It’s rumored that the Red Sox and Josh Beckett are in strong discussions on a new contract according to Gordon Edes at ESPN Boston. The target is the end of spring training to finalize something or wait until the offseason. I have made my opinion on Beckett’s contract known at Yawkey Way Academy and came to a value of 4/$64, but this was before we saw the changes to the 2010 market and the addition of John Lackey.
It’s tough to say what Beckett will demand in these talks and how much injury language he will accept. The first point we must remember is that while Lackey came to Boston at 5/$82.5 he was a free agent and required top dollar. The Red Sox know that 2010 will include Beckett in the fold, but if Beckett wants long term security he might have to give up a few dollars.
Another point is that a new contract would up his payment in 2010. He is currently set to be paid $12.5 million this year, but any extension would likely include a solid raise in the 2010 season.
Some have mentioned the Phillies Roy Halladay as a comparison and his 3/$60 as a ceiling for Beckett. While his WAR has been 6.5, 5.0 and 5.3 the past three years and worth around $20 million it’s tough to justify him for that level of money over Lackey.
I still think 4/$64 is a solid proposal for Beckett, but there is some room to look at a Lackey deal. To get the fifth year Lackey had to take language protecting the Red Sox from injury before the fifth year. If he is injured his fifth year becomes a league minimum contract. So his deal is actually a 4/$66 million with a “vesting” option for an extra year.
OK, so we got that settled and Beckett should be an easy choice for 5/$80 with injury protection in the final year, right? Well there might be one reason to sign Beckett now at this or even a slightly higher cost that I ignored when I said to let Beckett head to free agency. That reason is the much better defense that might make him that much harder to sign in free agency.
Since joining the Red Sox his ERA has been 4.26 and even if you remove his fluky 2006 it was 3.90. At the same time his FIP in those seasons was 3.71 meaning he has been more than a half a run worse than his skill. Defense has been a prime reason for that with BABIP of .270, .316, .327 and .302 respectively in the past four years.
With the current roster around Beckett his BABIP has a great chance to be on the better side of .300 and be a benefit to him. If his ERA responds by beating his FIP for the first time since 2006 he could be overvalued by other teams as a free agent.
There are still plenty of reasons to wait on Beckett including the free agent market including Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb as competition. The Red Sox will be losing nearly $80 million from the payroll, excluding arbitration, and have the ability to make pitches to more than just Beckett.
It looks like we might not get to that point though as the talks continue. If they do extend Beckett the Red Sox have essentially locked up the rotation as it stand through 2012 and excluding Daisuke Matsuzaka they would have the top four through 2013 or 2014. One less thing to discuss next year I guess as we look at options at Catcher, Third Base and DH.