk rates at or below 3 and could force him into a competition with Fien this spring.
A spot of caution is his fly ball tendencies as he does not force many grounders. In the minors he totaled 39 percent ground balls across all levels. That leaves him with very little room for error. The less strikeouts he can get the more fly balls going out of Fenway we would see if he made the team. Of course if his K/BB was strong enough than this wouldn’t be a huge concern.
Delcarmen does have the advantage of being a solid ground ball pitcher with a major league average of 47 percent. That can allow him to have walk problems and still be better than average in the bullpen. This is why I think Delcarmen is still the number five reliever in 2010, but only if he is truly healthy and effective. If he continues to show decreased velocity and strikeout rates under 7 per nine inning than Fien could be a surprise addition this April.